SWC75
Bored Historian
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This year I will be again charting how teams have done “against ranked teams”, which is something that always comes up at the end of the year when the arguments over who should be in the NCAA tournament start. As usual, this is not meant to end those arguments, just to give those making them something to look at in forming their opinions. This is just one thing to look at. But I think it’s a big thing.
I’m going to do it a bit differently this year. The old procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)
Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference between this year and last year if that I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to try to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.
WEEK 18 (3/5-11/18)
Alabama beat #16 Auburn 81-63 = +28 points
Virginia beat #12 North Carolina 71-63 = +22 points
San Diego State beat #22 Nevada-Reno 90-73 = +21 points
Providence beat #3 Xavier 75-72 = +20 points
Brigham Young beat #20 St. Mary’s 85-72 = +19 points
Clemson lost to #1 Virginia 58-64 = +19 points
Houston lost to #6 Cincinnati 55-56 = +19 points
Kansas beat #18 West Virginia 81-70 = +19 points
North Carolina beat #24 U of Miami 82-65 = +19 points
Houston beat #11 Wichita State 77-74 = +18 points
Kentucky beat #13 Tennessee 77-72 = +18 points
North Carolina lost to #1 Virginia 63-71 = +17 points
North Carolina beat #5 Duke 74-69 = +16 points
West Virginia beat #14 Texas Tech 66-63 = +15 points
Providence lost to #2 Villanova 66-76 = +14 points
Virginia beat #19 Clemson 64-58 = +13 points
Arkansas beat #23 Florida 80-72 = +11 points
Mississippi State lost to #13 Tennessee 59-62 = +10 points
Duke lost to #12 North Carolina 69-74 = +9 points
Louisville lost to #1 Virginia 58-75 = +8 points
Memphis lost to #8 Cincinnati 60-70 = +8 points
Southern Methodist lost to #8 Cincinnati 51-61 = +8 points
Texas lost to #14 Texas Tech 69-73 = +8 points
Temple lost to Wichita State 81-89 = +7 points
Cincinnati beat #21 Houston 56-55 = +6 points
West Virginia lost to #9 Kansas 70-81 = +6 points
Butler lost to #2 Villanova 68-87 = +5 points
Texas Tech lost to #18 West Virginia 63-66 = +5 points
Notre Dame lost to #5 Duke 70-88 = +3 points
Oklahoma State lost to #9 Kansas 68-82 = +3 points
Davidson beat #25 Rhode Island 58-57 = +2 points
Wichita State lost to #21 Houston 74-77 = +2 points
Kansas State lost to #9 Kansas 67-83 = +1 point
Brigham Young lost to #6 Gonzaga 54-74 = 0 points
Marquette lost to #2 Villanova 70-94 = 0 points
UCLA lost to #15 Arizona 67-78 = 0 points
Boston College lost to #19 Clemson 82-90 = -1 point
UNLV lost to #22 Nevada-Reno 74-79 = -1 point
St. Joseph’s lost to #25 Rhode Island 87-90 = -2 points
U of Miami lost to #12 North Carolina 65-82 = -3 points
Southern California lost to #15 Arizona 61-75 = -3 points
Arkansas lost to #13 Tennessee 66-84 = -5 points
Baylor lost to #18 West Virginia 65-78 = -5 points
Colorado lost to #15 Arizona 67-83 = -5 points
St. John’s lost to #3 Xavier 60-88 = -5 points
Syracuse lost to #12 North Carolina 59-78 = -5 points
San Francisco lost to #6 Gonzaga 60-88 = -8 points
Virginia Commonwealth lost to #25 Rhode Island 67-76 = -8 points
Central Florida lost to #21 Houston 56-84 = -23 points
Top 68
Texas Tech (24-9) +176 points 3 seed
Alabama (19-15) +168 points 9 seed
Michigan (28-7) +161 points 3 seed
Duke (26-7) +154 points 2 seed
Oklahoma (18-13) +129 points 10 seed
Texas (19-14) +129 points 10 seed
Kansas (27-7) +122 points 1 seed
Virginia (31-2) +119 points 1 seed
Michigan State (29-4) +118 points 3 seed
Florida (20-12) +117 points 6 seed
North Carolina (25-10) +117 points 2 seed
North Carolina State (21-11) +114 points 9 seed
West Virginia (24-10) +111 points 5 seed
Villanova (30-4) +108 points 1 seed
Florida State (20-11) +105 points 9 seed
Texas A&M (20-12) +105 points 7 seed
Oklahoma State (19-14) +99 points
Xavier (28-5) +98 points 1 seed
Purdue (28-6) +94 points 2 seed
Houston (26-7) +93 points 6 seed
Providence (21-13) +92 points 10 seed
St. John’s (16-17) +89 points
Penn State (21-13) +88 points
Virginia Tech (21-11) +87 points 8 seed
Arkansas (23-11) +86 points 7 seed
Creighton (21-11) +85 points 8 seed
Marquette (19-13) +84 points
Texas Christian (21-11) +84 points 6 seed
Seton Hall (21-11) +73 points 8 seed
U of Miami (22-9) +71 points 6 seed
Butler (20-13) +68 points 10 seed
Arizona State (20-11) +66 points play-in for 11 seed
Gonzaga (30-4) +65 points 4 seed
Kentucky (24-10) +65 points 5 seed
Wichita State (25-7) +64 points 4 seed
Baylor (18-14) +63 points
South Carolina (17-16) +63 points
Southern Methodist (17-16) +63 points
Clemson (23-9) +59 points 5 seed
Indiana (16-15) +58 points
Wisconsin(15-18) +56 points
Nebraska (22-10) +54 points
Tennessee (25-8) +52 points 3 seed
Ohio State (24-8) +50 points 5 seed
Syracuse (20-13) +48 points play-in for 11 seed
Georgia (18-15) +47 points
Georgia Tech (13-19) +47 points
Iowa State (13-18) +46 points
Washington (20-12) +45 points
Arizona (27-7) +42 points 4 seed
Utah (19-11) +41 points
San Diego (18-13) +38 points
Oregon (22-12) +38 points
Notre Dame (20-14) +35 points
Cincinnati (30-4) +32 points 2 seed
DePaul (11-20) +32 points
Auburn (25-7) +28 points 4 seed
Georgetown(15-15) +26 points
Wofford (21-12) +25 points
Marshall (23-10) +24 points 13 seed
Illinois (14-18) +22 points
Missouri (20-12) +22 points 8 seed
Boston College (19-15) +21 points
St. Joseph’s (16-16) +20 points
Kansas State (22-11) +19 points 9 seed
Northwestern (15-17) +19 points
UCLA (21-11) +19 points play-in for 11 seed
Vanderbilt (12-20) +18 points
Vermont (27-7) +17 points
St. Mary’s (28-5) +17 points
Maryland (19-13) +17 points
Teams in NCAA field but not in top 68 by this (highly unofficial) measure:
New Mexico State +16 points
San Diego State +15 points
St. Bonaventure +13 points
Buffalo +10 points
Rhode Island +7 points
Bucknell +5 points
Charleston +2 points
Nevada-Reno +2 points
Davidson +1 point
Loyola-Chicago 0 points
Georgia State 0 points
Iona 0 points
LIU-Brooklyn 0 points
Montana 0 points
Murray State 0 points
North Carolina Central 0 points
UNC- Greensboro 0 points
Radford 0 points
Stephen F. Austin 0 points
Wright State 0 points
MD-Baltimore County -2 points
South Dakota State -2 points
Pennsylvania -6 points
Lipscomb -28 points
Cal State-Fullerton -40 points
Texas Southern -64 points
Comments: Obviously this metric and the decisions the NCAA committee made don’t exactly align perfectly. For one thing, they don’t use the poll rankings. They use RPI and have their “quadrant” system for evaluating the opposition. Also my system gives credit for good performances in losses. I think the committee just looks at Ws and Ls. My system, being based on the pols, can inflate some numbers if there are a lot of ranked teams in the conference. The Big 12 teams boosted each other because so many of them were ranked. But how good was the Big 12 really? We played Kansas, Virginia, Duke and UNC. If you ranked those teams where would you put Kansas? I’d put them at 4th. Yet they won the Big 12. There’s nothing that’s truly 100% objective.
Could the tournament have gotten by without the 26 teams that didn’t make my Top 68? Probably. That knocks it down to 42. Take out 10 more, (including us, unfortunately) and you are down to 32. Do four 8 team regionals open week and the Final four the next week. Just another alternative to think about.
I’m going to do it a bit differently this year. The old procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)
Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference between this year and last year if that I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to try to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.
WEEK 18 (3/5-11/18)
Alabama beat #16 Auburn 81-63 = +28 points
Virginia beat #12 North Carolina 71-63 = +22 points
San Diego State beat #22 Nevada-Reno 90-73 = +21 points
Providence beat #3 Xavier 75-72 = +20 points
Brigham Young beat #20 St. Mary’s 85-72 = +19 points
Clemson lost to #1 Virginia 58-64 = +19 points
Houston lost to #6 Cincinnati 55-56 = +19 points
Kansas beat #18 West Virginia 81-70 = +19 points
North Carolina beat #24 U of Miami 82-65 = +19 points
Houston beat #11 Wichita State 77-74 = +18 points
Kentucky beat #13 Tennessee 77-72 = +18 points
North Carolina lost to #1 Virginia 63-71 = +17 points
North Carolina beat #5 Duke 74-69 = +16 points
West Virginia beat #14 Texas Tech 66-63 = +15 points
Providence lost to #2 Villanova 66-76 = +14 points
Virginia beat #19 Clemson 64-58 = +13 points
Arkansas beat #23 Florida 80-72 = +11 points
Mississippi State lost to #13 Tennessee 59-62 = +10 points
Duke lost to #12 North Carolina 69-74 = +9 points
Louisville lost to #1 Virginia 58-75 = +8 points
Memphis lost to #8 Cincinnati 60-70 = +8 points
Southern Methodist lost to #8 Cincinnati 51-61 = +8 points
Texas lost to #14 Texas Tech 69-73 = +8 points
Temple lost to Wichita State 81-89 = +7 points
Cincinnati beat #21 Houston 56-55 = +6 points
West Virginia lost to #9 Kansas 70-81 = +6 points
Butler lost to #2 Villanova 68-87 = +5 points
Texas Tech lost to #18 West Virginia 63-66 = +5 points
Notre Dame lost to #5 Duke 70-88 = +3 points
Oklahoma State lost to #9 Kansas 68-82 = +3 points
Davidson beat #25 Rhode Island 58-57 = +2 points
Wichita State lost to #21 Houston 74-77 = +2 points
Kansas State lost to #9 Kansas 67-83 = +1 point
Brigham Young lost to #6 Gonzaga 54-74 = 0 points
Marquette lost to #2 Villanova 70-94 = 0 points
UCLA lost to #15 Arizona 67-78 = 0 points
Boston College lost to #19 Clemson 82-90 = -1 point
UNLV lost to #22 Nevada-Reno 74-79 = -1 point
St. Joseph’s lost to #25 Rhode Island 87-90 = -2 points
U of Miami lost to #12 North Carolina 65-82 = -3 points
Southern California lost to #15 Arizona 61-75 = -3 points
Arkansas lost to #13 Tennessee 66-84 = -5 points
Baylor lost to #18 West Virginia 65-78 = -5 points
Colorado lost to #15 Arizona 67-83 = -5 points
St. John’s lost to #3 Xavier 60-88 = -5 points
Syracuse lost to #12 North Carolina 59-78 = -5 points
San Francisco lost to #6 Gonzaga 60-88 = -8 points
Virginia Commonwealth lost to #25 Rhode Island 67-76 = -8 points
Central Florida lost to #21 Houston 56-84 = -23 points
Top 68
Texas Tech (24-9) +176 points 3 seed
Alabama (19-15) +168 points 9 seed
Michigan (28-7) +161 points 3 seed
Duke (26-7) +154 points 2 seed
Oklahoma (18-13) +129 points 10 seed
Texas (19-14) +129 points 10 seed
Kansas (27-7) +122 points 1 seed
Virginia (31-2) +119 points 1 seed
Michigan State (29-4) +118 points 3 seed
Florida (20-12) +117 points 6 seed
North Carolina (25-10) +117 points 2 seed
North Carolina State (21-11) +114 points 9 seed
West Virginia (24-10) +111 points 5 seed
Villanova (30-4) +108 points 1 seed
Florida State (20-11) +105 points 9 seed
Texas A&M (20-12) +105 points 7 seed
Oklahoma State (19-14) +99 points
Xavier (28-5) +98 points 1 seed
Purdue (28-6) +94 points 2 seed
Houston (26-7) +93 points 6 seed
Providence (21-13) +92 points 10 seed
St. John’s (16-17) +89 points
Penn State (21-13) +88 points
Virginia Tech (21-11) +87 points 8 seed
Arkansas (23-11) +86 points 7 seed
Creighton (21-11) +85 points 8 seed
Marquette (19-13) +84 points
Texas Christian (21-11) +84 points 6 seed
Seton Hall (21-11) +73 points 8 seed
U of Miami (22-9) +71 points 6 seed
Butler (20-13) +68 points 10 seed
Arizona State (20-11) +66 points play-in for 11 seed
Gonzaga (30-4) +65 points 4 seed
Kentucky (24-10) +65 points 5 seed
Wichita State (25-7) +64 points 4 seed
Baylor (18-14) +63 points
South Carolina (17-16) +63 points
Southern Methodist (17-16) +63 points
Clemson (23-9) +59 points 5 seed
Indiana (16-15) +58 points
Wisconsin(15-18) +56 points
Nebraska (22-10) +54 points
Tennessee (25-8) +52 points 3 seed
Ohio State (24-8) +50 points 5 seed
Syracuse (20-13) +48 points play-in for 11 seed
Georgia (18-15) +47 points
Georgia Tech (13-19) +47 points
Iowa State (13-18) +46 points
Washington (20-12) +45 points
Arizona (27-7) +42 points 4 seed
Utah (19-11) +41 points
San Diego (18-13) +38 points
Oregon (22-12) +38 points
Notre Dame (20-14) +35 points
Cincinnati (30-4) +32 points 2 seed
DePaul (11-20) +32 points
Auburn (25-7) +28 points 4 seed
Georgetown(15-15) +26 points
Wofford (21-12) +25 points
Marshall (23-10) +24 points 13 seed
Illinois (14-18) +22 points
Missouri (20-12) +22 points 8 seed
Boston College (19-15) +21 points
St. Joseph’s (16-16) +20 points
Kansas State (22-11) +19 points 9 seed
Northwestern (15-17) +19 points
UCLA (21-11) +19 points play-in for 11 seed
Vanderbilt (12-20) +18 points
Vermont (27-7) +17 points
St. Mary’s (28-5) +17 points
Maryland (19-13) +17 points
Teams in NCAA field but not in top 68 by this (highly unofficial) measure:
New Mexico State +16 points
San Diego State +15 points
St. Bonaventure +13 points
Buffalo +10 points
Rhode Island +7 points
Bucknell +5 points
Charleston +2 points
Nevada-Reno +2 points
Davidson +1 point
Loyola-Chicago 0 points
Georgia State 0 points
Iona 0 points
LIU-Brooklyn 0 points
Montana 0 points
Murray State 0 points
North Carolina Central 0 points
UNC- Greensboro 0 points
Radford 0 points
Stephen F. Austin 0 points
Wright State 0 points
MD-Baltimore County -2 points
South Dakota State -2 points
Pennsylvania -6 points
Lipscomb -28 points
Cal State-Fullerton -40 points
Texas Southern -64 points
Comments: Obviously this metric and the decisions the NCAA committee made don’t exactly align perfectly. For one thing, they don’t use the poll rankings. They use RPI and have their “quadrant” system for evaluating the opposition. Also my system gives credit for good performances in losses. I think the committee just looks at Ws and Ls. My system, being based on the pols, can inflate some numbers if there are a lot of ranked teams in the conference. The Big 12 teams boosted each other because so many of them were ranked. But how good was the Big 12 really? We played Kansas, Virginia, Duke and UNC. If you ranked those teams where would you put Kansas? I’d put them at 4th. Yet they won the Big 12. There’s nothing that’s truly 100% objective.
Could the tournament have gotten by without the 26 teams that didn’t make my Top 68? Probably. That knocks it down to 42. Take out 10 more, (including us, unfortunately) and you are down to 32. Do four 8 team regionals open week and the Final four the next week. Just another alternative to think about.