another punting nerd stat vlookup thread (SU 2012 numbers)

[Millhouse]

truth in advertising in the subject line for those not interested.

CFB stats has play by play data. I matched that data for SU up with a table that someone posted a couple days ago from a stats blog (I forget who posted, I'm sorry, but thank you)

http://blog.minitab.com/blog/the-st...n-4th-down-do-the-statistics-say-its-a-gamble

I used the middle column for the average punter.

53 punts this year from the data. There might be 3 missing, I don't know why.

According to the table of what to do statistically (which I'm sure 90% of the board disagrees with), SU should've only punted 14 of those. One of them was against UConn up big, good sportsmanship.

28% of his punts should've happened.

Overall, every team every game, 31% of punts should've happened.

So even if you think the table of when to go for it is crazy, this still shows that he's more conservative than other coaches who clearly disagree with that table.

If we could somehow get a coach in here that bucked that trend, it's unbelievable low hanging fruit.

Maybe we wouldn't need 500 yards to score 30 points if they kept the ball and scored after more 60 yard drives

I don't know where to attach it and it's a mess to follow but I am pretty sure the numbers are right

 

[CuseIsInTheHouse]

I watched this weekend's football games differently now since I read that article. Good work.

 

[upperdeck]

so what we are saying is that SU should here 10 grad students to be the coaches and bank the money for new facilities.. the grad kids should be plenty smart to use these numbers to run the team during the games.. Im cool with that if the price of dome dogs goes down $1

 

[Millhouse]

so what we are saying is that SU should here 10 grad students to be the coaches and bank the money for new facilities.. the grad kids should be plenty smart to use these numbers to run the team during the games.. Im cool with that if the price of dome dogs goes down $1

my dream is for a big dumb knucklehead who can teach players how to kill people that has enough humility to defer to simple charts that nerds print out for him

 

[orangenirvana]

It's not just about punts. It's also knowing when not to attempt field goals. (HINT: When it's 4th and 3 at the opponent's 25 and you're down by > 7 points in the 4th quarter on the road and it's raining and you're kicker isn't very good and your offense is - DON'T).

*kicks horse carcass*

 

[Millhouse]

oops. i thought it was wrong, but it's actually right.

 

[Millhouse]

It's not just about punts. It's also knowing when not to attempt field goals. (HINT: When it's 4th and 3 at the opponent's 25 and you're down by > 7 points in the 4th quarter on the road and it's raining and you're kicker isn't very good and your offense is - DON'T).

*kicks horse carcass*

yeah, that one was brutal. I couldn't watch that game thankfully. I remember the stretch run even better, I missed RU and Cincy games.

it's not BC in 99 (?) but it's pretty horrible.

 

[Millhouse]

in 2011, he made the right choice 33% of the time. rest of CFB made the right choice 32% of the time