SWC75
Bored Historian
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
- Messages
- 32,484
- Like
- 62,663
The last few years I’ve attempted to quantify team’s performances against ranked teams, (historically a big factor in decisions made about getting into playoffs) with a system that gives points to teams for the ranking of their opponents and adds or subtracts the point differential in their games, (adds in a win, subtracts in a loss). The ‘ranking’ points are 25 for playing a #1 ranked team, 24 for playing a #2 ranked team, etc, down to 1 point for playing a 25th ranked team. These points are easily computed by subtracting the ranking number from 26, (26-1 = 25; 26-25 =1, etc). Over the course of the season, I add the points earned by each team in their games against ranked teams as a sort of standings but have always maintained that this is just one thing to look at in evaluating the team, not a final overall ranking.
I didn’t do that for this year’s football season because with some conferences opting out and then opting back in later in the seasons, the rankings were a mess. But everybody is playing basketball now, or trying to, so I’ve decided to keep track of performances against ranked teams in this sport. I’ve decided to add an extra wrinkle: I will keep track of the performances of the ranked teams themselves by totaling the points earned against them, with the +/- reversed. This will measure their performance “as a ranked team” We’ll see how that goes and I’ll decide whether to continue with that.
(First alteration: When ranked teams play each other, their only points will be under the first test. Otherwise the Gonzaga-Kansas game would look like this:
Gonzaga beat #6 Kansas 102-90: Gonzaga +32 Kansas -32
Kansas lost to #1 Gonzaga 90-102: Kansas +13 Gonzaga -13
That would give Gonzaga +19 points and Kansas -19 points. They should both get credit for playing each other in a competitive game. Giving Gonzaga +32 points and Kansas +13 makes more sense.)
WEEK TWELVE (2/8-14)
Brigham Young lost to #1 Gonzaga 71-82: Brigham Young +14 Gonzaga -14
Maryland lost to #4 Ohio State 65-73: Maryland +14 Ohio State -14
Kansas beat #23 Oklahoma State 78-66: Kansas +15 Oklahoma State -15
West Virginia beat #7 Texas Tech 82-71: West Virginia +30 both ranked
Texas Tech lost to #14 West Virginia 71-82: Texas Tech +1 both ranked
South Carolina lost to #11 Alabama 78-81: South Carolina +12 Alabama -12
Kansas State lost to #13 Texas 77-80: Kansas State +10 Texas -10
Georgetown lost to #19 Creighton 48-63: Georgetown -8 Creighton +8
Marquette lost to #5 Villanova 64-96: Marquette -11 Villanova +11
South Florida lost to #8 Houston 65-82: South Florida +1 Houston -1
Georgia Tech lost to #9 Virginia 49-57: Georgia Tech +9 Virginia -9
Mississippi beat #10 Missouri 80-59: Mississippi +37 Missouri -37
Iowa beat #25 Rutgers 79-66: Iowa +14 both ranked
Rutgers lost to #15 Iowa 66-79: Rutgers -2 both ranked
Georgia lost to #16 Tennessee 81-89: Georgia +2 Tennessee -2
Nebraska lost to #21 Wisconsin 48-61: Nebraska -8 Wisconsin +8
Washington lost to #20 So California 54-69: Washington -9 So California +9
Minnesota beat #24 Purdue 71-68: Minnesota +5 Purdue -5
Nebraska lost to #6 Illinois 72-77: Nebraska +15 Illinois -15
San Francisco lost to #1 Gonzaga 61-100: San Francisco -14 Gonzaga +14
Indiana lost to #4 Ohio State 59-78: Indiana +3 Ohio State -3
Creighton beat #5 Villanova 86-70: Creighton +36 both ranked
Villanova lost to #19 Creighton 70-86: Villanova -9 both ranked
North Carolina lost to #9 Virginia 48-60: North Carolina +5 Virginia -5
Arkansas beat #10 Missouri 86-81: Arkansas +21 Missouri -21
Georgia lost to #11 Alabama 82-115: Georgia -18 Alabama +18
Oklahoma beat #14 West Virginia 91-90: Oklahoma +13 both ranked
West Virginia lost to #12 Oklahoma 90-91: West Virginia +13 both ranked
Texas Christian lost to #13 Texas 55-70: Texas Christian -2 Texas +2
Michigan State lost to #15 Iowa 58-88: Michigan State -19 Iowa +19
Louisiana State beat #16 Tennessee 78-65: Louisiana State +23 Tennessee -23
Wake Forest lost to #17 Florida State 85-92: Wake Forest +2 Florida State -2
Washington St lost to #20 So California 65-76: Washington St -5 So California +5
Drake lost to #22 Loyola (Chicago) 54-81: Drake -23 Loyola (Chicago) +23
Kansas State lost to #23 Oklahoma State 60-67: Kansas State -4 Oklahoma State +4
Northwestern lost to #25 Rutgers 50-64: Northwestern -13 Rutgers +13
Michigan beat #21 Wisconsin 67-59: Michigan +13 both ranked
Wisconsin lost to #3 Michigan 59-67: Wisconsin +15 both ranked
Drake beat #22 Loyola (Chicago) 51-50: Drake +5 Loyola (Chicago) -5
After recording these scores, I’m not sure how I feel about the new stat. it gives too much credit for blow-out wins over over-matched opponents. But everyone plays games like that and maybe teams that don’t blow-out over-matched opponents should be debited for that by not getting as much credit. I’m also worried that the points accumulated against unranked teams might be more prolific than the points against ranked teams because that would be more games. What I’ll do is to keep track of them separately and also add them together. That way, if I decide I don’t like the new stat, I can just report the points “against ranked teams”.
TOP TEN AGAINST RANKED TEAMS
Iowa +148
West Virginia +147
Kansas +117
Gonzaga +109
Minnesota +108
Oklahoma +108
Texas +106
Illinois +100
Michigan +99
Oklahoma State +96
TOP TEN AS A RANKED TEAM AGAINST UNRANKED TEAMS
Texas Tech +124
Ohio State +103
Illinois +54
Houston +47
Baylor +46
Rutgers +45
Gonzaga +25
Alabama +21
Michigan +21
Drake +18
Loyola (Chicago) +18
TOP TEN COMBINED
Texas Tech +219
Ohio State +184
Illinois +154
Baylor +148
Iowa +147
Gonzaga +134
Texas +123
Michigan +120
Oklahoma +108
Kansas +85
Syracuse has played two teams that were ranked when we played them, Rutgers, who was ranked #21 when we played them. We lost to them by 10 points. Now we’ve beaten #16 Virginia Tech by 18 points and lost to #8 Virginia by 23 points so, under this system, we’ve got +18 points. Our remaining scheduled opponents have the following combined total points:
Louisville -33
Notre Dame -26
Duke +19
Georgia Tech +86
North Carolina +38
To the extent that these numbers mean anything, we could be looking at a 2-3 finish, which would put us at 14-9, (8-8). Would that get us into the Big Dance? I don’t know. It would be enough to extend the streak of winning seasons to 51, three short of UCLA’s record.
I didn’t do that for this year’s football season because with some conferences opting out and then opting back in later in the seasons, the rankings were a mess. But everybody is playing basketball now, or trying to, so I’ve decided to keep track of performances against ranked teams in this sport. I’ve decided to add an extra wrinkle: I will keep track of the performances of the ranked teams themselves by totaling the points earned against them, with the +/- reversed. This will measure their performance “as a ranked team” We’ll see how that goes and I’ll decide whether to continue with that.
(First alteration: When ranked teams play each other, their only points will be under the first test. Otherwise the Gonzaga-Kansas game would look like this:
Gonzaga beat #6 Kansas 102-90: Gonzaga +32 Kansas -32
Kansas lost to #1 Gonzaga 90-102: Kansas +13 Gonzaga -13
That would give Gonzaga +19 points and Kansas -19 points. They should both get credit for playing each other in a competitive game. Giving Gonzaga +32 points and Kansas +13 makes more sense.)
WEEK TWELVE (2/8-14)
Brigham Young lost to #1 Gonzaga 71-82: Brigham Young +14 Gonzaga -14
Maryland lost to #4 Ohio State 65-73: Maryland +14 Ohio State -14
Kansas beat #23 Oklahoma State 78-66: Kansas +15 Oklahoma State -15
West Virginia beat #7 Texas Tech 82-71: West Virginia +30 both ranked
Texas Tech lost to #14 West Virginia 71-82: Texas Tech +1 both ranked
South Carolina lost to #11 Alabama 78-81: South Carolina +12 Alabama -12
Kansas State lost to #13 Texas 77-80: Kansas State +10 Texas -10
Georgetown lost to #19 Creighton 48-63: Georgetown -8 Creighton +8
Marquette lost to #5 Villanova 64-96: Marquette -11 Villanova +11
South Florida lost to #8 Houston 65-82: South Florida +1 Houston -1
Georgia Tech lost to #9 Virginia 49-57: Georgia Tech +9 Virginia -9
Mississippi beat #10 Missouri 80-59: Mississippi +37 Missouri -37
Iowa beat #25 Rutgers 79-66: Iowa +14 both ranked
Rutgers lost to #15 Iowa 66-79: Rutgers -2 both ranked
Georgia lost to #16 Tennessee 81-89: Georgia +2 Tennessee -2
Nebraska lost to #21 Wisconsin 48-61: Nebraska -8 Wisconsin +8
Washington lost to #20 So California 54-69: Washington -9 So California +9
Minnesota beat #24 Purdue 71-68: Minnesota +5 Purdue -5
Nebraska lost to #6 Illinois 72-77: Nebraska +15 Illinois -15
San Francisco lost to #1 Gonzaga 61-100: San Francisco -14 Gonzaga +14
Indiana lost to #4 Ohio State 59-78: Indiana +3 Ohio State -3
Creighton beat #5 Villanova 86-70: Creighton +36 both ranked
Villanova lost to #19 Creighton 70-86: Villanova -9 both ranked
North Carolina lost to #9 Virginia 48-60: North Carolina +5 Virginia -5
Arkansas beat #10 Missouri 86-81: Arkansas +21 Missouri -21
Georgia lost to #11 Alabama 82-115: Georgia -18 Alabama +18
Oklahoma beat #14 West Virginia 91-90: Oklahoma +13 both ranked
West Virginia lost to #12 Oklahoma 90-91: West Virginia +13 both ranked
Texas Christian lost to #13 Texas 55-70: Texas Christian -2 Texas +2
Michigan State lost to #15 Iowa 58-88: Michigan State -19 Iowa +19
Louisiana State beat #16 Tennessee 78-65: Louisiana State +23 Tennessee -23
Wake Forest lost to #17 Florida State 85-92: Wake Forest +2 Florida State -2
Washington St lost to #20 So California 65-76: Washington St -5 So California +5
Drake lost to #22 Loyola (Chicago) 54-81: Drake -23 Loyola (Chicago) +23
Kansas State lost to #23 Oklahoma State 60-67: Kansas State -4 Oklahoma State +4
Northwestern lost to #25 Rutgers 50-64: Northwestern -13 Rutgers +13
Michigan beat #21 Wisconsin 67-59: Michigan +13 both ranked
Wisconsin lost to #3 Michigan 59-67: Wisconsin +15 both ranked
Drake beat #22 Loyola (Chicago) 51-50: Drake +5 Loyola (Chicago) -5
After recording these scores, I’m not sure how I feel about the new stat. it gives too much credit for blow-out wins over over-matched opponents. But everyone plays games like that and maybe teams that don’t blow-out over-matched opponents should be debited for that by not getting as much credit. I’m also worried that the points accumulated against unranked teams might be more prolific than the points against ranked teams because that would be more games. What I’ll do is to keep track of them separately and also add them together. That way, if I decide I don’t like the new stat, I can just report the points “against ranked teams”.
TOP TEN AGAINST RANKED TEAMS
Iowa +148
West Virginia +147
Kansas +117
Gonzaga +109
Minnesota +108
Oklahoma +108
Texas +106
Illinois +100
Michigan +99
Oklahoma State +96
TOP TEN AS A RANKED TEAM AGAINST UNRANKED TEAMS
Texas Tech +124
Ohio State +103
Illinois +54
Houston +47
Baylor +46
Rutgers +45
Gonzaga +25
Alabama +21
Michigan +21
Drake +18
Loyola (Chicago) +18
TOP TEN COMBINED
Texas Tech +219
Ohio State +184
Illinois +154
Baylor +148
Iowa +147
Gonzaga +134
Texas +123
Michigan +120
Oklahoma +108
Kansas +85
Syracuse has played two teams that were ranked when we played them, Rutgers, who was ranked #21 when we played them. We lost to them by 10 points. Now we’ve beaten #16 Virginia Tech by 18 points and lost to #8 Virginia by 23 points so, under this system, we’ve got +18 points. Our remaining scheduled opponents have the following combined total points:
Louisville -33
Notre Dame -26
Duke +19
Georgia Tech +86
North Carolina +38
To the extent that these numbers mean anything, we could be looking at a 2-3 finish, which would put us at 14-9, (8-8). Would that get us into the Big Dance? I don’t know. It would be enough to extend the streak of winning seasons to 51, three short of UCLA’s record.
