Against Ranked Teams - Week 3

[SWC75]

The last few years I’ve attempted to quantify team’s performances against ranked teams, (historically a big factor in decisions made about getting into playoffs) with a system that gives points to teams for the ranking of their opponents and adds or subtracts the point differential in their games, (adds in a win, subtracts in a loss). The ‘ranking’ points are 25 for playing a #1 ranked team, 24 for playing a #2 ranked team, etc, down to 1 point for playing a 25th ranked team. These points are easily computed by subtracting the ranking number from 26, (26-1 = 25; 26-25 =1, etc). Over the course of the season, I add the points earned by each team in their games against ranked teams as a sort of standings but have always maintained that this is just one thing to look at in evaluating the team, not a final overall ranking.

Last year I added a new wrinkle to the basketball version of this. I totaled the points each ranked team’s opponent earned against them, (positive or negative) to get a measure of how well the ranked teams performed in these games. I then added those points together with the points against ranked teams to make my NCAA picks and it worked out pretty well so I decided to try it for football. The numbers will gain meaning each week and should be very interesting by the end of the season.

One thing I’ve found is that when ranked teams play each other, it works better if I just keep track of “against ranked teams” Example:
#5 Georgia beat #3 Clemson 10-3 Georgia +30 Clemson -30
#3 Clemson lost to #5 Georgia 3-10 Clemson +14 Georgia -14
If you add them together Georgia gets +16 and Clemson -16 yet the game was decided by 7 points.
So the first figure is “against ranked teams and the second figure “as a ranked team against an unranked team”.

WEEK 3 (9/16-18)
Michigan State beat #23 U of Miami 38-17 Michigan State +24 U of Miami -24
Florida lost to #1 Alabama 29-31 Florida +23 both ranked
Alabama beat #11 Florida 31-29 Alabama +17 both ranked
West Virginia beat #15 Virginia Tech 27-21 West Virginia +17 Virginia Tech -17
Brigham Young beat #19 Arizona State 27-17 Brigham Young +17 both ranked
Nebraska lost to #3 Oklahoma 16-23 Nebraska +16 Oklahoma -16
Fresno State beat #13 UCLA 40-37 Fresno State +16 UCLA -16
Georgia Tech lost to #6 Clemson 8-14 Georgia Tech +14 Clemson -14
Penn State beat #22 Auburn 28-20 Penn State +12 both ranked
Auburn lost to #10 Penn State 20-28 Auburn +8 both ranked
Buffalo lost to #16 Coastal Carolina 25-28 Buffalo +7 Coastal Carolina -7
Purdue lost to #12 Notre Dame 13-27 Purdue 0 Notre Dame 0
Kent State lost to #5 Iowa 7-30 Kent State -2 Iowa +2
South Carolina lost to #2 Georgia 13-40 South Carolina -3 Georgia +3
Tulsa lost to #9 Ohio State 20-41 Tulsa -4 Ohio State +4
Arizona State lost to #23 Brigham Young 17-27 Arizona State -7 both ranked
New Mexico lost to #7 Texas A&M 0-34 New Mexico -15 Texas A&M +15
Virginia lost to #21 North Carolina 39-59 Virginia -15 North Carolina +15
Stony Brook lost to #4 Oregon 7-48 Stony Brook -19 Oregon +19
Georgia Southern lost to #20 Arkansas 10-45 Georgia Southern -29 Arkansas +29
Tulane lost to #17 Mississippi 21-61 Tulane -31 Mississippi +31
UNLV lost to #14 Iowa State 3-48 UNLV -33 Iowa State +33
Northern Illinois lost to #25 Michigan 10-63 Northern Illinois -52 Michigan +52


Top 10 Against Ranked Teams through Week 2
Iowa +64
Alabama +60
Penn State +32
Brigham Young +31
Arkansas +30
Georgia +30
Oregon +30
Stanford +26
Fresno State +24
Michigan State +24


Top 10 as a Ranked Team Against Unranked Teams through Week 2
Mississippi +62
Auburn +61
Coastal Carolina +52
Michigan +52
Cincinnati +33
North Carolina +32
Arkansas +29
Georgia +28
Clemson +26
Arizona State +24