An Analysis of How we could possibly get in with a Loss.

[jncuse]

Summary - Obviously we need help. But 4 teams still need to pass us and that is not automatic, when you look at what each team has to accomplish.

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There is no point doing an analysis if we win. Win and we are in. This analysis will focus purely on if we lose, and what the teams behind us have to do.

I am going to use the bracket matrix as the proxy for where the committee views Syracuse if it loses. Currently we are #34 (4th last in). I can certainly see us being 31, 32, 33, but let's assume for now we are #34.

Let's look at all the teams above us. that could incur a result that is worse than losing to Pitt. Is that enough for us to past them? I have bolded the key games

USC ( Lose to UCLA? We Probably stay behind)

St. Joes (Lose to GW - we probably stay behind)

Oregon St (Lose to Arizona St - I'm not high on this team, so this is one team I think we jump if we both lose the first round)

South Carolina (Lose to Georgia -- IMO we couldn't catch them in a both team lose scenario)

Vanderbilt (Lose to Tennessee, this is a bad loss that may put us ahead)

31. Cincinnati (Lose to UConn -- really depends on who the committee thinks is better entering this thing -- us or Cincy)

32. St Bonaventure (Loss to Davidson -- these teams are so close right now, us losing to a tourney team instead push us ahead)

33. VCU (Loss to Rhode Island - same comment as St. Bonaventure)
St. Mary's (If they lose to Gonzaga, this can go either way)
34. Syracuse
35. UConn
36. Wichita St
37. Tulsa

Another food for thought - Lunardi currently has us ahead of Oregon St, which I agree with. If Oregon St beats Arizona St, but then loses to Cal. Does that put them ahead of us. Beating Arizona St is a game that breaks the ranking?

Anyway. let's assume we get one negative result that works in our favour. Se we are now up to #33. So 5 teams need to pass us: Here is the entire list of teams need to do to pass us. 5 have to happen for us to be eliminated if our starting point is #33. (The math is simple -- the teams are close so if are #31 or #32, which is totally fathomable the number goes up by 1. So if the committee has us a spot ot two higher vs the A-10's of the world, then it helps us significantly.

4 of the following to happen. Seems likely, until you start trying to find them. (NOTE - it started at 5, but Monmouth win brought it down to 4)

UConn - Beat Cincy (So we probably want to cheer for Cincy in that 4/5 AAC game)
Wichita St - Does a good loss by Syracuse make them pass us?
Tulsa - Beat Memphis, Beat Houston
Gonzaga / BYU - Win WCC Title, and that only hurts if St. Mary's is ahead of us on the S-Curve with both teams losing.
Michigan - Beat Northwestern, Beat Indiana
Florida - Beat Arkansas, Beat Texas AM
George Washington -- Beat George Mason, Beat St. Joes, Win in Semi's
Temple - Beat East Carolina, Beat UConn or Cincy (may be enough)
Ohio St - Beat Penn St, Beat Michigan St
Florida St - Beat BC, Beat Virginia Tech, Beat Miami
Georgia Tech - Beat Clemson, Beat Virginia (may be enough)
Virginia Tech - Beat Florida St, Beat Miami (probably not enough), Win ACC Semi
Alabama - Beat Ole Miss, Beat Kentucky, Beat South Carolina,
LSU - WIN SEC (Beating Vandy and Texas AM is likely not enoguh)
Houston - WIN AAC
Stanford - Beat Washington, Beat Arizona (probably not enough) win P12 semi
Creighton - Beat Seton Hall, Beat Xavier (and maybe that is enough), if not win BE tourney.

Unknown Bubble Busters
Arkansas Little Rock
Valparaiso (is the resume good enough)
San Diego St

And with Monmouth winning we are down to 4 teams needing to pass us.

But just remember if the committee thinks we are better than St. Bonaventure for example that keeps it at 5.

 

[Ajflood12]

that is a long post...we can make it easy...AND LETS JUST WIN!!

 

[Chris02M]

monmouth lost

 

[bpo57]

So you think SU's prospects are better than Wichita State's right now? Sorry but that's crazy.

I would (happily) fall out of my chair if SU gets in despite losing to Pitt. Not. Gonna. Happen.

 

[jncuse]

that is a long post...we can make it easy...AND LETS JUST WIN!!

I agree. I covered that in my first 8 words. Maybe I should have waited until the Pitt game was over!!

 

[jncuse]

So you think SU's prospects are better than Wichita State's right now? Sorry but that's crazy.

I would (happily) fall out of my chair if SU gets in despite losing to Pitt. Not. Gonna. Happen.

Every year you tell me I am crazy, you make up rules that are not actual rules... and then end up being wrong.

Remember that year you send me a PM bet and were wrong?
Remember the year that UK / Robert Morris year, where you said there was no way the committee would exclude big blue?
Remember the year that no way New Mexico would get a 3 seed?
Remember how I was crazy to exclude SMU from the NCAA tournament in 2014?

I remember this because every year it's the same damn thing, YEAR AFTER YEAR. And it's not like its a different opinion which I can respect. You just make up your own rules and then you insult me.

So that's it. You called me crazy... no more. You are on my ignore list. All you do is cause me frustration. And it's not like any of your posts on the topic add any insight.

 

[jncuse]

monmouth lost

Yep that was covered in line #210 of my post... so we are reasonably down to 4 scenarios.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Yep that was covered in line #210 of my post... so we are reasonably down to 4 scenarios.

You know you really need an avatar. Here is a nice one that I personally selected for you. Since you are a bracketology guru.

 

[bpo57]

Every year you tell me I am crazy, you make up rules that are not actual rules... and then end up being wrong.

Remember that year you send me a PM bet and were wrong?
Remember the year that UK / Robert Morris year, where you said there was no way the committee would exclude big blue?
Remember the year that no way New Mexico would get a 3 seed?
Remember how I was crazy to exclude SMU from the NCAA tournament in 2014?

I remember this because every year it's the same damn thing, YEAR AFTER YEAR. And it's not like its a different opinion which I can respect. You just make up your own rules and then you insult me.

So that's it. You called me crazy... no more. You are on my ignore list. All you do is cause me frustration. And it's not like any of your posts on the topic add any insight.

Lighten up Francis. You take this wayyyy too seriously.

I honestly don't recall making a PM bet with you. Did I pay it and if I didn't how much do I owe you?

Sorry if I insulted you. I just thought your opinion that Wichita State was ahead of SU right now made no sense.

 

[MGP]

Yep that was covered in line #210 of my post... so we are reasonably down to 4 scenarios.

Where does Monmouth fall on the line though? They have got to be somewhere 30-37, correct?

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Where does Monmouth fall on the line though? They have got to be somewhere 30-37, correct?

And Valpo. They lost tonight as well but they are projected. That's two slots taken from us.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Should we be worried about getting in with a win?

 

[bpo57]

Should we be worried about getting in with a win?

Absolutely. Not even remotely near a lock.

 

[jncuse]

Where does Monmouth fall on the line though? They have got to be somewhere 30-37, correct?

I'm assuming Monmouth has now passed us if we lose to Pitt) to bring it down to 4 spots ... but's it is not a bad point and I may be looking at it wrong.

Lunardi has us 2 spots ahead of Monmouth. Does a "good loss" send you down against a static team? If we are better than Monmouth and Wichita St today (and that is speculation), does a loss on a neutral floor to a tourney team drop you below them. I don't know, my guess is if it's close enough then it could.

Obviously a good loss will draw you down over time because there are so many teams playing for a quality win.

 

[bpo57]

Every year we are told that the Committee doesn't pay attention to how many bids each conference is awarded but I'd very surprised if the ACC were to receive eight bids (that would obviously include Pitt and SU). Very unlikely that they're both getting in.

 

[jncuse]

And Valpo. They lost tonight as well but they are projected. That's two slots taken from us.

I hadn't noticed that Valpo had lost yet. They should have been on the list of teams that can steal one, but they are not a pure guarantee to overtake us either.

I am more wary of Monmouth as a bubble buster, so I dropped the opportunities by one for them. So it's now 3 or 4.

 

[jncuse]

Should we be worried about getting in with a win?

I don't think so, but I should not use terms like 100% when the distance is not really huge. Let's say it's 95%+, but leave a little room for strange committee interpretation. In this case if the committee has us "out" as of now.

If we win, every team on my above list has to do at least one win more, and we probably past tesms that are currently ahead of us.

 

[PoppyHart]

Ohio State should not be on the radar. Maybe in the discussion, though.

 

[jncuse]

You know you really need an avatar. Here is a nice one that I personally selected for you. Since you are a bracketology guru.

I am certainly no guru. Anybody who spends too much time on this, like I feel I have, can get a decent handle on it.

One thing I need to work on -- BEING MORE CONCISE!!!

 

[jncuse]

Ohio State should not be on the radar. Maybe in the discussion, though.

I deserved that ...

 

[jncuse]

I still have our chances below 50% with a loss. I would say around 25% (But that is a pure guess)

I am just setting the roadmap to possibly get there.

I think a few things that would really help us
Cincy beating UConn
St. Mary's winning the WCC
P5 staying fairly chalky

 

[jncuse]

I was most interested in trying to set up a reasonable roadmap for the week if we lost. I have my count down to 3 or 4 negative scenarios -- I need to assess Valpo, and if Wichita passes us with a loss.

At this point, I am going to sign off for at least 40 hours on this thread, and on debating this particular scenario of "losing". Did the same thing a day before our recent prior games.

For the next 36 hours it's all about Syracuse winning.

I will still post the games that are happening in the meantime in the bubble watch thread and if it is good or bad on an individual basis. But I will only come back to the "roadmap" if we lose.

BEAT PITT!

 

[pearl31]

Every year we are told that the Committee doesn't pay attention to how many bids each conference is awarded but I'd very surprised if the ACC were to receive eight bids (that would obviously include Pitt and SU). Very unlikely that they're both getting in.

it would be 7 with SU and Pitt (unless you're somehow counting Clemson or Fla St or Va Tech)

 

[bpo57]

it would be 7 with SU and Pitt (unless you're somehow counting Clemson or Fla St or Va Tech)

No you're right. Seven.

 

[Briancuse]

I'm assuming Monmouth has now passed us if we lose to Pitt) to bring it down to 4 spots ... but's it is not a bad point and I may be looking at it wrong.

Lunardi has us 2 spots ahead of Monmouth. Does a "good loss" send you down against a static team? If we are better than Monmouth and Wichita St today (and that is speculation), does a loss on a neutral floor to a tourney team drop you below them. I don't know, my guess is if it's close enough then it could.

Obviously a good loss will draw you down over time because there are so many teams playing for a quality win.

Why us Monmouth a lock?