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Message: [QUOTE="SWC75, post: 3761716, member: 289"] The last few years I’ve attempted to quantify team’s performances against ranked teams, (historically a big factor in decisions made about getting into playoffs) with a system that gives points to teams for the ranking of their opponents and adds or subtracts the point differential in their games, (adds in a win, subtracts in a loss). The ‘ranking’ points are 25 for playing a #1 ranked team, 24 for playing a #2 ranked team, etc, down to 1 point for playing a 25th ranked team. These points are easily computed by subtracting the ranking number from 26, (26-1 = 25; 26-25 =1, etc). Over the course of the season, I add the points earned by each team in their games against ranked teams as a sort of standings but have always maintained that this is just one thing to look at in evaluating the team, not a final overall ranking. I didn’t do that for this year’s football season because with some conferences opting out and then opting back in later in the seasons, the rankings were a mess. But everybody is playing basketball now, or trying to, so I’ve decided to keep track of performances against ranked teams in this sport. I’ve decided to add an extra wrinkle: I will keep track of the performances of the ranked teams themselves by totaling the points earned against them, with the +/- reversed. This will measure their performance “as a ranked team” We’ll see how that goes and I’ll decide whether to continue with that. (First alteration: When ranked teams play each other, their only points will be under the first test. Otherwise the Gonzaga-Kansas game would look like this: Gonzaga beat #6 Kansas 102-90: Gonzaga +32 Kansas -32 Kansas lost to #1 Gonzaga 90-102: Kansas +13 Gonzaga -13 That would give Gonzaga +19 points and Kansas -19 points. They should both get credit for playing each other in a competitive game. Giving Gonzaga +32 points and Kansas +13 makes more sense.) WEEK FOURTEEN (2/22-28) Oklahoma State beat #18 Texas Tech 74-69: Oklahoma State +13 Texas Tech -13 Oregon lost to #19 Southern California 58-72: Oregon -7 So California +7 Iowa State lost to #2 Baylor 72-77: Iowa State +19 Baylor -19 Michigan State beat #5 Illinois 81-72: Michigan State +30 Illinois -30 Kansas State beat #7 Oklahoma 62-57 Kansas State +24 Oklahoma -24 St. John’s lost to #8 Villanova 58-81: St. John’s -5 Villanova +5 Texas Christian lost to #10 West Virginia 66-74: Texas Christian +8 West Virginia -8 Texas beat #17 Kansas 75-72: Texas +12 both ranked Kansas lost to #14 Texas 72-75: Kansas +9 both ranked Georgia Tech beat #16 Virginia Tech 69-53: Georgia Tech +26 Virginia Tech -26 Mississippi beat #24 Missouri 53-60: Mississippi -5 Missouri +5 North Carolina State beat #15 Virginia 68-61: NC State +18 Virginia -18 U of Miami lost to #11 Florida State 71-88: U of Miami -2 Florida State +2 DePaul lost to #13 Creighton 53-77: DePaul -11 Creighton +11 Vanderbilt lost to #25 Tennessee 58-70: Vanderbilt -11 Tennessee +11 Alabama lost to #20 Arkansas 66-81: Alabama -9 both ranked Arkansas beat #6 Alabama 81-66: Arkansas +35 both ranked Santa Clara lost to #1 Gonzaga 75-89: Santa Clara +11 Gonzaga -11 Iowa lost to #3 Michigan 57-79: Iowa +1 both ranked Michigan beat #9 Iowa 79-57: Michigan +39 both ranked Michigan State beat #4 Ohio State 71-67: Michigan State +26 Ohio State -26 Nebraska lost to #5 Illinois 70-86: Nebraska +5 Illinois -5 Western Kentucky lost to #12 Houston 57-81: Western Kentucky -10 Houston +10 Colorado beat #19 Southern California 80-62: Colorado +25 So California -25 Boise State lost to #22 San Diego State 66-78: Boise State -8 San Diego State +8 Southern Illinois lost to #21 Loyola (Chic) 52-60: So Illinois -3 Loyola (Chic) +3 Loyola-Marymount lost to #1 Gonzaga 69-86: Loyola Marymount +8 Gonzaga -8 Kansas beat #2 Baylor 71-58: Kansas +37 both ranked Baylor lost to #17 Kansas 58-71: Baylor -4 both ranked Indiana lost to #3 Michigan 57-73: Indiana +7 Michigan -7 Wisconsin lost to #5 Illinois 69-74: Wisconsin +16 both ranked Illinois beat #23 Wisconsin 74-69: Illinois +8 both ranked Mississippi State lost to #6 Alabama 59-64: Mississippi St +15 Alabama -15 Oklahoma State beat #7 Oklahoma 94-90: Oklahoma State +23 Oklahoma -23 Kansas State lost to #10 West Virginia 43-65: Kansas State -6 West Virginia +6 North Carolina beat #11 Florida State 78-70: North Carolina +23 Florida State -23 Xavier beat #13 Creighton 77-69: Xavier +21 Creighton -21 Texas Tech beat #14 Texas 68-59: Texas Tech +21 both ranked Texas lost to #18 Texas Tech 59-68: Texas -1 both ranked Wake Forest lost to #16 Virginia Tech 46-84: Wake Forest -28 Virginia Tech +28 Utah lost to #19 Southern California 71-61: Utah +17 So California -17 Louisiana State lost to #20 Arkansas 75-83: Louisiana State -2 Arkansas +2 Southern Illinois lost to #21 Loyola (Chic) 58-65: Southern Illinois -2 Loyola (Chic) +2 Boise State lost to #22 San Diego State 58-62: Boise State 0 San Diego State 0 Auburn beat #25 Tennessee 77-72: Auburn +6 Tennessee -6 Iowa beat #4 Ohio State 73-57: Iowa +38 both ranked Ohio State lost to #9 Iowa 57-73: Ohio State +1 both ranked Butler beat #8 Villanova 73-61: Butler +30 Villanova -30 Southern Florida lost to #12 Houston 52-98: South Florida -32 Houston +32 WEEK FOURTEEN (3/1-7) Oklahoma State beat #16 Oklahoma 79-75: Oklahoma State +13 both ranked Oklahoma lost to #17 Oklahoma State 75-79: Oklahoma +6 both ranked U of Miami lost to #21 Virginia 51-62: U of Miami -6 Virginia +6 Illinois beat #2 Michigan 76-53: Illinois +47 both ranked Michigan lost to #4 Illinois 53-76: Michigan -1 both ranked Baylor beat #6 West Virginia 94-89: Baylor +25 both ranked West Virginia lost to #3 Baylor 89-94: West Virginia +18 both ranked Auburn lost to #8 Alabama 58-70: Auburn +6 Alabama -6 South Carolina lost to #12 Arkansas 73-101: South Carolina -14 Arkansas +14 Iowa State lost to #15 Texas 67-81: Iowa State -3 Texas +3 Texas Christian lost to #18 Texas Tech 49-69: Texas Christian -12 Texas Tech +12 Purdue beat #25 Wisconsin 73-69: Purdue +5 both ranked Wisconsin beat #23 Purdue 69-73: Wisconsin -1 both ranked Villanova beat #14 Creighton 72-60: Villanova +24 both ranked Creighton lost to #10 Villanova 60-72: Creighton +4 both ranked Boston College lost to #11 Florida State 64-93: Boston College -14 Florida State +14 UNLV lost to #19 San Diego State 62-71: UNLV -2 San Diego State +2 Michigan State lost to #2 Michigan 50-69: Michigan State +5 Michigan -5 Baylor beat #11 Oklahoma State 81-70: Baylor +26 both ranked Oklahoma State lost to #17 Baylor 70-81: Oklahoma State -2 both ranked Nebraska lost to #5 Iowa 64-102: Nebraska -17 Iowa +17 Texas Christian lost to #6 West Virginia 67-76: Texas Christian +11 West Virginia -11 UTEP lost to #11 Kansas 62-67: UTEP +10 Kansas -10 Texas beat #16 Oklahoma 69-65: Texas +14 both ranked Oklahoma lost to #15 Texas 65-69: Oklahoma +7 both ranked Iowa State lost to #18 Texas Tech 54-81: Iowa State -9 Texas Tech +9 Arizona State lost to #24 Colorado 61-75: Arizona State -12 Colorado +12 Southern Illinois lost to #20 Loyola (Chic) 49-73: Southern Illinois -18 Loyola (Chic) +18 Illinois beat #7 Ohio State 73-68: Illinois +24 both ranked Ohio State lost to #4 Illinois 68-73: Ohio State +17 both ranked Oklahoma State beat #6 West Virginia 85-80: Oklahoma State +25 both ranked West Virginia lost to #17 Oklahoma 80-85: West Virginia +4 both ranked Georgia lost to #8 Alabama 79-89: Georgia +8 Alabama -8 Providence beat #10 Villanova 54-52: Providence +18 Villanova -18 Notre Dame beat #11 Florida State 83-73: Notre Dame +25 Florida State -25 Texas A&M lost to #12 Arkansas 80-87: Texas A&M +7 Arkansas -7 Butler lost to #14 Creighton 73-93: Butler -8 Creighton +8 Indiana State lost to #20 Loyola (Chic) 49-65: Indiana State -10 Loyola (Chic) +10 Louisville lost to #21 Virginia 58-68: Louisville -5 Virginia +5 Indiana lost to #23 Purdue 58-67: Indiana -6 Purdue +6 Baylor beat #18 Texas Tech 88-73: Baylor +23 both ranked Texas Tech lost to #3 Baylor 73-88: Texas Tech +8 both ranked Iowa beat #25 Wisconsin 77-73: Iowa +5 both ranked Wisconsin lost to #5 Iowa 73-77: Wisconsin +17 both ranked Memphis lost to #9 Houston 64-67: Memphis +14 Houston -14 Drake lost to #20 Loyola (Chic) 65-75: Drake -4 Loyola (Chic) +4 Michigan State beat #2 Michigan 70-64: Michigan State +30 Michigan -30 Texas Christian lost to #15 Texas 64-76: Texas Christian -1 Texas +1 After recording these scores, I’m not sure how I feel about the new stat. it gives too much credit for blow-out wins over over-matched opponents. But everyone plays games like that and maybe teams that don’t blow-out over-matched opponents should be debited for that by not getting as much credit. I’m also worried that the points accumulated against unranked teams might be more prolific than the points against ranked teams because that would be more games. What I’ll do is to keep track of them separately and also add them together. That way, if I decide I don’t like the new stat, I can just report the points “against ranked teams”. (Note: I’m late on this report because I was double checking the numbers and found a few mistakes which I’ve corrected.) TOP TEN AGAINST RANKED TEAMS Kansas +197 West Virginia +185 Baylor +182 Oklahoma State +173 Illinois +170 Iowa +170 Michigan +164 Oklahoma +157 Texas +142 Ohio State +140 (All Big 10 and Big 12 teams. Each conference has many ranked teams, especially after favorable results in the early non-conference games and they keep pushing each other’s numbers up by playing each other.) TOP TEN AS A RANKED TEAM AGAINST UNRANKED TEAMS Texas Tech +140 Iowa +70 Houston +62 Rutgers +52 Loyola (Chic) +48 Gonzaga +37 San Diego State +30 Baylor +27 Drake +18 Arkansas +16 (Texas Tech is way ahead in this ranking because they scheduled a lot of bad teams in their non-conference schedule, beating Northwestern Louisiana by 43, Sam Houston State by 32, Troy by 34 and Grambling by 41. That’s the weakness of this addition to the system: I’m trying to see how ranked teams perform against unranked teams but there’ 325 unranked teams and the variation in quality is much greater than that of ranked teams. On the other hand, Villanova is +45 against ranked teams but -155 against unranked teams for a combined -110. I don’t think they are way worse than Texas tech but I think that suggests a team playing to the level of their opposition, which could be a red flag for the post season.) TOP TEN COMBINED Texas Tech +253 Iowa +230 Baylor +209 Kansas +190 Illinois +177 Oklahoma State +158 Ohio State +155 Gonzaga +146 Michigan +136 Texas +119 (Is Texas Tech the best team in the country? Probably not. But they have had a lot of experiences playing ranked teams and have done well and they’d maintained their level of performance against the lesser teams and that also suggests the consistency needed for a good post season run.) Syracuse has played just two teams that were ranked when we played them, Rutgers, who was ranked #21 when we played them. We lost to them by 10 points. Now we’ve beaten #16 Virginia Tech by 18 points and lost to #8 Virginia by 23 points so, under this system, we’ve got +18 points. Here are the points earned in all three categories by ACC teams: TEAM/Vs. Ranked Teams/as Ranked Team vs. unranked teams/Total Boston College -4/ 0/ -4 Clemson -4/ -64/ -68 Duke +36/ +3/ +39 Florida State +65/ -68/ -3 Georgia Tech +112/ 0/ +112 Louisville -12/ -21/ -33 U of Miami +2/ 0/ +2 North Carolina +45/ +8/ +53 North Carolina State +30/ 0/ +30 Notre Dame -1/ 0/ -1 Pittsburgh +29/ 0/ +29 Syracuse +18/ 0/ +18 Virginia +25/ -19/ +6 Virginia Tech +85/ -56/ +29 Wake Forest -65/ 0/ -65 [/QUOTE]

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