SWC75
Bored Historian
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- Aug 26, 2011
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The last few years I’ve attempted to quantify team’s performances against ranked teams, (historically a big factor in decisions made about getting into playoffs) with a system that gives points to teams for the ranking of their opponents and adds or subtracts the point differential in their games, (adds in a win, subtracts in a loss). The ‘ranking’ points are 25 for playing a #1 ranked team, 24 for playing a #2 ranked team, etc, down to 1 point for playing a 25th ranked team. These points are easily computed by subtracting the ranking number from 26, (26-1 = 25; 26-25 =1, etc). Over the course of the season, I add the points earned by each team in their games against ranked teams as a sort of standings but have always maintained that this is just one thing to look at in evaluating the team, not a final overall ranking.
I didn’t do that for this year’s football season because with some conferences opting out and then opting back in later in the seasons, the rankings were a mess. But everybody is playing basketball now, or trying to, so I’ve decided to keep track of performances against ranked teams in this sport. I’ve decided to add an extra wrinkle: I will keep track of the performances of the ranked teams themselves by totaling the points earned against them, with the +/- reversed. This will measure their performance “as a ranked team” We’ll see how that goes and I’ll decide whether to continue with that.
(First alteration: When ranked teams play each other, their only points will be under the first test. Otherwise the Gonzaga-Kansas game would look like this:
Gonzaga beat #6 Kansas 102-90: Gonzaga +32 Kansas -32
Kansas lost to #1 Gonzaga 90-102: Kansas +13 Gonzaga -13
That would give Gonzaga +19 points and Kansas -19 points. They should both get credit for playing each other in a competitive game. Giving Gonzalez +32 points and Kansas +13 makes more sense.)
WEEK FOUR (12/14-20)
Marquette beat #9 Creighton 89-84: Marquette +17 Creighton -17
Maryland lost to #19 Rutgers 60-74: Maryland -7 Rutgers +7
Appalachian State lost to #10 Tennessee 38-79: App State -25 Tennessee +25
Loyola-Chicago lost to #12 Wisconsin 63-77: Loyola-Chicago 0 Wisconsin 0
Minnesota lost to #13 Illinois 65-92: Minnesota -14 Illinois +14
Georgia Tech lost to #15 Florida State 61-74: Georgia Tech -2 Florida State +2
Virginia Tech beat #24 Clemson 66-60: Virginia Tech +8 Clemson -8
Butler lost to #7 Villanova 66-85: Butler 0 Villanova 0
Sam Houston State lost to #11 Texas 63-79: Sam Houston St. -1 Texas +1
Purdue beat #20 Ohio State 67-60: Purdue +13 Ohio State -13
Notre Dame lost to #21 Duke 65-75: Notre Dame -6 Duke +6
Kansas beat #14 Texas Tech 58-57: Kansas +13 both ranked
Texas Tech lost to #5 Kansas 57-58: Texas Tech +20 both ranked
St. John’s lost to #9 Creighton 76-94: St. John’s -1 Creighton +1
Iowa State lost to #8 West Virginia 65-70: Iowa State +13 West Virginia -13
Tennessee Tech lost to #10 Tennessee 49-103: Tennessee Tech -38 Tennessee +38
Brigham Young beat #18 San Diego State 72-62: Brigham Young +18 San Diego State -18
Gonzaga beat #3 Iowa 99-88: Gonzaga +34 both ranked
Iowa lost to #1 Gonzaga 88-99: Iowa +14 both ranked
Wisconsin beat #23 Louisville 85-48: Wisconsin +40 both ranked
Louisville lost to #12 Wisconsin 48-85: Louisville -23 both ranked
Kentucky lost to #22 North Carolina 63-75: Kentucky -8 North Carolina +8
Kansas State lost to #2 Baylor 69-100: Kansas State -7 Baylor +7
St. Joseph’s lost to #7 Villanova 68-88: St. Joseph’s -1 Villanova +1
Central Florida beat #15 Florida State 86-74: Central Florida +23 Florida State -23
UCLA lost to #20 Ohio State 70-77: UCLA -1 Ohio State +1
Northwestern beat #4 Michigan State 79-65: Northwestern +36 Michigan State -36
Alcorn State lost to #6 Houston 55-88: Alcorn State -13 Houston +13
Connecticut lost to #9 Creighton 74-76: Connecticut +15 Creighton -15
Oklahoma State lost to #11 Texas 74-77: Oklahoma State +12 Texas -12
Rutgers beat #11 Illinois 91-88: Rutgers +18 both ranked
Illinois lost to #19 Rutgers 88-91: Illinois +4 both ranked
After recording these scores, I’m not sure how I feel about the new stat. it gives too much credit for blow-out wins over over-matched opponents. But everyone plays games like that and maybe teams that don’t blow-out over-matched opponents should be debited for that by not getting as much credit. I’m also worried that the points accumulated against unranked teams might be more prolific than the points against ranked teams because that would be more games. What I’ll do is to keep track of them separately and also add them together. That way, if I decide I don’t like the new stat, I can just report the points “against ranked teams”.
TOP TEN AGAINST RANKED TEAMS
Gonzaga +76
Kansas +54
Illinois +46
Marquette +41
Wisconsin +40
Virginia Tech +39
Iowa +37
Missouri +36
Northwestern +36
San Diego State +34
TOP TEN AS A RANKED TEAM AGAINST UNRANKED TEAMS
Texas Tech +127
Iowa +68
Ohio State +64
Rutgers +64
Illinois +60
Tennessee +55
Ohio State +52
Houston +43
Texas +32
Baylor +30
Creighton +30
TOP TEN COMBINED
Texas Tech +145
Illinois +106
Iowa +105
Rutgers +82
Kansas +81
Gonzaga +74
Houston +66
Penn State +57
Texas +56
Tennessee +55
I didn’t do that for this year’s football season because with some conferences opting out and then opting back in later in the seasons, the rankings were a mess. But everybody is playing basketball now, or trying to, so I’ve decided to keep track of performances against ranked teams in this sport. I’ve decided to add an extra wrinkle: I will keep track of the performances of the ranked teams themselves by totaling the points earned against them, with the +/- reversed. This will measure their performance “as a ranked team” We’ll see how that goes and I’ll decide whether to continue with that.
(First alteration: When ranked teams play each other, their only points will be under the first test. Otherwise the Gonzaga-Kansas game would look like this:
Gonzaga beat #6 Kansas 102-90: Gonzaga +32 Kansas -32
Kansas lost to #1 Gonzaga 90-102: Kansas +13 Gonzaga -13
That would give Gonzaga +19 points and Kansas -19 points. They should both get credit for playing each other in a competitive game. Giving Gonzalez +32 points and Kansas +13 makes more sense.)
WEEK FOUR (12/14-20)
Marquette beat #9 Creighton 89-84: Marquette +17 Creighton -17
Maryland lost to #19 Rutgers 60-74: Maryland -7 Rutgers +7
Appalachian State lost to #10 Tennessee 38-79: App State -25 Tennessee +25
Loyola-Chicago lost to #12 Wisconsin 63-77: Loyola-Chicago 0 Wisconsin 0
Minnesota lost to #13 Illinois 65-92: Minnesota -14 Illinois +14
Georgia Tech lost to #15 Florida State 61-74: Georgia Tech -2 Florida State +2
Virginia Tech beat #24 Clemson 66-60: Virginia Tech +8 Clemson -8
Butler lost to #7 Villanova 66-85: Butler 0 Villanova 0
Sam Houston State lost to #11 Texas 63-79: Sam Houston St. -1 Texas +1
Purdue beat #20 Ohio State 67-60: Purdue +13 Ohio State -13
Notre Dame lost to #21 Duke 65-75: Notre Dame -6 Duke +6
Kansas beat #14 Texas Tech 58-57: Kansas +13 both ranked
Texas Tech lost to #5 Kansas 57-58: Texas Tech +20 both ranked
St. John’s lost to #9 Creighton 76-94: St. John’s -1 Creighton +1
Iowa State lost to #8 West Virginia 65-70: Iowa State +13 West Virginia -13
Tennessee Tech lost to #10 Tennessee 49-103: Tennessee Tech -38 Tennessee +38
Brigham Young beat #18 San Diego State 72-62: Brigham Young +18 San Diego State -18
Gonzaga beat #3 Iowa 99-88: Gonzaga +34 both ranked
Iowa lost to #1 Gonzaga 88-99: Iowa +14 both ranked
Wisconsin beat #23 Louisville 85-48: Wisconsin +40 both ranked
Louisville lost to #12 Wisconsin 48-85: Louisville -23 both ranked
Kentucky lost to #22 North Carolina 63-75: Kentucky -8 North Carolina +8
Kansas State lost to #2 Baylor 69-100: Kansas State -7 Baylor +7
St. Joseph’s lost to #7 Villanova 68-88: St. Joseph’s -1 Villanova +1
Central Florida beat #15 Florida State 86-74: Central Florida +23 Florida State -23
UCLA lost to #20 Ohio State 70-77: UCLA -1 Ohio State +1
Northwestern beat #4 Michigan State 79-65: Northwestern +36 Michigan State -36
Alcorn State lost to #6 Houston 55-88: Alcorn State -13 Houston +13
Connecticut lost to #9 Creighton 74-76: Connecticut +15 Creighton -15
Oklahoma State lost to #11 Texas 74-77: Oklahoma State +12 Texas -12
Rutgers beat #11 Illinois 91-88: Rutgers +18 both ranked
Illinois lost to #19 Rutgers 88-91: Illinois +4 both ranked
After recording these scores, I’m not sure how I feel about the new stat. it gives too much credit for blow-out wins over over-matched opponents. But everyone plays games like that and maybe teams that don’t blow-out over-matched opponents should be debited for that by not getting as much credit. I’m also worried that the points accumulated against unranked teams might be more prolific than the points against ranked teams because that would be more games. What I’ll do is to keep track of them separately and also add them together. That way, if I decide I don’t like the new stat, I can just report the points “against ranked teams”.
TOP TEN AGAINST RANKED TEAMS
Gonzaga +76
Kansas +54
Illinois +46
Marquette +41
Wisconsin +40
Virginia Tech +39
Iowa +37
Missouri +36
Northwestern +36
San Diego State +34
TOP TEN AS A RANKED TEAM AGAINST UNRANKED TEAMS
Texas Tech +127
Iowa +68
Ohio State +64
Rutgers +64
Illinois +60
Tennessee +55
Ohio State +52
Houston +43
Texas +32
Baylor +30
Creighton +30
TOP TEN COMBINED
Texas Tech +145
Illinois +106
Iowa +105
Rutgers +82
Kansas +81
Gonzaga +74
Houston +66
Penn State +57
Texas +56
Tennessee +55
