SWC75
Bored Historian
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The last few years I’ve attempted to quantify team’s performances against ranked teams, (historically a big factor in decisions made about getting into playoffs) with a system that gives points to teams for the ranking of their opponents and adds or subtracts the point differential in their games, (adds in a win, subtracts in a loss). The ‘ranking’ points are 25 for playing a #1 ranked team, 24 for playing a #2 ranked team, etc, down to 1 point for playing a 25th ranked team. These points are easily computed by subtracting the ranking number from 26, (26-1 = 25; 26-25 =1, etc). Over the course of the season, I add the points earned by each team in their games against ranked teams as a sort of standings but have always maintained that this is just one thing to look at in evaluating the team, not a final overall ranking.
I didn’t do that for this year’s football season because with some conferences opting out and then opting back in later in the seasons, the rankings were a mess. But everybody is playing basketball now, or trying to, so I’ve decided to keep track of performances against ranked teams in this sport. I’ve decided to add an extra wrinkle: I will keep track of the performances of the ranked teams themselves by totaling the points earned against them, with the +/- reversed. This will measure their performance “as a ranked team” We’ll see how that goes and I’ll decide whether to continue with that.
(First alteration: When ranked teams play each other, their only points will be under the first test. Otherwise the Gonzaga-Kansas game would look like this:
Gonzaga beat #6 Kansas 102-90: Gonzaga +32 Kansas -32
Kansas lost to #1 Gonzaga 90-102: Kansas +13 Gonzaga -13
That would give Gonzaga +19 points and Kansas -19 points. They should both get credit for playing each other in a competitive game. Giving Gonzaga +32 points and Kansas +13 makes more sense.)
WEEK THIRTEEN (2/15-21)
Florida State beat #7 Virginia 81-60: Florida State +40 both ranked
Virginia lost to #16 Florida State 60-81: Virginia -11 both ranked
Northwestern lost to #5 Illinois 66-73: Northwestern +14 Illinois -14
Georgia beat #20 Missouri 80-70: Georgia +16 Missouri -16
Florida lost to #24 Arkansas 64-75: Florida -9 Arkansas +9
Northwestern lost to #5 Illinois 66-73: Northwestern +14 Illinois -14
Georgia beat #20 Missouri 80-70: Georgia +16 Missouri -16
Florida lost to #24 Arkansas 64-75: Florida -9 Arkansas +9
Arizona State lost to #17 So California 71-89: Arizona State -9 So California +9
South Carolina lost to #19 Tennessee 73-93: South Carolina -13 Tennessee +13
Valparaiso lost to #22 Loyola (Chicago) 52-54: Valparaiso +2 Loyola (Chicago) -2
Kansas State lost to #23 Kansas 41-59: Kansas State -15 Kansas +15
St. Mary’s lost to #1 Gonzaga 65-87: St. Mary’s +3 Gonzaga -3
Rutgers lost to #3 Michigan 64-71: Rutgers +16 Michigan -16
Penn State lost to #4 Ohio State 82-92: Penn State +12 Ohio State -12
Wichita State beat #6 Houston 68-63: Wichita State +25 Houston -25
Iowa beat #21 Wisconsin 77-62: Iowa +20 both ranked
Wisconsin lost to #11 Iowa 62-77: Wisconsin 0 both ranked
Fresno State lost to #25 San Diego State 53-67: Fresno State -13 San Diego State +13
San Diego lost to #1 Gonzaga 69-106: San Diego -12 Gonzaga +12
Minnesota lost to #5 Illinois 63-94: Minnesota -10 Illinois +10
Duke beat #7 Virginia 66-65: Duke +20 Virginia -20
Vanderbilt lost to #8 Alabama 78-82: Vanderbilt +14 Alabama -14
Iowa State lost to #9 Oklahoma 56-68: Iowa State +5 Oklahoma -5
Connecticut lost to #10 Villanova 60-68: Connecticut +8 Villanova -8
West Virginia beat #12 Texas 84-82: West Virginia +16 both ranked
Texas lost to #13 West Virginia 82-84: Texas +11 both ranked
Kansas beat #15 Texas Tech 67-61: Kansas +17 both ranked
Texas Tech lost to #23 Kansas 61-67: Texas Tech -3 both ranked
Pittsburgh lost to #16 Florida State 72-79: Pittsburgh +3 Florida State -3
Arizona beat #17 Southern California 81-72: Arizona +18 So California -18
Kentucky beat #19 Tennessee 70-55: Kentucky +22 Tennessee -22
South Carolina lost to #20 Missouri 78-93: South Carolina -9 Missouri +9
Fresno State lost to #25 San Diego State 57-75: Fresno State -17 San Diego State +17
Michigan beat #4 Ohio State 92-87: Michigan +27 both ranked
Ohio State lost to #3 Michigan 87-92: Ohio State +18 both ranked
Cincinnati lost to #6 Houston 52-90: Cincinnati -18 Houston +18
Penn State lost to #11 Iowa 68-74: Penn State +9 Iowa -9
Northwestern lost to #21 Wisconsin 51-68: Northwestern -12 Wisconsin +12
After recording these scores, I’m not sure how I feel about the new stat. it gives too much credit for blow-out wins over over-matched opponents. But everyone plays games like that and maybe teams that don’t blow-out over-matched opponents should be debited for that by not getting as much credit. I’m also worried that the points accumulated against unranked teams might be more prolific than the points against ranked teams because that would be more games. What I’ll do is to keep track of them separately and also add them together. That way, if I decide I don’t like the new stat, I can just report the points “against ranked teams”.
TOP TEN AGAINST RANKED TEAMS
Iowa +168
West Virginia +163
Kansas +134
Michigan +126
Texas +117
Gonzaga +109
Oklahoma +108
Baylor +102
Illinois +100
Minnesota +98
TOP TEN AS A RANKED TEAM AGAINST UNRANKED TEAMS
Texas Tech +123
Ohio State +91
Illinois +50
Baylor +46
Rutgers +45
Houston +40
Gonzaga +34
Drake +18
Texas +17
Loyola (Chicago) +16
North Carolina +16
TOP TEN COMBINED
Texas Tech +216
Ohio State +190
Iowa +158
Gonzaga +153
Illinois +150
Baylor +148
Texas +134
Michigan +132
Kansas +117
Oklahoma +103
The Big 10 and Big 12 are clearly the best conferences this year and many of their teams are ranked. Then they pump up each other’s ratings here because they are constantly playing each other.
Syracuse has played two teams that were ranked when we played them, Rutgers, who was ranked #21 when we played them. We lost to them by 10 points. Now we’ve beaten #16 Virginia Tech by 18 points and lost to #8 Virginia by 23 points so, under this system, we’ve got +18 points. Our remaining scheduled opponents have the following combined total points:
Georgia Tech +86
North Carolina +38
Clemson -73
To the extent that these numbers mean anything, we could be looking at a 1-2 finish, which would put us at 14-9, (8-8). Would that get us into the Big Dance? I don’t know. We will probably need a run in the ACCT, just as we needed it last year.
I didn’t do that for this year’s football season because with some conferences opting out and then opting back in later in the seasons, the rankings were a mess. But everybody is playing basketball now, or trying to, so I’ve decided to keep track of performances against ranked teams in this sport. I’ve decided to add an extra wrinkle: I will keep track of the performances of the ranked teams themselves by totaling the points earned against them, with the +/- reversed. This will measure their performance “as a ranked team” We’ll see how that goes and I’ll decide whether to continue with that.
(First alteration: When ranked teams play each other, their only points will be under the first test. Otherwise the Gonzaga-Kansas game would look like this:
Gonzaga beat #6 Kansas 102-90: Gonzaga +32 Kansas -32
Kansas lost to #1 Gonzaga 90-102: Kansas +13 Gonzaga -13
That would give Gonzaga +19 points and Kansas -19 points. They should both get credit for playing each other in a competitive game. Giving Gonzaga +32 points and Kansas +13 makes more sense.)
WEEK THIRTEEN (2/15-21)
Florida State beat #7 Virginia 81-60: Florida State +40 both ranked
Virginia lost to #16 Florida State 60-81: Virginia -11 both ranked
Northwestern lost to #5 Illinois 66-73: Northwestern +14 Illinois -14
Georgia beat #20 Missouri 80-70: Georgia +16 Missouri -16
Florida lost to #24 Arkansas 64-75: Florida -9 Arkansas +9
Northwestern lost to #5 Illinois 66-73: Northwestern +14 Illinois -14
Georgia beat #20 Missouri 80-70: Georgia +16 Missouri -16
Florida lost to #24 Arkansas 64-75: Florida -9 Arkansas +9
Arizona State lost to #17 So California 71-89: Arizona State -9 So California +9
South Carolina lost to #19 Tennessee 73-93: South Carolina -13 Tennessee +13
Valparaiso lost to #22 Loyola (Chicago) 52-54: Valparaiso +2 Loyola (Chicago) -2
Kansas State lost to #23 Kansas 41-59: Kansas State -15 Kansas +15
St. Mary’s lost to #1 Gonzaga 65-87: St. Mary’s +3 Gonzaga -3
Rutgers lost to #3 Michigan 64-71: Rutgers +16 Michigan -16
Penn State lost to #4 Ohio State 82-92: Penn State +12 Ohio State -12
Wichita State beat #6 Houston 68-63: Wichita State +25 Houston -25
Iowa beat #21 Wisconsin 77-62: Iowa +20 both ranked
Wisconsin lost to #11 Iowa 62-77: Wisconsin 0 both ranked
Fresno State lost to #25 San Diego State 53-67: Fresno State -13 San Diego State +13
San Diego lost to #1 Gonzaga 69-106: San Diego -12 Gonzaga +12
Minnesota lost to #5 Illinois 63-94: Minnesota -10 Illinois +10
Duke beat #7 Virginia 66-65: Duke +20 Virginia -20
Vanderbilt lost to #8 Alabama 78-82: Vanderbilt +14 Alabama -14
Iowa State lost to #9 Oklahoma 56-68: Iowa State +5 Oklahoma -5
Connecticut lost to #10 Villanova 60-68: Connecticut +8 Villanova -8
West Virginia beat #12 Texas 84-82: West Virginia +16 both ranked
Texas lost to #13 West Virginia 82-84: Texas +11 both ranked
Kansas beat #15 Texas Tech 67-61: Kansas +17 both ranked
Texas Tech lost to #23 Kansas 61-67: Texas Tech -3 both ranked
Pittsburgh lost to #16 Florida State 72-79: Pittsburgh +3 Florida State -3
Arizona beat #17 Southern California 81-72: Arizona +18 So California -18
Kentucky beat #19 Tennessee 70-55: Kentucky +22 Tennessee -22
South Carolina lost to #20 Missouri 78-93: South Carolina -9 Missouri +9
Fresno State lost to #25 San Diego State 57-75: Fresno State -17 San Diego State +17
Michigan beat #4 Ohio State 92-87: Michigan +27 both ranked
Ohio State lost to #3 Michigan 87-92: Ohio State +18 both ranked
Cincinnati lost to #6 Houston 52-90: Cincinnati -18 Houston +18
Penn State lost to #11 Iowa 68-74: Penn State +9 Iowa -9
Northwestern lost to #21 Wisconsin 51-68: Northwestern -12 Wisconsin +12
After recording these scores, I’m not sure how I feel about the new stat. it gives too much credit for blow-out wins over over-matched opponents. But everyone plays games like that and maybe teams that don’t blow-out over-matched opponents should be debited for that by not getting as much credit. I’m also worried that the points accumulated against unranked teams might be more prolific than the points against ranked teams because that would be more games. What I’ll do is to keep track of them separately and also add them together. That way, if I decide I don’t like the new stat, I can just report the points “against ranked teams”.
TOP TEN AGAINST RANKED TEAMS
Iowa +168
West Virginia +163
Kansas +134
Michigan +126
Texas +117
Gonzaga +109
Oklahoma +108
Baylor +102
Illinois +100
Minnesota +98
TOP TEN AS A RANKED TEAM AGAINST UNRANKED TEAMS
Texas Tech +123
Ohio State +91
Illinois +50
Baylor +46
Rutgers +45
Houston +40
Gonzaga +34
Drake +18
Texas +17
Loyola (Chicago) +16
North Carolina +16
TOP TEN COMBINED
Texas Tech +216
Ohio State +190
Iowa +158
Gonzaga +153
Illinois +150
Baylor +148
Texas +134
Michigan +132
Kansas +117
Oklahoma +103
The Big 10 and Big 12 are clearly the best conferences this year and many of their teams are ranked. Then they pump up each other’s ratings here because they are constantly playing each other.
Syracuse has played two teams that were ranked when we played them, Rutgers, who was ranked #21 when we played them. We lost to them by 10 points. Now we’ve beaten #16 Virginia Tech by 18 points and lost to #8 Virginia by 23 points so, under this system, we’ve got +18 points. Our remaining scheduled opponents have the following combined total points:
Georgia Tech +86
North Carolina +38
Clemson -73
To the extent that these numbers mean anything, we could be looking at a 1-2 finish, which would put us at 14-9, (8-8). Would that get us into the Big Dance? I don’t know. We will probably need a run in the ACCT, just as we needed it last year.
