SWC75
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Here's the plan: next year we get back to being average, which would be seen as an improvement after this season. Shafer keeps his job and the good recruiting then comes through and in 2016 we have our "breakthrough year" which in this conference will not be an undefeated season but would be a year that gets us back into the Top 25 and hopefully we can stay there for a while. What would that look like, statistically?
There are 125 FBS schools. You can look at their numbers in every category here:
http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/695
Let's say the 62nd ranked team in every category is "average. I looked at four major categories on each side of the ball:
Points- offense: 29.3, defense 26.2
Yards- 402-394
Rushing- 165-161
Passing 231-225
So to beat an average team giving an average performance, you have to score 30 points. That's now not a goal but a minimum standard. So is gaining 400 yards total offense.We gained 589 yards against Maryland and didn't come close to winning. Also the average team gains- and surrenders 58% of it's yards through the air.
Compare that to this year for Syracuse:
Points- 17-24
Yards- 329-349
Rushing- 145-139
Passing- 184-210
Actually, our passing yards percentage is close to the same, 56%. Our opposition got 60% of it's yards passing. So maybe we aren't quite as old -fashioned as we thought. But 329 yards and 17 points a game isn't going to win many games, (and we were less than that at the end- after the bye that was supposed to help us. We did a decent job of holding the other teams down with our defense but it wasn't nearly enough.
Let's take a look at the 25th ranked team in each category:
Points- 36-21
Yards- 464-345
Rushing- 225-127
Pass- 280-196
The passing percentages are about the same: 55% and 61%, (of course these are not the percentages for one team was ranked #25 in the polls- it's the 25th ranked team in each category- I'm not sure that matters). Defensively, their numbers are similar to Syracuse's but those numbers were helped by a hugely productive offense that kept the defense off the field and had them in good position on the field and on the scoreboard, none of which we did for our defense this year. But 464 yards and 36 points per game have to be our goals if we we want to be a Top 25 team again someday.
That's a 22% increase yards and a 71% increase in points to become average and a 41% increase in yards and a 112% in points to become really good.
There are 125 FBS schools. You can look at their numbers in every category here:
http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/695
Let's say the 62nd ranked team in every category is "average. I looked at four major categories on each side of the ball:
Points- offense: 29.3, defense 26.2
Yards- 402-394
Rushing- 165-161
Passing 231-225
So to beat an average team giving an average performance, you have to score 30 points. That's now not a goal but a minimum standard. So is gaining 400 yards total offense.We gained 589 yards against Maryland and didn't come close to winning. Also the average team gains- and surrenders 58% of it's yards through the air.
Compare that to this year for Syracuse:
Points- 17-24
Yards- 329-349
Rushing- 145-139
Passing- 184-210
Actually, our passing yards percentage is close to the same, 56%. Our opposition got 60% of it's yards passing. So maybe we aren't quite as old -fashioned as we thought. But 329 yards and 17 points a game isn't going to win many games, (and we were less than that at the end- after the bye that was supposed to help us. We did a decent job of holding the other teams down with our defense but it wasn't nearly enough.
Let's take a look at the 25th ranked team in each category:
Points- 36-21
Yards- 464-345
Rushing- 225-127
Pass- 280-196
The passing percentages are about the same: 55% and 61%, (of course these are not the percentages for one team was ranked #25 in the polls- it's the 25th ranked team in each category- I'm not sure that matters). Defensively, their numbers are similar to Syracuse's but those numbers were helped by a hugely productive offense that kept the defense off the field and had them in good position on the field and on the scoreboard, none of which we did for our defense this year. But 464 yards and 36 points per game have to be our goals if we we want to be a Top 25 team again someday.
That's a 22% increase yards and a 71% increase in points to become average and a 41% increase in yards and a 112% in points to become really good.
