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Message: [QUOTE="SWC75, post: 3212331, member: 289"] This year I will be again charting how teams have done “against ranked teams”, which is something that always comes up at the end of the year when the arguments over who should be in the 4 team national championship playoff takes place. As usual, this is not meant to end those arguments, just to give those making them something to look at in forming their opinions. I’m going to do it using the procedure I started a couple years ago. The original procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple: 1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1. (Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.) Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference between this procedure and the original one if that I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to try to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance. WEEK 15 Louisiana State beat #4 Georgia 37-10 = +49 points Clemson beat #23 Virginia 62-17 = +48 points Oregon beat #5 Utah 37-15 = +43 points Ohio State beat #8 Wisconsin 34-21 = +31 points Oklahoma beat #7 Baylor 30-23 = +26 points Baylor lost to #6 Oklahoma 23-30 = +13 points Wisconsin lost to #1 Ohio State 21-34 = +12 points Memphis beat #20 Cincinnati 29-24 = +11 points Cincinnati lost to #17 Memphis 24-29 = +4 points Louisiana lost to #21 Appalachian State 38-45 = -2 points Georgia lost to #2 Louisiana State 10-37 = -3 points Utah lost to #13 Oregon 15-37 = -9 points Hawaii lost to #19 Boise State 10-31 = -14 points Virginia lost to #3 Clemson 17-62 = -22 points Comment: The big boys put up some big number sin the conference championships. TOP 25 Ohio State +171 points Louisiana State +154 points Auburn +103 points Oklahoma +89 points Wisconsin +89 points Clemson +76 points Georgia +68 points Michigan +68 points Oregon +52 points Southern California +52 points Notre Dame +51 points Alabama +48 points Florida +48 points Arizona State +47 points Memphis +45 points Texas Christian +42 points Kansas State +41 points Washington +41 points Texas +37 points Virginia Tech +35 points Iowa +34 points Penn State +34 points Iowa State +31 points U of Miami +28 points Baylor +26 points Syracuse has -10 points SU opponents: Liberty -20, Maryland has -83, Clemson +76, Western Michigan -27, Holy Cross none, North Carolina State -55 points, Pittsburgh +18, Florida State -21, Boston College -53, Duke -35, Louisville -3, Wake Forest -26 The worst team so far is Rutgers with -115 points. Comments: I decided to do something a little extra this week. People are suggesting Clemson must be over-rated because they haven’t played many ranked teams. That’s true but after the North Carolina game, they have been crushing their opposition just like they did last year after their game with us. They won their last 7 regular season games last year by a combined 358-84, (51-12), then crushed Pittsburgh in the ACC title game 42-10, then moved into the playoff and rolled over Notre Dame 30-3 and Alabama 44-16. That’s a 10-0 run by an average score of 47-11. This year they seemed in low gear through the North Carolina game, which they rallied to win. 21-20. Since then they are 8-0, (415-78) , an average of 52-10. Their ART jumped to #76 But there are still five teams ranked ahead of them in this list. They’ve be favored to beat most of them. It’s not their fault that their most of their opponents haven’t been ranked. If they are treating everyone they play like they were a punch-press, it’s entirely possible that they will continue to do so against the top teams from other conferences. I think that Clemson and Ohio State are the best teams in the country and LSU, which had been winning shoot-outs, may have risen to that level with their blow-out wins over Arkansas, Texas A&M and Georgia What if I flipped the ART concept and looked at how teams have performed as a ranked team? Here is Clemson’s record this year: Georgia Tech lost to #1 Clemson 14-52 = -13 points Texas A&M lost to #1 Clemson 10-24 = +11 points Syracuse lost to #1 Clemson 6-41 = -10 points Charlotte lost to #1 Clemson 10-52 = -17 points North Carolina lost to #1 Clemson 20-21 = +24 points Florida State lost to #2 Clemson 14-45 = -7 points Louisville lost to #3 Clemson 10-45 = -12 points Boston College lost to #4 Clemson 7-59 = -30 points Wofford lost to #4 Clemson 14-59 = -23 points North Carolina State lost to #5 Clemson 10-55 = -24 points Wake Forest lost to #3 Clemson 3-52 = -26 points South Carolina lost to #3 Clemson 3-38 = -12 points Virginia lost to #3 Clemson 17-62 = -22 points TOTAL: -161 points Now let’s look at Ohio State: Florida Atlantic lost to #5 Ohio State 21-45 = -3 points Cincinnati lost to #5 Ohio State 0-42 = -21 points Indiana lost to #6 Ohio State 10-51 = -21 points Miami University lost to #6 Ohio State 5-76 = -51 points Nebraska lost to #5 Ohio State 7-48 = -20 points Michigan State lost to #4 Ohio State 10-34 = -2 points Northwestern lost to #4 Ohio State 3-52 = -27 points Wisconsin lost to #3 Ohio State 7-38 = -8 points Maryland lost to #1 Ohio State 14-73 = -34 points Rutgers lost to #2 Ohio State 21-56 = -11 points Penn State lost to #2 Ohio State 17-28 = +13 points Michigan lost to #1 Ohio State 27-56 = -4 points Wisconsin lost to #1 Ohio State 21-34 = +12 points TOTAL: -177 points So the Buckeyes are still #1. Let’s look at LSU: Georgia Southern lost to #6 Louisiana State 3-55 = -32 points Texas lost to #6 Louisiana State 38-45 = +13 points NW Louisiana lost to #4 Louisiana State 14-65 = -29 points Vanderbilt lost to #4 Louisiana State 38-66 = -6 points Utah State lost to #5 Louisiana State 6-42 = -19 points Florida lost to #5 Louisiana State 28-42 = +7 points Mississippi State lost to #2 Louisiana State 13-36 = +1 points Auburn lost to #2 Louisiana State 20-23 = +21 points Alabama lost to #2 Louisiana State 41-46 = +19 points Mississippi lost to #1 Louisiana State 37-58 = +4 points Arkansas lost to #1 Louisiana State 20-56 = -11 points Texas A&M lost to #2 Louisiana State 7-50 = -19 points Georgia lost to #2 Louisiana State 10-37 = -3 points TOTAL: -54 points Oklahoma: Houston lost to #4 Oklahoma 31-49 = +4 points South Dakota lost to #4 Oklahoma 14-70 = -34 points UCLA lost to #5 Oklahoma 14-48 = -13 points Texas Tech lost to #6 Oklahoma 16-55 = -19 points Kansas lost to #6 Oklahoma 20-45 = -5 points Texas lost to #6 Oklahoma 27-34 = +13 points West Virginia lost to #5 Oklahoma 14-52 = -17 points Kansas State beat #5 Oklahoma 48-41 = +28 points Iowa State lost to #9 Oklahoma = +16 points Baylor lost to #10 Oklahoma 31-34 = +13 points Texas Christian lost to #9 Oklahoma 24-28 = +13 points Oklahoma State lost to #7 Oklahoma 16-34 = +1 point Baylor lost to #6 Oklahoma 23-30 = +13 points TOTAL: +13 points As I did this, I felt that one more adjustment was appropriate. Firstly, let’s invert the numbers and say that Clemson was +161 as a ranked team against their opposition, Ohio State +177, LSU +54 and Oklahoma -13. Now I’ll add in these schools own points against ranked teams to account for their schedule. Here is the result: Ohio State +349 points Clemson +237 points LSU +208 points Oklahoma +76 points From this I would say that Clemson may be as good as they were last year but that Ohio State is still better and is probably one of the best teams of all time. That has the potential to be a heck of a game but I remember 2004 when I thought Southern-California Oklahoma would be a heck of a game, (two “blue blood programs 12-0, with potentially two Heisman trophy winners in each backfield, (Matt Leinhardt and Reggie Bush vs. Jason White and Adrian Peterson- Peterson left for the pros before he could win it but the others all hoisted the Trophy). But that one wound up 55-19. The next year Texas was there in Oklahoma’s place and people thought the same thing would happen but the result is not most people’s choice for the greatest game ever. LSU should handle Oklahoma setting up either a battle between Joe Burrow and his old schools, (and maybe the #1-#2 vote getters in the Heisman if Chase Young reaches #2 as has been predicted), or a battle of the bands to see who can play “Hold That Tiger” the best- or the most times. [/QUOTE]

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