SWC75
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The last few years I’ve attempted to quantify team’s performances against ranked teams, (historically a big factor in decisions made about getting into playoffs) with a system that gives points to teams for the ranking of their opponents and adds or subtracts the point differential in their games, (adds in a win, subtracts in a loss). The ‘ranking’ points are 25 for playing a #1 ranked team, 24 for playing a #2 ranked team, etc, down to 1 point for playing a 25th ranked team. These points are easily computed by subtracting the ranking number from 26, (26-1 = 25; 26-25 =1, etc). Over the course of the season, I add the points earned by each team in their games against ranked teams as a sort of standings but have always maintained that this is just one thing to look at in evaluating the team, not a final overall ranking.
I didn’t do that for this year’s football season because with some conferences opting out and then opting back in later in the seasons, the rankings were a mess. But everybody is playing basketball now, or trying to, so I’ve decided to keep track of performances against ranked teams in this sport. I’ve decided to add an extra wrinkle: I will keep track of the performances of the ranked teams themselves by totaling the points earned against them, with the +/- reversed. This will measure their performance “as a ranked team” We’ll see how that goes and I’ll decide whether to continue with that.
(First alteration: When ranked teams play each other, their only points will be under the first test. Otherwise the Gonzaga-Kansas game would look like this:
Gonzaga beat #6 Kansas 102-90: Gonzaga +32 Kansas -32
Kansas lost to #1 Gonzaga 90-102: Kansas +13 Gonzaga -13
That would give Gonzaga +19 points and Kansas -19 points. They should both get credit for playing each other in a competitive game. Giving Gonzaga +32 points and Kansas +13 makes more sense.)
WEEK TEN (1/25-31)
Syracuse lost to #8 Virginia 58-81: Syracuse -5 Virginia +5
West Virginia beat #10 Texas Tech 88-87 West Virginia +17 both ranked
Texas Tech lost to #11 West Virginia 87-88: Texas Tech +14 both ranked
Oklahoma beat #5 Texas 80-79: Oklahoma +22 both ranked
Texas lost to #24 Oklahoma 79-80: Texas +1 both ranked
Kentucky lost to #9 Alabama 59-70: Kentucky +6 Alabama -6
Auburn beat #12 Missouri 88-82: Auburn +20 Missouri -20
Mississippi State lost to #18 Tennessee 53-56: Mississippi St. +5 Tennessee -5
Dayton beat #22 Saint Louis 76-71: Dayton +10 Saint Louis -10
Kansas State lost to #2 Baylor 59-107: Kansas State -24 Baylor +24
Penn State lost to #13 Ohio State 79-83: Penn State +9 Ohio State -9
Maryland lost to #14 Wisconsin 55-61: Maryland +6 Wisconsin -6
U of Miami lost to #16 Florida State 59-81: U of Miami -12 Florida State +12
Seton Hall lost to #17 Creighton 81-85: Seton Hall +5 Creighton -5
Notre Dame lost to #20 Virginia Tech 51-62: Notre Dame -5 Virginia Tech +5
Clemson beat #25 Louisville 54-50: Clemson +5 Louisville -5
San Diego lost to #1 Gonzaga 62-90: San Diego -3 Gonzaga +3
Tulane lost to #6 Houston 60-83: Tulane -3 Houston +3
Texas Christian lost to #15 Kansas 51-59: Texas Christian +3 Kansas -3
Illinois beat #7 Iowa 80-75: Illinois +24 both ranked
Iowa lost to #19 Illinois 75-80: Iowa +2 both ranked
Pepperdine lost to #1 Gonzaga 75-97: Pepperdine +3 Gonzaga -3
Auburn lost to #2 Baylor 72-84: Auburn +12 Baylor -12
Seton Hall lost to #3 Villanova 72-80: Seton Hall +15 Villanova -15
Virginia Tech beat #8 Virginia 65-51: Virginia Tech +32 both ranked
Virginia lost to #23 Virginia Tech 51-65: Virginia -11 both ranked
Oklahoma beat #9 Alabama 66-61: Oklahoma +22 both ranked
Alabama lost to #24 Oklahoma 61-66: Alabama -3 both ranked
Louisiana State lost to #10 Texas Tech 71-76: Louisiana State +11 Texas Tech -11
Florida beat #11 West Virginia 85-80: Florida +20 West Virginia -20
Texas Christian lost to #12 Missouri 98-102: Texas Christian +10 Missouri -10
Penn State beat #14 Wisconsin 81-71: Penn State +22 Wisconsin -22
Tennessee beat #15 Kansas 80-61: Tennessee +30 both ranked
Kansas lost to #18 Tennessee 61-80: Kansas -11 both ranked
Georgia Tech beat #16 Florida State 76-65: Georgia Tech +21 Florida State -21
DePaul lost to #17 Creighton 62-69: DePaul +2 Creighton -2
Purdue beat #21 Minnesota 81-62: Purdue +24 Minnesota -24
Oregon State lost to #23 UCLA 52-57 Oregon State -2 UCLA +2
Southern Methodist lost to #6 Houston 48-70: So Methodist -2 Houston +2
Michigan State lost to #13 Ohio State 62-79: Michigan State -4 Ohio State +4
Comments: Playing against ranked teams, schools were 13-27 outright and 32-12 in terms of points by this method in week 10. It’s testimony to how ‘flat’ the competition is this year in college basketball. There’s lots of winnable games but lost of teams that can win them.
After recording these scores, I’m not sure how I feel about the new stat. it gives too much credit for blow-out wins over over-matched opponents. But everyone plays games like that and maybe teams that don’t blow-out over-matched opponents should be debited for that by not getting as much credit. I’m also worried that the points accumulated against unranked teams might be more prolific than the points against ranked teams because that would be more games. What I’ll do is to keep track of them separately and also add them together. That way, if I decide I don’t like the new stat, I can just report the points “against ranked teams”.
TOP TEN AGAINST RANKED TEAMS
Oklahoma +123
Gonzaga +109
Minnesota +103
Iowa +100
Texas +96
West Virginia +89
Michigan +86
Kansas +85
Virginia Tech +85
Wisconsin +79
TOP TEN AS A RANKED TEAM AGAINST UNRANKED TEAMS
Texas Tech +126
Ohio State +92
Illinois +79
Baylor +46
Houston +33
Gonzaga +32
Rutgers +32
Virginia +32
Iowa +31
North Carolina +28
TOP TEN COMBINED
Texas Tech +198
Illinois +157
Ohio State +151
Gonzaga +141
Iowa +131
Oklahoma +123
Texas +121
Baylor +114
Michigan +107
Virginia +79
Syracuse has played two teams that were ranked when we played them, Rutgers, who was ranked #21 when we played them. We lost to them by 10 points. Now we’ve beaten #16 Virginia Tech by 18 points and lost to #8 Virginia by 23 points so, under this system, we’ve got +18 points. Our remaining scheduled opponents have the following combined total points:
Louisville -33
Clemson -73
North Carolina State +7
Boston College +10
Louisville -33
Notre Dame -26
Duke +19
Georgia Tech +77
North Carolina +45
To the extent that these numbers mean anything, we could be looking at a 6-3 finish, (six wins, then three losses) which would put us at 16-8, (10-7). Hopefully, that will be enough to get us into the Big Dance. It would obviously be enough to extend the streak of winning seasons to 51, three short of UCLA’s record.
I didn’t do that for this year’s football season because with some conferences opting out and then opting back in later in the seasons, the rankings were a mess. But everybody is playing basketball now, or trying to, so I’ve decided to keep track of performances against ranked teams in this sport. I’ve decided to add an extra wrinkle: I will keep track of the performances of the ranked teams themselves by totaling the points earned against them, with the +/- reversed. This will measure their performance “as a ranked team” We’ll see how that goes and I’ll decide whether to continue with that.
(First alteration: When ranked teams play each other, their only points will be under the first test. Otherwise the Gonzaga-Kansas game would look like this:
Gonzaga beat #6 Kansas 102-90: Gonzaga +32 Kansas -32
Kansas lost to #1 Gonzaga 90-102: Kansas +13 Gonzaga -13
That would give Gonzaga +19 points and Kansas -19 points. They should both get credit for playing each other in a competitive game. Giving Gonzaga +32 points and Kansas +13 makes more sense.)
WEEK TEN (1/25-31)
Syracuse lost to #8 Virginia 58-81: Syracuse -5 Virginia +5
West Virginia beat #10 Texas Tech 88-87 West Virginia +17 both ranked
Texas Tech lost to #11 West Virginia 87-88: Texas Tech +14 both ranked
Oklahoma beat #5 Texas 80-79: Oklahoma +22 both ranked
Texas lost to #24 Oklahoma 79-80: Texas +1 both ranked
Kentucky lost to #9 Alabama 59-70: Kentucky +6 Alabama -6
Auburn beat #12 Missouri 88-82: Auburn +20 Missouri -20
Mississippi State lost to #18 Tennessee 53-56: Mississippi St. +5 Tennessee -5
Dayton beat #22 Saint Louis 76-71: Dayton +10 Saint Louis -10
Kansas State lost to #2 Baylor 59-107: Kansas State -24 Baylor +24
Penn State lost to #13 Ohio State 79-83: Penn State +9 Ohio State -9
Maryland lost to #14 Wisconsin 55-61: Maryland +6 Wisconsin -6
U of Miami lost to #16 Florida State 59-81: U of Miami -12 Florida State +12
Seton Hall lost to #17 Creighton 81-85: Seton Hall +5 Creighton -5
Notre Dame lost to #20 Virginia Tech 51-62: Notre Dame -5 Virginia Tech +5
Clemson beat #25 Louisville 54-50: Clemson +5 Louisville -5
San Diego lost to #1 Gonzaga 62-90: San Diego -3 Gonzaga +3
Tulane lost to #6 Houston 60-83: Tulane -3 Houston +3
Texas Christian lost to #15 Kansas 51-59: Texas Christian +3 Kansas -3
Illinois beat #7 Iowa 80-75: Illinois +24 both ranked
Iowa lost to #19 Illinois 75-80: Iowa +2 both ranked
Pepperdine lost to #1 Gonzaga 75-97: Pepperdine +3 Gonzaga -3
Auburn lost to #2 Baylor 72-84: Auburn +12 Baylor -12
Seton Hall lost to #3 Villanova 72-80: Seton Hall +15 Villanova -15
Virginia Tech beat #8 Virginia 65-51: Virginia Tech +32 both ranked
Virginia lost to #23 Virginia Tech 51-65: Virginia -11 both ranked
Oklahoma beat #9 Alabama 66-61: Oklahoma +22 both ranked
Alabama lost to #24 Oklahoma 61-66: Alabama -3 both ranked
Louisiana State lost to #10 Texas Tech 71-76: Louisiana State +11 Texas Tech -11
Florida beat #11 West Virginia 85-80: Florida +20 West Virginia -20
Texas Christian lost to #12 Missouri 98-102: Texas Christian +10 Missouri -10
Penn State beat #14 Wisconsin 81-71: Penn State +22 Wisconsin -22
Tennessee beat #15 Kansas 80-61: Tennessee +30 both ranked
Kansas lost to #18 Tennessee 61-80: Kansas -11 both ranked
Georgia Tech beat #16 Florida State 76-65: Georgia Tech +21 Florida State -21
DePaul lost to #17 Creighton 62-69: DePaul +2 Creighton -2
Purdue beat #21 Minnesota 81-62: Purdue +24 Minnesota -24
Oregon State lost to #23 UCLA 52-57 Oregon State -2 UCLA +2
Southern Methodist lost to #6 Houston 48-70: So Methodist -2 Houston +2
Michigan State lost to #13 Ohio State 62-79: Michigan State -4 Ohio State +4
Comments: Playing against ranked teams, schools were 13-27 outright and 32-12 in terms of points by this method in week 10. It’s testimony to how ‘flat’ the competition is this year in college basketball. There’s lots of winnable games but lost of teams that can win them.
After recording these scores, I’m not sure how I feel about the new stat. it gives too much credit for blow-out wins over over-matched opponents. But everyone plays games like that and maybe teams that don’t blow-out over-matched opponents should be debited for that by not getting as much credit. I’m also worried that the points accumulated against unranked teams might be more prolific than the points against ranked teams because that would be more games. What I’ll do is to keep track of them separately and also add them together. That way, if I decide I don’t like the new stat, I can just report the points “against ranked teams”.
TOP TEN AGAINST RANKED TEAMS
Oklahoma +123
Gonzaga +109
Minnesota +103
Iowa +100
Texas +96
West Virginia +89
Michigan +86
Kansas +85
Virginia Tech +85
Wisconsin +79
TOP TEN AS A RANKED TEAM AGAINST UNRANKED TEAMS
Texas Tech +126
Ohio State +92
Illinois +79
Baylor +46
Houston +33
Gonzaga +32
Rutgers +32
Virginia +32
Iowa +31
North Carolina +28
TOP TEN COMBINED
Texas Tech +198
Illinois +157
Ohio State +151
Gonzaga +141
Iowa +131
Oklahoma +123
Texas +121
Baylor +114
Michigan +107
Virginia +79
Syracuse has played two teams that were ranked when we played them, Rutgers, who was ranked #21 when we played them. We lost to them by 10 points. Now we’ve beaten #16 Virginia Tech by 18 points and lost to #8 Virginia by 23 points so, under this system, we’ve got +18 points. Our remaining scheduled opponents have the following combined total points:
Louisville -33
Clemson -73
North Carolina State +7
Boston College +10
Louisville -33
Notre Dame -26
Duke +19
Georgia Tech +77
North Carolina +45
To the extent that these numbers mean anything, we could be looking at a 6-3 finish, (six wins, then three losses) which would put us at 16-8, (10-7). Hopefully, that will be enough to get us into the Big Dance. It would obviously be enough to extend the streak of winning seasons to 51, three short of UCLA’s record.
