SWC75
Bored Historian
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
- Messages
- 32,489
- Like
- 62,666
The last few years I’ve attempted to quantify team’s performances against ranked teams, (historically a big factor in decisions made about getting into playoffs) with a system that gives points to teams for the ranking of their opponents and adds or subtracts the point differential in their games, (adds in a win, subtracts in a loss). The ‘ranking’ points are 25 for playing a #1 ranked team, 24 for playing a #2 ranked team, etc., down to 1 point for playing a 25th ranked team. These points are easily computed by subtracting the ranking number from 26, (26-1 = 25; 26-25 =1, etc.). Over the course of the season, I add the points earned by each team in their games against ranked teams as a sort of standings but have always maintained that this is just one thing to look at in evaluating the team, not a final overall ranking.
Last year I added a new wrinkle to the basketball version of this. I totaled the points each ranked team’s opponent earned against them, (positive or negative) to get a measure of how well the ranked teams performed in these games. I then added those points together with the points against ranked teams to make my NCAA picks and it worked out pretty well so I decided to try it for football. The numbers will gain meaning each week and should be very interesting by the end of the season.
One thing I’ve found is that when ranked teams play each other, it works better if I just keep track of “against ranked teams” Example:
#5 Georgia beat #3 Clemson 10-3 Georgia +30 Clemson -30
#3 Clemson lost to #5 Georgia 3-10 Clemson +14 Georgia -14
If you add them together Georgia gets +16 and Clemson -16 yet the game was decided by 7 points.
So the first figure is “against ranked teams and the second figure “as a ranked team against an unranked team”.
WEEK 7 (10/15-16/21)
Purdue beat #2 Iowa 24-7 Purdue +41 Iowa -41
Georgia beat #11 Kentucky 30-13 Georgia +32 both ranked
Auburn beat #17 Arkansas 38-23 Auburn +24 Arkansas -24
Utah beat #18 Arizona State 35-21 Utah +22 Arizona State -22
Baylor beat #19 Brigham Young 38-24 Baylor +21 Brigham Young -21
Louisiana State beat #20 Florida 49-42 Louisiana St +13 Florida -13
Indiana lost to #10 Michigan State 15-20 Indiana +11 Michigan State -11
California lost to #9 Oregon 17-24 California +10 Oregon -10
Oklahoma State beat #25 Texas 32-24 Oklahoma State +9 both ranked
Kentucky lost to #1 Georgia 13-30 Kentucky +8 both ranked
Tennessee lost to #13 Mississippi 26-31 Tennessee +8 Mississippi -8
Texas lost to #12 Oklahoma State 24-32 Texas +6 both ranked
Texas Christian lost to #4 Oklahoma 31-52 Texas Christian +1 Oklahoma -1
San Jose St lost to #24 San Diego St 13-19 San Jose State -4 San Diego State +4
Central Florida lost to #2 Cincinnati 21-56 Central Florida -11 Cincinnati +11
Missouri lost to #21 Texas A&M 14-35 Missouri -16 Texas A&M +16
Mississippi State lost to #5 Alabama 9-49 Mississippi -19 Alabama +19
Boston College lost to #22 North Carolina St 7-33 Boston College -22 North Carolina St +22
Top 10 Against Ranked Teams through Week 2
Georgia +149
Alabama +95
Iowa +89
Arkansas +54
Penn State +54
Stanford +51
Notre Dame +44
Georgia Tech +42
Texas +42
Purdue +41
Syracuse is at +4 after the Wake Forest game.
SU’s opponents: Ohio none Rutgers -27 Albany none Liberty none Florida State +14 Wake Forest none Clemson +14 Virginia Tech +32 Boston College -27 Louisville -1 North Carolina State +23 Pittsburgh none
The worst team on this list is Vanderbilt at -74
Top 10 as a Ranked Team Against Unranked Teams through Week 2
Coastal Carolina +150
Ohio State +73
Auburn +68
Cincinnati +68
Georgia +66
Mississippi +54
Michigan +47
Nebraska +33
Alabama +29
San Diego State +27
Syracuse has not been ranked so they have had no opportunity to accumulate points on this list.
SU’s opponents: Ohio none Rutgers none Albany none Liberty none Florida State none Wake Forest -3 Clemson -6 Virginia Tech -3 Boston College none Louisville none North Carolina State +26 Pittsburgh none
The worst team on this list is Notre Dame at -38
Last year I added a new wrinkle to the basketball version of this. I totaled the points each ranked team’s opponent earned against them, (positive or negative) to get a measure of how well the ranked teams performed in these games. I then added those points together with the points against ranked teams to make my NCAA picks and it worked out pretty well so I decided to try it for football. The numbers will gain meaning each week and should be very interesting by the end of the season.
One thing I’ve found is that when ranked teams play each other, it works better if I just keep track of “against ranked teams” Example:
#5 Georgia beat #3 Clemson 10-3 Georgia +30 Clemson -30
#3 Clemson lost to #5 Georgia 3-10 Clemson +14 Georgia -14
If you add them together Georgia gets +16 and Clemson -16 yet the game was decided by 7 points.
So the first figure is “against ranked teams and the second figure “as a ranked team against an unranked team”.
WEEK 7 (10/15-16/21)
Purdue beat #2 Iowa 24-7 Purdue +41 Iowa -41
Georgia beat #11 Kentucky 30-13 Georgia +32 both ranked
Auburn beat #17 Arkansas 38-23 Auburn +24 Arkansas -24
Utah beat #18 Arizona State 35-21 Utah +22 Arizona State -22
Baylor beat #19 Brigham Young 38-24 Baylor +21 Brigham Young -21
Louisiana State beat #20 Florida 49-42 Louisiana St +13 Florida -13
Indiana lost to #10 Michigan State 15-20 Indiana +11 Michigan State -11
California lost to #9 Oregon 17-24 California +10 Oregon -10
Oklahoma State beat #25 Texas 32-24 Oklahoma State +9 both ranked
Kentucky lost to #1 Georgia 13-30 Kentucky +8 both ranked
Tennessee lost to #13 Mississippi 26-31 Tennessee +8 Mississippi -8
Texas lost to #12 Oklahoma State 24-32 Texas +6 both ranked
Texas Christian lost to #4 Oklahoma 31-52 Texas Christian +1 Oklahoma -1
San Jose St lost to #24 San Diego St 13-19 San Jose State -4 San Diego State +4
Central Florida lost to #2 Cincinnati 21-56 Central Florida -11 Cincinnati +11
Missouri lost to #21 Texas A&M 14-35 Missouri -16 Texas A&M +16
Mississippi State lost to #5 Alabama 9-49 Mississippi -19 Alabama +19
Boston College lost to #22 North Carolina St 7-33 Boston College -22 North Carolina St +22
Top 10 Against Ranked Teams through Week 2
Georgia +149
Alabama +95
Iowa +89
Arkansas +54
Penn State +54
Stanford +51
Notre Dame +44
Georgia Tech +42
Texas +42
Purdue +41
Syracuse is at +4 after the Wake Forest game.
SU’s opponents: Ohio none Rutgers -27 Albany none Liberty none Florida State +14 Wake Forest none Clemson +14 Virginia Tech +32 Boston College -27 Louisville -1 North Carolina State +23 Pittsburgh none
The worst team on this list is Vanderbilt at -74
Top 10 as a Ranked Team Against Unranked Teams through Week 2
Coastal Carolina +150
Ohio State +73
Auburn +68
Cincinnati +68
Georgia +66
Mississippi +54
Michigan +47
Nebraska +33
Alabama +29
San Diego State +27
Syracuse has not been ranked so they have had no opportunity to accumulate points on this list.
SU’s opponents: Ohio none Rutgers none Albany none Liberty none Florida State none Wake Forest -3 Clemson -6 Virginia Tech -3 Boston College none Louisville none North Carolina State +26 Pittsburgh none
The worst team on this list is Notre Dame at -38
