SWC75
Bored Historian
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- Aug 26, 2011
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The last few years I’ve attempted to quantify team’s performances against ranked teams, (historically a big factor in decisions made about getting into playoffs) with a system that gives points to teams for the ranking of their opponents and adds or subtracts the point differential in their games, (adds in a win, subtracts in a loss). The ‘ranking’ points are 25 for playing a #1 ranked team, 24 for playing a #2 ranked team, etc., down to 1 point for playing a 25th ranked team. These points are easily computed by subtracting the ranking number from 26, (26-1 = 25; 26-25 =1, etc.). Over the course of the season, I add the points earned by each team in their games against ranked teams as a sort of standings but have always maintained that this is just one thing to look at in evaluating the team, not a final overall ranking.
Last year I added a new wrinkle to the basketball version of this. I totaled the points each ranked team’s opponent earned against them, (positive or negative) to get a measure of how well the ranked teams performed in these games. I then added those points together with the points against ranked teams to make my NCAA picks and it worked out pretty well so I decided to try it for football. The numbers will gain meaning each week and should be very interesting by the end of the season.
One thing I’ve found is that when ranked teams play each other, it works better if I just keep track of “against ranked teams” Example:
#5 Georgia beat #3 Clemson 10-3 Georgia +30 Clemson -30
#3 Clemson lost to #5 Georgia 3-10 Clemson +14 Georgia -14
If you add them together Georgia gets +16 and Clemson -16 yet the game was decided by 7 points.
So the first figure is “against ranked teams and the second figure “as a ranked team against an unranked team”.
WEEK 8 (10/20-23/21)
Illinois beat #7 Penn State 20-18 Illinois +21 Penn State -21
Iowa State beat #8 Oklahoma State 24-21 Iowa State +21 Oklahoma State -21
Wisconsin beat #25 Purdue 30-13 Wisconsin +18 Purdue -18
Navy lost to #2 Cincinnati 20-27 Navy +17 Cincinnati -17
Appalachian State beat #14 Coastal Carolina 30-27 Appalachian State +15 Coastal Carolina -15
UCLA lost to #10 Oregon 31-34 UCLA +13 Oregon -13
Kansas lost to #3 Oklahoma 23-35 Kansas +11 Oklahoma -11
U of Miami beat #18 North Carolina State 31-30 U of Miami +9 No Carolina St -9
Louisiana State lost to #12 Mississippi 17-31 Louisiana State 0 Mississippi 0
Air Force lost to #22 San Diego State 14-20 Air Force -2 San Diego State +2
Southern California lost to #13 Notre Dame 16-31 So California -2 Notre Dame +2
Army lost to #16 Wake Forest 56-70 Army -4 Wake Forest +4
Northwestern lost to #6 Michigan 7-33 Northwestern -6 Michigan +6
Tennessee lost to #4 Alabama 24-52 Tennessee -6 Alabama +6
Clemson lost to #23 Pittsburgh 17-27 Clemson -7 Pittsburgh +7
South Carolina lost to #17 Texas A&M 14-44 South Carolina -23 Texas A&M +23
Tulane lost to #21 Southern Methodist 26-55 Tulane -24 So Methodist +24
Indiana lost to #5 Ohio State 7-54 Indiana -26 Ohio State +26
Louisiana Tech lost to #24 Texas-San Antonio 16-45 Louisiana Tech -27 Texas San Antonio +27
Top 10 Against Ranked Teams through Week 2
Georgia +149
Alabama +95
Iowa +89
Arkansas +54
Penn State +54
Stanford +51
Notre Dame +44
Georgia Tech +42
Texas +42
Purdue +41
Syracuse is at +4 after the Wake Forest game.
SU’s opponents: Ohio none Rutgers -27 Albany none Liberty none Florida State +14 Wake Forest none Clemson +7 Virginia Tech +32 Boston College -27 Louisville -1 North Carolina State +23 Pittsburgh none
The worst team on this list is Vanderbilt at -74
Top 10 as a Ranked Team Against Unranked Teams through Week 2
Coastal Carolina +135
Ohio State +73
Auburn +68
Georgia +66
Mississippi +54
Michigan +53
Cincinnati +51
Alabama +35
Nebraska +33
Texas A&M +32
Syracuse has not been ranked so they have had no opportunity to accumulate points on this list.
SU’s opponents: Ohio none Rutgers none Albany none Liberty none Florida State none Wake Forest +1 Clemson -6 Virginia Tech -3 Boston College none Louisville none North Carolina State +17 Pittsburgh +7
The worst team on this list is Notre Dame at -36
Last year I added a new wrinkle to the basketball version of this. I totaled the points each ranked team’s opponent earned against them, (positive or negative) to get a measure of how well the ranked teams performed in these games. I then added those points together with the points against ranked teams to make my NCAA picks and it worked out pretty well so I decided to try it for football. The numbers will gain meaning each week and should be very interesting by the end of the season.
One thing I’ve found is that when ranked teams play each other, it works better if I just keep track of “against ranked teams” Example:
#5 Georgia beat #3 Clemson 10-3 Georgia +30 Clemson -30
#3 Clemson lost to #5 Georgia 3-10 Clemson +14 Georgia -14
If you add them together Georgia gets +16 and Clemson -16 yet the game was decided by 7 points.
So the first figure is “against ranked teams and the second figure “as a ranked team against an unranked team”.
WEEK 8 (10/20-23/21)
Illinois beat #7 Penn State 20-18 Illinois +21 Penn State -21
Iowa State beat #8 Oklahoma State 24-21 Iowa State +21 Oklahoma State -21
Wisconsin beat #25 Purdue 30-13 Wisconsin +18 Purdue -18
Navy lost to #2 Cincinnati 20-27 Navy +17 Cincinnati -17
Appalachian State beat #14 Coastal Carolina 30-27 Appalachian State +15 Coastal Carolina -15
UCLA lost to #10 Oregon 31-34 UCLA +13 Oregon -13
Kansas lost to #3 Oklahoma 23-35 Kansas +11 Oklahoma -11
U of Miami beat #18 North Carolina State 31-30 U of Miami +9 No Carolina St -9
Louisiana State lost to #12 Mississippi 17-31 Louisiana State 0 Mississippi 0
Air Force lost to #22 San Diego State 14-20 Air Force -2 San Diego State +2
Southern California lost to #13 Notre Dame 16-31 So California -2 Notre Dame +2
Army lost to #16 Wake Forest 56-70 Army -4 Wake Forest +4
Northwestern lost to #6 Michigan 7-33 Northwestern -6 Michigan +6
Tennessee lost to #4 Alabama 24-52 Tennessee -6 Alabama +6
Clemson lost to #23 Pittsburgh 17-27 Clemson -7 Pittsburgh +7
South Carolina lost to #17 Texas A&M 14-44 South Carolina -23 Texas A&M +23
Tulane lost to #21 Southern Methodist 26-55 Tulane -24 So Methodist +24
Indiana lost to #5 Ohio State 7-54 Indiana -26 Ohio State +26
Louisiana Tech lost to #24 Texas-San Antonio 16-45 Louisiana Tech -27 Texas San Antonio +27
Top 10 Against Ranked Teams through Week 2
Georgia +149
Alabama +95
Iowa +89
Arkansas +54
Penn State +54
Stanford +51
Notre Dame +44
Georgia Tech +42
Texas +42
Purdue +41
Syracuse is at +4 after the Wake Forest game.
SU’s opponents: Ohio none Rutgers -27 Albany none Liberty none Florida State +14 Wake Forest none Clemson +7 Virginia Tech +32 Boston College -27 Louisville -1 North Carolina State +23 Pittsburgh none
The worst team on this list is Vanderbilt at -74
Top 10 as a Ranked Team Against Unranked Teams through Week 2
Coastal Carolina +135
Ohio State +73
Auburn +68
Georgia +66
Mississippi +54
Michigan +53
Cincinnati +51
Alabama +35
Nebraska +33
Texas A&M +32
Syracuse has not been ranked so they have had no opportunity to accumulate points on this list.
SU’s opponents: Ohio none Rutgers none Albany none Liberty none Florida State none Wake Forest +1 Clemson -6 Virginia Tech -3 Boston College none Louisville none North Carolina State +17 Pittsburgh +7
The worst team on this list is Notre Dame at -36
