SWC75
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This year I will be again charting how teams have done “against ranked teams”, which is something that always comes up at the end of the year when the arguments over who should be in the 4 team national championship playoff takes place. As usual, this is not meant to end those arguments, just to give those making them something to look at in forming their opinions.
I’m going to do it using the procedure I started a couple years ago. The original procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)
Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference between this procedure and the original one if that I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to try to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.
WEEK 15
Louisiana State beat #4 Georgia 37-10 = +49 points
Clemson beat #23 Virginia 62-17 = +48 points
Oregon beat #5 Utah 37-15 = +43 points
Ohio State beat #8 Wisconsin 34-21 = +31 points
Oklahoma beat #7 Baylor 30-23 = +26 points
Baylor lost to #6 Oklahoma 23-30 = +13 points
Wisconsin lost to #1 Ohio State 21-34 = +12 points
Memphis beat #20 Cincinnati 29-24 = +11 points
Cincinnati lost to #17 Memphis 24-29 = +4 points
Louisiana lost to #21 Appalachian State 38-45 = -2 points
Georgia lost to #2 Louisiana State 10-37 = -3 points
Utah lost to #13 Oregon 15-37 = -9 points
Hawaii lost to #19 Boise State 10-31 = -14 points
Virginia lost to #3 Clemson 17-62 = -22 points
Comment: The big boys put up some big number sin the conference championships.
TOP 25
Ohio State +171 points
Louisiana State +154 points
Auburn +103 points
Oklahoma +89 points
Wisconsin +89 points
Clemson +76 points
Georgia +68 points
Michigan +68 points
Oregon +52 points
Southern California +52 points
Notre Dame +51 points
Alabama +48 points
Florida +48 points
Arizona State +47 points
Memphis +45 points
Texas Christian +42 points
Kansas State +41 points
Washington +41 points
Texas +37 points
Virginia Tech +35 points
Iowa +34 points
Penn State +34 points
Iowa State +31 points
U of Miami +28 points
Baylor +26 points
Syracuse has -10 points
SU opponents: Liberty -20, Maryland has -83, Clemson +76, Western Michigan -27, Holy Cross none, North Carolina State -55 points, Pittsburgh +18, Florida State -21, Boston College -53, Duke -35, Louisville -3, Wake Forest -26
The worst team so far is Rutgers with -115 points.
Comments: I decided to do something a little extra this week. People are suggesting Clemson must be over-rated because they haven’t played many ranked teams. That’s true but after the North Carolina game, they have been crushing their opposition just like they did last year after their game with us. They won their last 7 regular season games last year by a combined 358-84, (51-12), then crushed Pittsburgh in the ACC title game 42-10, then moved into the playoff and rolled over Notre Dame 30-3 and Alabama 44-16. That’s a 10-0 run by an average score of 47-11. This year they seemed in low gear through the North Carolina game, which they rallied to win. 21-20. Since then they are 8-0, (415-78) , an average of 52-10. Their ART jumped to #76 But there are still five teams ranked ahead of them in this list. They’ve be favored to beat most of them. It’s not their fault that their most of their opponents haven’t been ranked. If they are treating everyone they play like they were a punch-press, it’s entirely possible that they will continue to do so against the top teams from other conferences. I think that Clemson and Ohio State are the best teams in the country and LSU, which had been winning shoot-outs, may have risen to that level with their blow-out wins over Arkansas, Texas A&M and Georgia
What if I flipped the ART concept and looked at how teams have performed as a ranked team? Here is Clemson’s record this year:
Georgia Tech lost to #1 Clemson 14-52 = -13 points
Texas A&M lost to #1 Clemson 10-24 = +11 points
Syracuse lost to #1 Clemson 6-41 = -10 points
Charlotte lost to #1 Clemson 10-52 = -17 points
North Carolina lost to #1 Clemson 20-21 = +24 points
Florida State lost to #2 Clemson 14-45 = -7 points
Louisville lost to #3 Clemson 10-45 = -12 points
Boston College lost to #4 Clemson 7-59 = -30 points
Wofford lost to #4 Clemson 14-59 = -23 points
North Carolina State lost to #5 Clemson 10-55 = -24 points
Wake Forest lost to #3 Clemson 3-52 = -26 points
South Carolina lost to #3 Clemson 3-38 = -12 points
Virginia lost to #3 Clemson 17-62 = -22 points
TOTAL: -161 points
Now let’s look at Ohio State:
Florida Atlantic lost to #5 Ohio State 21-45 = -3 points
Cincinnati lost to #5 Ohio State 0-42 = -21 points
Indiana lost to #6 Ohio State 10-51 = -21 points
Miami University lost to #6 Ohio State 5-76 = -51 points
Nebraska lost to #5 Ohio State 7-48 = -20 points
Michigan State lost to #4 Ohio State 10-34 = -2 points
Northwestern lost to #4 Ohio State 3-52 = -27 points
Wisconsin lost to #3 Ohio State 7-38 = -8 points
Maryland lost to #1 Ohio State 14-73 = -34 points
Rutgers lost to #2 Ohio State 21-56 = -11 points
Penn State lost to #2 Ohio State 17-28 = +13 points
Michigan lost to #1 Ohio State 27-56 = -4 points
Wisconsin lost to #1 Ohio State 21-34 = +12 points
TOTAL: -177 points
So the Buckeyes are still #1. Let’s look at LSU:
Georgia Southern lost to #6 Louisiana State 3-55 = -32 points
Texas lost to #6 Louisiana State 38-45 = +13 points
NW Louisiana lost to #4 Louisiana State 14-65 = -29 points
Vanderbilt lost to #4 Louisiana State 38-66 = -6 points
Utah State lost to #5 Louisiana State 6-42 = -19 points
Florida lost to #5 Louisiana State 28-42 = +7 points
Mississippi State lost to #2 Louisiana State 13-36 = +1 points
Auburn lost to #2 Louisiana State 20-23 = +21 points
Alabama lost to #2 Louisiana State 41-46 = +19 points
Mississippi lost to #1 Louisiana State 37-58 = +4 points
Arkansas lost to #1 Louisiana State 20-56 = -11 points
Texas A&M lost to #2 Louisiana State 7-50 = -19 points
Georgia lost to #2 Louisiana State 10-37 = -3 points
TOTAL: -54 points
Oklahoma:
Houston lost to #4 Oklahoma 31-49 = +4 points
South Dakota lost to #4 Oklahoma 14-70 = -34 points
UCLA lost to #5 Oklahoma 14-48 = -13 points
Texas Tech lost to #6 Oklahoma 16-55 = -19 points
Kansas lost to #6 Oklahoma 20-45 = -5 points
Texas lost to #6 Oklahoma 27-34 = +13 points
West Virginia lost to #5 Oklahoma 14-52 = -17 points
Kansas State beat #5 Oklahoma 48-41 = +28 points
Iowa State lost to #9 Oklahoma = +16 points
Baylor lost to #10 Oklahoma 31-34 = +13 points
Texas Christian lost to #9 Oklahoma 24-28 = +13 points
Oklahoma State lost to #7 Oklahoma 16-34 = +1 point
Baylor lost to #6 Oklahoma 23-30 = +13 points
TOTAL: +13 points
As I did this, I felt that one more adjustment was appropriate. Firstly, let’s invert the numbers and say that Clemson was +161 as a ranked team against their opposition, Ohio State +177, LSU +54 and Oklahoma -13. Now I’ll add in these schools own points against ranked teams to account for their schedule. Here is the result:
Ohio State +349 points
Clemson +237 points
LSU +208 points
Oklahoma +76 points
From this I would say that Clemson may be as good as they were last year but that Ohio State is still better and is probably one of the best teams of all time. That has the potential to be a heck of a game but I remember 2004 when I thought Southern-California Oklahoma would be a heck of a game, (two “blue blood programs 12-0, with potentially two Heisman trophy winners in each backfield, (Matt Leinhardt and Reggie Bush vs. Jason White and Adrian Peterson- Peterson left for the pros before he could win it but the others all hoisted the Trophy). But that one wound up 55-19. The next year Texas was there in Oklahoma’s place and people thought the same thing would happen but the result is not most people’s choice for the greatest game ever. LSU should handle Oklahoma setting up either a battle between Joe Burrow and his old schools, (and maybe the #1-#2 vote getters in the Heisman if Chase Young reaches #2 as has been predicted), or a battle of the bands to see who can play “Hold That Tiger” the best- or the most times.
I’m going to do it using the procedure I started a couple years ago. The original procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)
Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference between this procedure and the original one if that I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to try to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.
WEEK 15
Louisiana State beat #4 Georgia 37-10 = +49 points
Clemson beat #23 Virginia 62-17 = +48 points
Oregon beat #5 Utah 37-15 = +43 points
Ohio State beat #8 Wisconsin 34-21 = +31 points
Oklahoma beat #7 Baylor 30-23 = +26 points
Baylor lost to #6 Oklahoma 23-30 = +13 points
Wisconsin lost to #1 Ohio State 21-34 = +12 points
Memphis beat #20 Cincinnati 29-24 = +11 points
Cincinnati lost to #17 Memphis 24-29 = +4 points
Louisiana lost to #21 Appalachian State 38-45 = -2 points
Georgia lost to #2 Louisiana State 10-37 = -3 points
Utah lost to #13 Oregon 15-37 = -9 points
Hawaii lost to #19 Boise State 10-31 = -14 points
Virginia lost to #3 Clemson 17-62 = -22 points
Comment: The big boys put up some big number sin the conference championships.
TOP 25
Ohio State +171 points
Louisiana State +154 points
Auburn +103 points
Oklahoma +89 points
Wisconsin +89 points
Clemson +76 points
Georgia +68 points
Michigan +68 points
Oregon +52 points
Southern California +52 points
Notre Dame +51 points
Alabama +48 points
Florida +48 points
Arizona State +47 points
Memphis +45 points
Texas Christian +42 points
Kansas State +41 points
Washington +41 points
Texas +37 points
Virginia Tech +35 points
Iowa +34 points
Penn State +34 points
Iowa State +31 points
U of Miami +28 points
Baylor +26 points
Syracuse has -10 points
SU opponents: Liberty -20, Maryland has -83, Clemson +76, Western Michigan -27, Holy Cross none, North Carolina State -55 points, Pittsburgh +18, Florida State -21, Boston College -53, Duke -35, Louisville -3, Wake Forest -26
The worst team so far is Rutgers with -115 points.
Comments: I decided to do something a little extra this week. People are suggesting Clemson must be over-rated because they haven’t played many ranked teams. That’s true but after the North Carolina game, they have been crushing their opposition just like they did last year after their game with us. They won their last 7 regular season games last year by a combined 358-84, (51-12), then crushed Pittsburgh in the ACC title game 42-10, then moved into the playoff and rolled over Notre Dame 30-3 and Alabama 44-16. That’s a 10-0 run by an average score of 47-11. This year they seemed in low gear through the North Carolina game, which they rallied to win. 21-20. Since then they are 8-0, (415-78) , an average of 52-10. Their ART jumped to #76 But there are still five teams ranked ahead of them in this list. They’ve be favored to beat most of them. It’s not their fault that their most of their opponents haven’t been ranked. If they are treating everyone they play like they were a punch-press, it’s entirely possible that they will continue to do so against the top teams from other conferences. I think that Clemson and Ohio State are the best teams in the country and LSU, which had been winning shoot-outs, may have risen to that level with their blow-out wins over Arkansas, Texas A&M and Georgia
What if I flipped the ART concept and looked at how teams have performed as a ranked team? Here is Clemson’s record this year:
Georgia Tech lost to #1 Clemson 14-52 = -13 points
Texas A&M lost to #1 Clemson 10-24 = +11 points
Syracuse lost to #1 Clemson 6-41 = -10 points
Charlotte lost to #1 Clemson 10-52 = -17 points
North Carolina lost to #1 Clemson 20-21 = +24 points
Florida State lost to #2 Clemson 14-45 = -7 points
Louisville lost to #3 Clemson 10-45 = -12 points
Boston College lost to #4 Clemson 7-59 = -30 points
Wofford lost to #4 Clemson 14-59 = -23 points
North Carolina State lost to #5 Clemson 10-55 = -24 points
Wake Forest lost to #3 Clemson 3-52 = -26 points
South Carolina lost to #3 Clemson 3-38 = -12 points
Virginia lost to #3 Clemson 17-62 = -22 points
TOTAL: -161 points
Now let’s look at Ohio State:
Florida Atlantic lost to #5 Ohio State 21-45 = -3 points
Cincinnati lost to #5 Ohio State 0-42 = -21 points
Indiana lost to #6 Ohio State 10-51 = -21 points
Miami University lost to #6 Ohio State 5-76 = -51 points
Nebraska lost to #5 Ohio State 7-48 = -20 points
Michigan State lost to #4 Ohio State 10-34 = -2 points
Northwestern lost to #4 Ohio State 3-52 = -27 points
Wisconsin lost to #3 Ohio State 7-38 = -8 points
Maryland lost to #1 Ohio State 14-73 = -34 points
Rutgers lost to #2 Ohio State 21-56 = -11 points
Penn State lost to #2 Ohio State 17-28 = +13 points
Michigan lost to #1 Ohio State 27-56 = -4 points
Wisconsin lost to #1 Ohio State 21-34 = +12 points
TOTAL: -177 points
So the Buckeyes are still #1. Let’s look at LSU:
Georgia Southern lost to #6 Louisiana State 3-55 = -32 points
Texas lost to #6 Louisiana State 38-45 = +13 points
NW Louisiana lost to #4 Louisiana State 14-65 = -29 points
Vanderbilt lost to #4 Louisiana State 38-66 = -6 points
Utah State lost to #5 Louisiana State 6-42 = -19 points
Florida lost to #5 Louisiana State 28-42 = +7 points
Mississippi State lost to #2 Louisiana State 13-36 = +1 points
Auburn lost to #2 Louisiana State 20-23 = +21 points
Alabama lost to #2 Louisiana State 41-46 = +19 points
Mississippi lost to #1 Louisiana State 37-58 = +4 points
Arkansas lost to #1 Louisiana State 20-56 = -11 points
Texas A&M lost to #2 Louisiana State 7-50 = -19 points
Georgia lost to #2 Louisiana State 10-37 = -3 points
TOTAL: -54 points
Oklahoma:
Houston lost to #4 Oklahoma 31-49 = +4 points
South Dakota lost to #4 Oklahoma 14-70 = -34 points
UCLA lost to #5 Oklahoma 14-48 = -13 points
Texas Tech lost to #6 Oklahoma 16-55 = -19 points
Kansas lost to #6 Oklahoma 20-45 = -5 points
Texas lost to #6 Oklahoma 27-34 = +13 points
West Virginia lost to #5 Oklahoma 14-52 = -17 points
Kansas State beat #5 Oklahoma 48-41 = +28 points
Iowa State lost to #9 Oklahoma = +16 points
Baylor lost to #10 Oklahoma 31-34 = +13 points
Texas Christian lost to #9 Oklahoma 24-28 = +13 points
Oklahoma State lost to #7 Oklahoma 16-34 = +1 point
Baylor lost to #6 Oklahoma 23-30 = +13 points
TOTAL: +13 points
As I did this, I felt that one more adjustment was appropriate. Firstly, let’s invert the numbers and say that Clemson was +161 as a ranked team against their opposition, Ohio State +177, LSU +54 and Oklahoma -13. Now I’ll add in these schools own points against ranked teams to account for their schedule. Here is the result:
Ohio State +349 points
Clemson +237 points
LSU +208 points
Oklahoma +76 points
From this I would say that Clemson may be as good as they were last year but that Ohio State is still better and is probably one of the best teams of all time. That has the potential to be a heck of a game but I remember 2004 when I thought Southern-California Oklahoma would be a heck of a game, (two “blue blood programs 12-0, with potentially two Heisman trophy winners in each backfield, (Matt Leinhardt and Reggie Bush vs. Jason White and Adrian Peterson- Peterson left for the pros before he could win it but the others all hoisted the Trophy). But that one wound up 55-19. The next year Texas was there in Oklahoma’s place and people thought the same thing would happen but the result is not most people’s choice for the greatest game ever. LSU should handle Oklahoma setting up either a battle between Joe Burrow and his old schools, (and maybe the #1-#2 vote getters in the Heisman if Chase Young reaches #2 as has been predicted), or a battle of the bands to see who can play “Hold That Tiger” the best- or the most times.
