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[QUOTE="Millhouse, post: 478087, member: 78"]
truth in advertising in the subject line for those not interested.
 
CFB stats has play by play data. I matched that data for SU up with a table that someone posted a couple days ago from a stats blog (I forget who posted, I'm sorry, but thank you)
 
[url]http://blog.minitab.com/blog/the-statistics-game/going-for-it-on-4th-down-do-the-statistics-say-its-a-gamble[/url]
 
I used the middle column for the average punter.
 
53 punts this year from the data. There might be 3 missing, I don't know why.
 
According to the table of what to do statistically (which I'm sure 90% of the board disagrees with), SU should've only punted 14 of those. One of them was against UConn up big, good sportsmanship.
 
28% of his punts should've happened.
 
Overall, every team every game, 31% of punts should've happened.
 
So even if you think the table of when to go for it is crazy, this still shows that he's more conservative than other coaches who clearly disagree with that table.
 
If we could somehow get a coach in here that bucked that trend, it's unbelievable low hanging fruit.
 
Maybe we wouldn't need 500 yards to score 30 points if they kept the ball and scored after more 60 yard drives
 
I don't know where to attach it and it's a mess to follow but I am pretty sure the numbers are right
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