An interesting theory

[SWC75]

I asked the Axeman why, after three year sin which we have had 31, 25 and 24 takeovers, ("takeaways"), we have only 6 this, none in the last four games, even though we have as many sacks at Alabama and Georgia and 5 defensive backs.

The first point in his response was one that Dino had already made on his show a few weeks back: we lost three NFL players and have a very young secondary, (although after ten games, how inexperienced are they?). Also, we've had some injuries back there and some guys have had to play out of position.

The second point was this: The sacks have prevented us from getting takeovers because they prevent the quarterback from getting off a "desperation pass". I've always equated sacks with getting more takeovers, not less. Yes, the quarterback isn't getting the pass off but there have to be many other plays where he does get it off under duress and that produces the turnover. Certainly a lack of pressure doesn't produce more turnovers. And there's such a thing as a strip-sack, (ask Malik Willis).

Naturally I had to look it up.

Here is the NCAA rankings of the FBS teams for "team sacks": NCAA College Football FBS current team Stats | NCAA.com
Here is the NCAA rankings of the FBS teams for "turnovers gained": NCAA College Football FBS current team Stats | NCAA.com

Here are the 12 teams with at least 34 sacks:

Marshall 37 sacks 16 takeovers; Oklahoma State 37-12; Pittsburgh 36-15; Troy 39-19; Alabama 34-16; Buffalo 34-10; Georgia 34-15; Houston 34-20; Nevada-Reno 34-18; Ohio State 34-17; Mississippi 34-18; Syracuse 34-5 (Actually Cuse.com has them with 6: 3 fumble recoveries and 3 interceptions for 5. I checked the ESPN box scores and they have the same. That would mean that instead of being tied for 129th and last in a 130 team division we tied for 127th.)

Here are the 13 teams with at least 20 takeovers:

Cincinnati 24-25; Middle Tennessee State 22-25; Hawaii 21-24; Iowa 20-23; South Alabama 24-22; South Carolina 21-22; Washington State 17-22; Western Kentucky 25-22; Wake Forest 29-21; Boise State 23-20; Fresno State 26-20; Houston 34-20; Kent State 10-20.

There are some outliers there but nothing like us. I don't see a trend that sacks somehow prevent turnovers.

 

[jgeorge322]

Fascinating. I was wondering this myself. We’ve had hardly any turnovers. Thank you.

 

[PhatOrange]

My theory more time tackling less time trying to strip the ball. It’s apparent watching our guys tackle. And maybe why we’re a better tackling team now than we were the last couple years. There’s nothing I hate more than watching players try to strip the ball while the ball carrier gets three or four more yards.

 

[DomeStranger]

I think a lot of our turnovers in 19 and 20 were because they were so bad that QB's often took chances because they were up big with little chance of losing control of the game so they could afford to throw that ill-advised pass. This year with closer games, they haven't been over confident and less willing to risk a turnover.

Obviously there is more to it, but I think this is/was a factor.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Those 3 NFL players combined for 3 INTs last season. Deuce has 2 this season.

If a QB is sacked you can't have an INT but you can have a fumble. It should even out.