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Against Ranked teams - FWIW
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[QUOTE="SWC75, post: 2528020, member: 289"] This year I will be again charting how teams have done “against ranked teams”, which is something that always comes up at the end of the year when the arguments over who should be in the NCAA tournament start. As usual, this is not meant to end those arguments, just to give those making them something to look at in forming their opinions. This is just one thing to look at. But I think it’s a big thing. I’m going to do it a bit differently this year. The old procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple: 1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1. (Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.) Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference between this year and last year if that I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to try to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance. WEEK 18 (3/5-11/18) Alabama beat #16 Auburn 81-63 = +28 points Virginia beat #12 North Carolina 71-63 = +22 points San Diego State beat #22 Nevada-Reno 90-73 = +21 points Providence beat #3 Xavier 75-72 = +20 points Brigham Young beat #20 St. Mary’s 85-72 = +19 points Clemson lost to #1 Virginia 58-64 = +19 points Houston lost to #6 Cincinnati 55-56 = +19 points Kansas beat #18 West Virginia 81-70 = +19 points North Carolina beat #24 U of Miami 82-65 = +19 points Houston beat #11 Wichita State 77-74 = +18 points Kentucky beat #13 Tennessee 77-72 = +18 points North Carolina lost to #1 Virginia 63-71 = +17 points North Carolina beat #5 Duke 74-69 = +16 points West Virginia beat #14 Texas Tech 66-63 = +15 points Providence lost to #2 Villanova 66-76 = +14 points Virginia beat #19 Clemson 64-58 = +13 points Arkansas beat #23 Florida 80-72 = +11 points Mississippi State lost to #13 Tennessee 59-62 = +10 points Duke lost to #12 North Carolina 69-74 = +9 points Louisville lost to #1 Virginia 58-75 = +8 points Memphis lost to #8 Cincinnati 60-70 = +8 points Southern Methodist lost to #8 Cincinnati 51-61 = +8 points Texas lost to #14 Texas Tech 69-73 = +8 points Temple lost to Wichita State 81-89 = +7 points Cincinnati beat #21 Houston 56-55 = +6 points West Virginia lost to #9 Kansas 70-81 = +6 points Butler lost to #2 Villanova 68-87 = +5 points Texas Tech lost to #18 West Virginia 63-66 = +5 points Notre Dame lost to #5 Duke 70-88 = +3 points Oklahoma State lost to #9 Kansas 68-82 = +3 points Davidson beat #25 Rhode Island 58-57 = +2 points Wichita State lost to #21 Houston 74-77 = +2 points Kansas State lost to #9 Kansas 67-83 = +1 point Brigham Young lost to #6 Gonzaga 54-74 = 0 points Marquette lost to #2 Villanova 70-94 = 0 points UCLA lost to #15 Arizona 67-78 = 0 points Boston College lost to #19 Clemson 82-90 = -1 point UNLV lost to #22 Nevada-Reno 74-79 = -1 point St. Joseph’s lost to #25 Rhode Island 87-90 = -2 points U of Miami lost to #12 North Carolina 65-82 = -3 points Southern California lost to #15 Arizona 61-75 = -3 points Arkansas lost to #13 Tennessee 66-84 = -5 points Baylor lost to #18 West Virginia 65-78 = -5 points Colorado lost to #15 Arizona 67-83 = -5 points St. John’s lost to #3 Xavier 60-88 = -5 points Syracuse lost to #12 North Carolina 59-78 = -5 points San Francisco lost to #6 Gonzaga 60-88 = -8 points Virginia Commonwealth lost to #25 Rhode Island 67-76 = -8 points Central Florida lost to #21 Houston 56-84 = -23 points Top 68 Texas Tech (24-9) +176 points 3 seed Alabama (19-15) +168 points 9 seed Michigan (28-7) +161 points 3 seed Duke (26-7) +154 points 2 seed Oklahoma (18-13) +129 points 10 seed Texas (19-14) +129 points 10 seed Kansas (27-7) +122 points 1 seed Virginia (31-2) +119 points 1 seed Michigan State (29-4) +118 points 3 seed Florida (20-12) +117 points 6 seed North Carolina (25-10) +117 points 2 seed North Carolina State (21-11) +114 points 9 seed West Virginia (24-10) +111 points 5 seed Villanova (30-4) +108 points 1 seed Florida State (20-11) +105 points 9 seed Texas A&M (20-12) +105 points 7 seed Oklahoma State (19-14) +99 points Xavier (28-5) +98 points 1 seed Purdue (28-6) +94 points 2 seed Houston (26-7) +93 points 6 seed Providence (21-13) +92 points 10 seed St. John’s (16-17) +89 points Penn State (21-13) +88 points Virginia Tech (21-11) +87 points 8 seed Arkansas (23-11) +86 points 7 seed Creighton (21-11) +85 points 8 seed Marquette (19-13) +84 points [B]Texas Christian (21-11) +84 points 6 seed[/B] Seton Hall (21-11) +73 points 8 seed U of Miami (22-9) +71 points 6 seed Butler (20-13) +68 points 10 seed [B]Arizona State (20-11) +66 points play-in for 11 seed[/B] Gonzaga (30-4) +65 points 4 seed Kentucky (24-10) +65 points 5 seed Wichita State (25-7) +64 points 4 seed Baylor (18-14) +63 points South Carolina (17-16) +63 points Southern Methodist (17-16) +63 points Clemson (23-9) +59 points 5 seed Indiana (16-15) +58 points Wisconsin(15-18) +56 points Nebraska (22-10) +54 points Tennessee (25-8) +52 points 3 seed Ohio State (24-8) +50 points 5 seed [B]Syracuse (20-13) +48 points play-in for 11 seed[/B] Georgia (18-15) +47 points Georgia Tech (13-19) +47 points Iowa State (13-18) +46 points Washington (20-12) +45 points Arizona (27-7) +42 points 4 seed Utah (19-11) +41 points San Diego (18-13) +38 points Oregon (22-12) +38 points Notre Dame (20-14) +35 points Cincinnati (30-4) +32 points 2 seed DePaul (11-20) +32 points Auburn (25-7) +28 points 4 seed Georgetown(15-15) +26 points Wofford (21-12) +25 points Marshall (23-10) +24 points 13 seed Illinois (14-18) +22 points Missouri (20-12) +22 points 8 seed Boston College (19-15) +21 points St. Joseph’s (16-16) +20 points Kansas State (22-11) +19 points 9 seed Northwestern (15-17) +19 points UCLA (21-11) +19 points play-in for 11 seed Vanderbilt (12-20) +18 points Vermont (27-7) +17 points St. Mary’s (28-5) +17 points Maryland (19-13) +17 points Teams in NCAA field but not in top 68 by this (highly unofficial) measure: New Mexico State +16 points San Diego State +15 points St. Bonaventure +13 points Buffalo +10 points Rhode Island +7 points Bucknell +5 points Charleston +2 points Nevada-Reno +2 points Davidson +1 point Loyola-Chicago 0 points Georgia State 0 points Iona 0 points LIU-Brooklyn 0 points Montana 0 points Murray State 0 points North Carolina Central 0 points UNC- Greensboro 0 points Radford 0 points Stephen . Austin 0 points Wright State 0 points MD-Baltimore County -2 points South Dakota State -2 points Pennsylvania -6 points Lipscomb -28 points Cal State-Fullerton -40 points Texas Southern -64 points Comments: Obviously this metric and the decisions the NCAA committee made don’t exactly align perfectly. For one thing, they don’t use the poll rankings. They use RPI and have their “quadrant” system for evaluating the opposition. Also my system gives credit for good performances in losses. I think the committee just looks at Ws and Ls. My system, being based on the pols, can inflate some numbers if there are a lot of ranked teams in the conference. The Big 12 teams boosted each other because so many of them were ranked. But how good was the Big 12 really? We played Kansas, Virginia, Duke and UNC. If you ranked those teams where would you put Kansas? I’d put them at 4th. Yet they won the Big 12. There’s nothing that’s truly 100% objective. Could the tournament have gotten by without the 26 teams that didn’t make my Top 68? Probably. That knocks it down to 42. Take out 10 more, (including us, unfortunately) and you are down to 32. Do four 8 team regionals open week and the Final four the next week. Just another alternative to think about. [/QUOTE]
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