SWC75
Bored Historian
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- Aug 26, 2011
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The last few years I’ve attempted to quantify team’s performances against ranked teams, (historically a big factor in decisions made about getting into playoffs) with a system that gives points to teams for the ranking of their opponents and adds or subtracts the point differential in their games, (adds in a win, subtracts in a loss). The ‘ranking’ points are 25 for playing a #1 ranked team, 24 for playing a #2 ranked team, etc., down to 1 point for playing a 25th ranked team. These points are easily computed by subtracting the ranking number from 26, (26-1 = 25; 26-25 =1, etc.). Over the course of the season, I add the points earned by each team in their games against ranked teams as a sort of standings but have always maintained that this is just one thing to look at in evaluating the team, not a final overall ranking.
Last year I added a new wrinkle to the basketball version of this. I totaled the points each ranked team’s opponent earned against them, (positive or negative) to get a measure of how well the ranked teams performed in these games. I then added those points together with the points against ranked teams to make my NCAA picks and it worked out pretty well so I decided to try it for football. The numbers will gain meaning each week and should be very interesting by the end of the season.
One thing I’ve found is that when ranked teams play each other, it works better if I just keep track of “against ranked teams” Example:
#5 Georgia beat #3 Clemson 10-3 Georgia +30 Clemson -30
#3 Clemson lost to #5 Georgia 3-10 Clemson +14 Georgia -14
If you add them together Georgia gets +16 and Clemson -16 yet the game was decided by 7 points.
So the first figure is “against ranked teams and the second figure “as a ranked team against an unranked team”.
WEEK 4 (9/24-25)
Notre Dame beat #18 Wisconsin 41-13 Notre Dame +36 both ranked
Arkansas beat #7 Texas A&M 20-10 Arkansas +29 both ranked
Georgia Tech beat #21 North Carolina 45-22 Georgia Tech +28 North Carolina -28
North Carolina State beat #9 Clemson 27-21 NC State +23 Clemson -23
West Virginia lost to #4 Oklahoma 13-16 West Virginia +19 Oklahoma -19
Baylor beat #14 Iowa State 31-29 Baylor +14 Iowa State -14
Oklahoma State beat #25 Kansas State 31-20 Oklahoma State +12 Kansas State -12
Colorado State lost to #5 Iowa 14-24 Colorado State +11 Iowa State -11
Stanford lost to #24 UCLA 24-35 Stanford +9 UCLA -9
Texas A&M lost to #16 Arkansas 10-20 Texas A&M +6 both ranked
Nebraska lost to #20 Michigan State 20-23 Nebraska +3 Michigan State -3
South Florida lost to #15 Brigham Young 27-35 South Florida +3 Brigham Young -3
Arizona lost to #3 Oregon 19-41 Arizona +1 Oregon -1
Rutgers lost to #19 Michigan 13-20 Rutgers 0 Michigan 0
Villanova lost to #6 Penn State 17-38 Villanova -1 Penn State +1
UNLV lost to #22 Fresno State 30-38 UNLV -4 Fresno State +4
Georgia State lost to #23 Auburn 24-34 Georgia State -7 Auburn +7
Tennessee lost to #11 Florida 14-38 Tennessee -9 Florida +9
Wisconsin lost to #12 Notre Dame 13-41 Wisconsin -14 both ranked
Southern Mississippi lost to #1 Alabama 14-63 So Mississippi -24 Alabama +24
Akron lost to #10 Ohio State 7-59 Akron -36 Ohio State +36
Vanderbilt lost to #2 Georgia 0-62 Vanderbilt -38 Georgia +38
Massachusetts lost to #17 Coastal Carolina 3-53 Massachusetts -41 Coastal Carolina +41
Top 10 Against Ranked Teams through Week 2
Iowa +64
Alabama +60
Arkansas +59
Georgia Tech +42
Notre Dame +36
West Virginia +36
Stanford +35
Penn State +32
Brigham Young +31
Georgia +30
Oregon +30
Top 10 as a Ranked Team Against Unranked Teams through Week 2
Coastal Carolina +93
Auburn +68
Georgia +66
Mississippi +62
Michigan +52
Ohio State +43
Alabama +33
Cincinnati +33
Florida +31
Arkansas +29
Last year I added a new wrinkle to the basketball version of this. I totaled the points each ranked team’s opponent earned against them, (positive or negative) to get a measure of how well the ranked teams performed in these games. I then added those points together with the points against ranked teams to make my NCAA picks and it worked out pretty well so I decided to try it for football. The numbers will gain meaning each week and should be very interesting by the end of the season.
One thing I’ve found is that when ranked teams play each other, it works better if I just keep track of “against ranked teams” Example:
#5 Georgia beat #3 Clemson 10-3 Georgia +30 Clemson -30
#3 Clemson lost to #5 Georgia 3-10 Clemson +14 Georgia -14
If you add them together Georgia gets +16 and Clemson -16 yet the game was decided by 7 points.
So the first figure is “against ranked teams and the second figure “as a ranked team against an unranked team”.
WEEK 4 (9/24-25)
Notre Dame beat #18 Wisconsin 41-13 Notre Dame +36 both ranked
Arkansas beat #7 Texas A&M 20-10 Arkansas +29 both ranked
Georgia Tech beat #21 North Carolina 45-22 Georgia Tech +28 North Carolina -28
North Carolina State beat #9 Clemson 27-21 NC State +23 Clemson -23
West Virginia lost to #4 Oklahoma 13-16 West Virginia +19 Oklahoma -19
Baylor beat #14 Iowa State 31-29 Baylor +14 Iowa State -14
Oklahoma State beat #25 Kansas State 31-20 Oklahoma State +12 Kansas State -12
Colorado State lost to #5 Iowa 14-24 Colorado State +11 Iowa State -11
Stanford lost to #24 UCLA 24-35 Stanford +9 UCLA -9
Texas A&M lost to #16 Arkansas 10-20 Texas A&M +6 both ranked
Nebraska lost to #20 Michigan State 20-23 Nebraska +3 Michigan State -3
South Florida lost to #15 Brigham Young 27-35 South Florida +3 Brigham Young -3
Arizona lost to #3 Oregon 19-41 Arizona +1 Oregon -1
Rutgers lost to #19 Michigan 13-20 Rutgers 0 Michigan 0
Villanova lost to #6 Penn State 17-38 Villanova -1 Penn State +1
UNLV lost to #22 Fresno State 30-38 UNLV -4 Fresno State +4
Georgia State lost to #23 Auburn 24-34 Georgia State -7 Auburn +7
Tennessee lost to #11 Florida 14-38 Tennessee -9 Florida +9
Wisconsin lost to #12 Notre Dame 13-41 Wisconsin -14 both ranked
Southern Mississippi lost to #1 Alabama 14-63 So Mississippi -24 Alabama +24
Akron lost to #10 Ohio State 7-59 Akron -36 Ohio State +36
Vanderbilt lost to #2 Georgia 0-62 Vanderbilt -38 Georgia +38
Massachusetts lost to #17 Coastal Carolina 3-53 Massachusetts -41 Coastal Carolina +41
Top 10 Against Ranked Teams through Week 2
Iowa +64
Alabama +60
Arkansas +59
Georgia Tech +42
Notre Dame +36
West Virginia +36
Stanford +35
Penn State +32
Brigham Young +31
Georgia +30
Oregon +30
Top 10 as a Ranked Team Against Unranked Teams through Week 2
Coastal Carolina +93
Auburn +68
Georgia +66
Mississippi +62
Michigan +52
Ohio State +43
Alabama +33
Cincinnati +33
Florida +31
Arkansas +29
