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[QUOTE="Crusty, post: 819296, member: 2265"]
OK, I buy that. Inexperience is certainly a factor in all these things.

There are several coaching decisions that seem like toss ups but in reality should be based on better criteria. 2 point conversions is the classic. The real issue is the probability of conversion both passing or rushing for your team. The probability of a one point conversion is less than 100% - 98% in the NFL, so, a 2 point conversion probability of something less than 50% is break even. Add to that injuries, replacement kicker, weather, etc. and going for 2 every time becomes a better decision. I am just saying that the conservative, conventional decision, especially in college football, may be the wrong one for many teams, even early in the game.

Fourth and short is a bit more complicated but I think the conservative decision is not always the correct approach either because it is usually based on field position instead of probability of success.

In the same vein, TO's is another one of those knee-jerk reaction decisions and I am not so sure it is always all that well thought out.

BTW I am referring to all coaches and am not calling out Shafer. If I am him, I trust my D and not the O and every decision I make has that at top of mind.
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