SWC75
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We often hear teams being evaluated at the end of the season by how they did “against ranked teams”. A couple of years ago I came up with a simple system for evaluating this, one with an acknowledged flaw but which nonetheless produced interesting results so I’ll do it again this year.
The system is very simple. First I hand out points to teams based on the ranking of their opponent. If you play the #1 ranked team, you get 25 points for playing such a powerful team. You get 24 points for playing the #2 team, 23 for playing the #3 team, etc. I’ll call them schedule points. Here’s a chart to make it easy:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
That’s step one. Now we play the games and see how these teams actually do on the field. What cued me into this is that most games will be won or lost by 25 points or less, so the points involved are comparable. You just compare the point differential to the points teams have gotten for playing a ranked opponent. If they beat the ranked opponent, their points will grow by the margin of victory. If they lose, you subtract the margin of victory from the schedule points. If that reduces them to zero or less, they get zero points. I’m not going to deal with minus points, just add up the positive points earned, or else my rankings would be cluttered up with a lot of inferior teams who were below the Mendoza line because they’d gotten blown out by their ranked opponents. If you play the #1 team and lose by 21 points, you’ll get 4 points: 25 schedule points minus the 21 points you lost by. If you play the #10 team and lose by 13 points, you’ll get three points. If you play the #15 team and lose by 14 points, you’ll get nothing, (11-14 = 0 in this system).
I’ll record the points earned each week and how the teams got them and add them up over the course of the season. That will show us how each team did “against ranked teams”. Like all cumulative standings, they will sort themselves out as the season goes on and come more and more into focus. Later listings will be more meaningful than early ones as more and more teams get through the meat of their schedules. The cumulative listing should I think be less a ranking of teams than a statistic you look at in determining where to rank the teams.
WEEK TWELVE (11/17-21)
Mississippi beat #15 Louisiana State 38-17 11 + 21 = 36 points
Baylor beat #6 Oklahoma State 45-35 20 + 10 = 30 points
Michigan State beat #3 Ohio State 17-14 23 + 3 = 26 points
Temple beat #21 Memphis 31-12 5 + 19 = 24 points
Oregon beat #24 Southern California 48-28 2 + 20 = 22 points
UCLA beat #13 Utah 17-9 13 + 8 = 21 points
Boston College lost to #4 Notre Dame 16-19 22 – 3 = 19 points
Texas Christian lost to #7 Oklahoma 29-30 19 -1 = 18 points
Ohio State lost to #9 Michigan State 14-17 17 - 3 = 14 points
Florida Atlantic lost to #8 Florida 14-20 18 – 6 = 12 points
Connecticut beat #19 Houston 20-17 7 + 3 = 10 points
Oklahoma beat #18 Texas Christian 30-29 8 + 1 = 9 points
Northwestern beat #25 Wisconsin 13-7 1 + 6 = 7 points
Oklahoma State lost to #10 Baylor 35-45 16 – 10 = 6 points
Virginia Tech lost to #17 North Carolina 27-30 9 – 3 = 6 points
Wake Forest lost by to #1 Clemson 13-33 25 - 20 = 5 points
California lost to #11 Stanford 22-35 15 – 13 = 2 points
Penn State lost to #12 Michigan 16-28 14- 12 = 2 points
Purdue lost to #21 Iowa 20-40 21 - 20 = 1 point
A new high for teams earning points with 19. But nobody's catching Alabama, who may get up to the 200 point level after the SEC title game. Michigan, Mississippi and UCLA have impressive resumes except they've all lost at least two games. Here comes Oklahoma who will likely pass at least the Bruins after the bedlam game and with a really impressive performance, could move into second. It will probably depend on Baker Mayfield's health. Michgian State can earn more points if they beat Penn State and get into the Big Ten title game. And Iowa could make a move by beating them.
SEASON TOTALS
Alabama 182 points
Michigan 101 points
Mississippi 97 points
UCLA 87 points
Oklahoma 72 points
Louisiana State 68 points
Michigan State 66 points
Florida 64 points
Oregon 61 points
Utah 61 points
Stanford 59 points
Arkansas 53 points
Minnesota 50 points
Texas A&M 50 points
Iowa 47 points
Oklahoma State 44 points
Southern California 43 points
Clemson 42 points
Notre Dame 41 points
Navy 38 points
Temple 37 points
Arizona State 34 points
Baylor 34 points
Georgia Tech 34 points
Brigham Young 32 points
Indiana 32 points
Utah State 31 points
Arizona 29 points
Washington 28 points
Tennessee 27 points
Boston College 26 points
Memphis 26 points
Vanderbilt 26 points
Louisville 25 points
Northern Illinois 25 points
South Florida 25 points
Auburn 23 points
Purdue 23 points
Syracuse 23 points
Texas 23 points
Northwestern 22 points
Duke 20 points
Kansas State 20 points
Nebraska 20 points
Texas Tech 20 points
Texas Christian 18 points
California 17 points
U of Miami 16 points
Florida State 15 points
Rutgers 15 points
Iowa State 14 points
Ohio State 14 points
Virginia Tech 14 points
Wake Forest 14 points
Jacksonville State 13 points
Kansas State 13 points
Florida Atlantic 12 points
Toledo 12 points
Connecticut 11 point
Mississippi State 10 points
North Carolina 10 points
Virginia 10 points
Kentucky 9 points
Pittsburgh 9 points
North Carolina State 8 points
Western Michigan 8 points
Air Force 7 points
Iowa State 6 points
Wisconsin 6 points
Houston 5 points
Kansas 5 points
Maryland 5 points
South Carolina 5 points
Ball State 4 points
Central Michigan 4 points
Penn State 4 points
Southern Methodist 4 points
Memphis 1 point
The system is very simple. First I hand out points to teams based on the ranking of their opponent. If you play the #1 ranked team, you get 25 points for playing such a powerful team. You get 24 points for playing the #2 team, 23 for playing the #3 team, etc. I’ll call them schedule points. Here’s a chart to make it easy:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
That’s step one. Now we play the games and see how these teams actually do on the field. What cued me into this is that most games will be won or lost by 25 points or less, so the points involved are comparable. You just compare the point differential to the points teams have gotten for playing a ranked opponent. If they beat the ranked opponent, their points will grow by the margin of victory. If they lose, you subtract the margin of victory from the schedule points. If that reduces them to zero or less, they get zero points. I’m not going to deal with minus points, just add up the positive points earned, or else my rankings would be cluttered up with a lot of inferior teams who were below the Mendoza line because they’d gotten blown out by their ranked opponents. If you play the #1 team and lose by 21 points, you’ll get 4 points: 25 schedule points minus the 21 points you lost by. If you play the #10 team and lose by 13 points, you’ll get three points. If you play the #15 team and lose by 14 points, you’ll get nothing, (11-14 = 0 in this system).
I’ll record the points earned each week and how the teams got them and add them up over the course of the season. That will show us how each team did “against ranked teams”. Like all cumulative standings, they will sort themselves out as the season goes on and come more and more into focus. Later listings will be more meaningful than early ones as more and more teams get through the meat of their schedules. The cumulative listing should I think be less a ranking of teams than a statistic you look at in determining where to rank the teams.
WEEK TWELVE (11/17-21)
Mississippi beat #15 Louisiana State 38-17 11 + 21 = 36 points
Baylor beat #6 Oklahoma State 45-35 20 + 10 = 30 points
Michigan State beat #3 Ohio State 17-14 23 + 3 = 26 points
Temple beat #21 Memphis 31-12 5 + 19 = 24 points
Oregon beat #24 Southern California 48-28 2 + 20 = 22 points
UCLA beat #13 Utah 17-9 13 + 8 = 21 points
Boston College lost to #4 Notre Dame 16-19 22 – 3 = 19 points
Texas Christian lost to #7 Oklahoma 29-30 19 -1 = 18 points
Ohio State lost to #9 Michigan State 14-17 17 - 3 = 14 points
Florida Atlantic lost to #8 Florida 14-20 18 – 6 = 12 points
Connecticut beat #19 Houston 20-17 7 + 3 = 10 points
Oklahoma beat #18 Texas Christian 30-29 8 + 1 = 9 points
Northwestern beat #25 Wisconsin 13-7 1 + 6 = 7 points
Oklahoma State lost to #10 Baylor 35-45 16 – 10 = 6 points
Virginia Tech lost to #17 North Carolina 27-30 9 – 3 = 6 points
Wake Forest lost by to #1 Clemson 13-33 25 - 20 = 5 points
California lost to #11 Stanford 22-35 15 – 13 = 2 points
Penn State lost to #12 Michigan 16-28 14- 12 = 2 points
Purdue lost to #21 Iowa 20-40 21 - 20 = 1 point
A new high for teams earning points with 19. But nobody's catching Alabama, who may get up to the 200 point level after the SEC title game. Michigan, Mississippi and UCLA have impressive resumes except they've all lost at least two games. Here comes Oklahoma who will likely pass at least the Bruins after the bedlam game and with a really impressive performance, could move into second. It will probably depend on Baker Mayfield's health. Michgian State can earn more points if they beat Penn State and get into the Big Ten title game. And Iowa could make a move by beating them.
SEASON TOTALS
Alabama 182 points
Michigan 101 points
Mississippi 97 points
UCLA 87 points
Oklahoma 72 points
Louisiana State 68 points
Michigan State 66 points
Florida 64 points
Oregon 61 points
Utah 61 points
Stanford 59 points
Arkansas 53 points
Minnesota 50 points
Texas A&M 50 points
Iowa 47 points
Oklahoma State 44 points
Southern California 43 points
Clemson 42 points
Notre Dame 41 points
Navy 38 points
Temple 37 points
Arizona State 34 points
Baylor 34 points
Georgia Tech 34 points
Brigham Young 32 points
Indiana 32 points
Utah State 31 points
Arizona 29 points
Washington 28 points
Tennessee 27 points
Boston College 26 points
Memphis 26 points
Vanderbilt 26 points
Louisville 25 points
Northern Illinois 25 points
South Florida 25 points
Auburn 23 points
Purdue 23 points
Syracuse 23 points
Texas 23 points
Northwestern 22 points
Duke 20 points
Kansas State 20 points
Nebraska 20 points
Texas Tech 20 points
Texas Christian 18 points
California 17 points
U of Miami 16 points
Florida State 15 points
Rutgers 15 points
Iowa State 14 points
Ohio State 14 points
Virginia Tech 14 points
Wake Forest 14 points
Jacksonville State 13 points
Kansas State 13 points
Florida Atlantic 12 points
Toledo 12 points
Connecticut 11 point
Mississippi State 10 points
North Carolina 10 points
Virginia 10 points
Kentucky 9 points
Pittsburgh 9 points
North Carolina State 8 points
Western Michigan 8 points
Air Force 7 points
Iowa State 6 points
Wisconsin 6 points
Houston 5 points
Kansas 5 points
Maryland 5 points
South Carolina 5 points
Ball State 4 points
Central Michigan 4 points
Penn State 4 points
Southern Methodist 4 points
Memphis 1 point
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