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Message: [QUOTE="Hoo's That, post: 1911668, member: 3609"] What I see happening is the eventual adoption of the Jay Bilas formula. P-5 football and basketball will be for the NFL and NBA minor leagues closer to the system used in baseball. The fig leaf we have now will be gone. Players will be paid and will not have to go to class. Schools will have to be all-in; no one will be allowed to follow the formula for one sport but not the other. Now, the messy part comes in. There will be a goodly number of present P-5 schools who will opt out of the P-5 under those conditions, either because they honestly feel that system would not be in line with the true purpose of a university, they can't afford it, or some combination of both. Duke will have to make a choice and I think they will not adopt the formula. I think once the Vicious Little Ferret, Coach Kourageous, retires, Duke will be out of the OAD business. That's not to say that no one will be allowed to leave Duke early; they just won't recruit the players that have OAD "written all over them". They will require their players to go to class, especially if they still can go to North Carolina Central across town for a bunch of them. The Pre-Father Hesburgh ND would have done whatever it took to stay competitive with the P-5 since it was a football team that also had a university. The Post-Father Hesburgh ND will drop to whatever level that requires players in all sports to class. Even the hardest of the hard core supporters of the Bilas formula on the hard core ND board acknowledge that their administration would drop down levels. ND won't be alone. A lot of private schools will follow suit and a significant number of public schools will as well, either because the academicians take full control back from the athletic departments or their state governments will not allow them adopt the formula. The Ivy League is D-3's financial aid rules being used in D-1. There'll be a lot more of that. I'm sure a lot of cynics will label me a Pollyanna, but the academicians want sports to return to being the "front porch" of a school (if that) and not its identity. Demographics are also adverse. Not as big a percentage of Millennials care about team sports as previous generations did. And not caring means less money. Right now, there are more female college students at major universities than male students. How many of those future Sugar Mommas will be willing to give to the athletic department as a whole, let alone to football? Football is going to have to change because of the health issues or face losing a significant chunk of potential players as affluent and recent immigrant parents refuse to allow their children to participate or have their children play soccer. While other sports can have players get concussions, they don't have the constant head contact that is seen in the lineplay of football. [/QUOTE]

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