average of defensive yards per pass rank and yards per rush rank

[Millhouse]

If you rank each team on yards per pass defense, then rank them on yards per pass offense, then average those ranks, then rank that average, our defense is 53rd in the country

aka If each defense faced a 50/50 passing running opposition, how would their defenses look. if you have a good offense, the other team might throw more and passing attempts have more yards than rushing attempts

Our defense is good in yards per game because teams choose to run on us so much even though we're very good against the run. I think the reason for that is teams are always ahead against our terrible offense and don't want to take any chances.

i think defense first coaches get fooled into thinking that bad offenses are tolerable because of this

 

[TheCusian]

If you rank each team on yards per pass defense, then rank them on yards per pass offense, then average those ranks, then rank that average, our defense is 53rd in the country aka If each defense faced a 50/50 passing running opposition, how would their defenses look. if you have a good offense, the other team might throw more and passing attempts have more yards than rushing attempts Our defense is good in yards per game because teams choose to run on us so much even though we're very good against the run. I think the reason for that is teams are always ahead against our terrible offense and don't want to take any chances. i think defense first coaches get fooled into thinking that bad offenses are tolerable because of this

1. There is only one scenario where a team will run consistently on a team that is as good against the run as us. When the are winning vs a bad offense.

2. I don't think defensive first coaches are playing to be down.

3. Our whole defensive philosophy revolves around stopping the run and forcing teams into obvious passing situations. A good offense helps this.

4. In years past we see just this effect. NC state and Minny games two years ago, UCONN 3 years, etc. Can't run, playing from behind - giant hits on the QB, sacks, etc.

5. A good defense is aided way more by a good offense than a bad one.

 

[NineOneSeven]

If you rank each team on yards per pass defense, then rank them on yards per pass offense, then average those ranks, then rank that average

 

[NineOneSeven]

millhouse, start posting excel and minitab plots on the board.

seriously doe.

 

[Millhouse]

1. There is only one scenario where a team will run consistently on a team that is as good against the run as us. When the are winning vs a bad offense.

2. I don't think defensive first coaches are playing to be down.

3. Our whole defensive philosophy revolves around stopping the run and forcing teams into obvious passing situations. A good offense helps this.

4. In years past we see just this effect. NC state and Minny games two years ago, UCONN 3 years, etc. Can't run, playing from behind - giant hits on the QB, sacks, etc.

5. A good defense is aided way more by a good offense than a bad one.

i agree that our run defense is strong

i didn't say d coaches play to be down. i said they get fooled into thinking bad offenses are tolerable. everyone wants to be great on both sides, ideally

if our d philosophy is to put teams in obvious passing downs, we should be concerned because we aren't doing that well in yards per attempt defense or in passer rating defense (104th)

we are really bad on 1st down pass defense. 97th in rating. we are 122nd in passer rating defense on 2nd down

the problem with that defensive philosophy is that first down and second downs are passing downs now.

we sell out to stop the run, teams get a lead passing on first and second, then sit on the lead and we delude ourselves into thinking the defense is good

 

[Millhouse]

millhouse, start posting excel and minitab plots on the board.

seriously doe.

 

[NineOneSeven]

No labeled axes?

 

[Millhouse]

No labeled axes?

no but i picked the numbers just for you

 

[NineOneSeven]

no but i picked the numbers just for you

Your boy Shafer thinks that is #hardnosed

 

[TheCusian]

i agree that our run defense is strong i didn't say d coaches play to be down. i said they get fooled into thinking bad offenses are tolerable. everyone wants to be great on both sides, ideally if our d philosophy is to put teams in obvious passing downs, we should be concerned because we aren't doing that well in yards per attempt defense or in passer rating defense (104th) we are really bad on 1st down pass defense. 97th in rating. we are 122nd in passer rating defense on 2nd down the problem with that defensive philosophy is that first down and second downs are passing downs now. we sell out to stop the run, teams get a lead passing on first and second, then sit on the lead and we delude ourselves into thinking the defense is good

I love that you think coaches are silly enough to be fooled by that. Like they are unaware of time and score. Being defensive minded does influence punt decisions - but what you're suggesting is asinine.

 

[Millhouse]

I love that you think coaches are silly enough to be fooled by that. Like they are unaware of time and score. Being defensive minded does influence punt decisions - but what you're suggesting is asinine.

you're silly enough

 

[TheCusian]

you're silly enough

You should send them an email. I think they are unaware of being mediocre on defense. They are under the illusion that they are doing a good job. They probably missed the correlation between offense and defense!!! They need the great Millhouse to illuminate the holes in their defensive scheme or they might go on believing they are in the top third in defense for another 6-7 years.

And all this while actually trying to stop the run and force the offense into obvious passing downs! It just doesn't work - or it gives you the appearance of working. They're going to be very disappointed in this email - but you are doing the heavy lifting for them. They should be grateful.

 

[Millhouse]

in case anyone cares about prior years

2014 53rd
2013 44th
2012 71st
2011 60th
2010 13th
2009 64th

Defense is just ok and it's because we give up a very big yards per pass attempt most years

Which would be fine if we got a lot of turnovers but we don't. middle of the pack

 

[Millhouse]

You should send them an email. I think they are unaware of being mediocre on defense. They are under the illusion that they are doing a good job. They probably missed the correlation between offense and defense!!! They need the great Millhouse to illuminate the holes in their defensive scheme or they might go on believing they are in the top third in defense for another 6-7 years.

And all this while actually trying to stop the run and force the offense into obvious passing downs! It just doesn't work - or it gives you the appearance of working. They're going to be very disappointed in this email - but you are doing the heavy lifting for them. They should be grateful.

they don't know this and it would help them if they did

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Like they are unaware of time and score.

I think they're aware. I don't think that awareness influences their decisions the way it should.

 

[TheCusian]

In all honesty the biggest issue with your ranking of averages is that it makes too many assumptions about the offensive side of things. Any team that passes better than it runs or vice versa screws with your numbers. You can't assume a team would have the same output if it was 50/50 run pass. Some might be better served by a more even distribution, but I'm guessing most would not. Moves it from any kind of useful data to compromised pretty quickly.

 

[Millhouse]

In all honesty the biggest issue with your ranking of averages is that it makes too many assumptions about the offensive side of things. Any team that passes better than it runs or vice versa screws with your numbers. You can't assume a team would have the same output if it was 50/50 run pass. Some might be better served by a more even distribution, but I'm guessing most would not. Moves it from any kind of useful data to compromised pretty quickly.

no matter what you look at there will be assumptions

just looking at yards assumes that runs and passes average the same yards. i think that's a worse assumption than assuming that the yards per pass and rush will stay the same when the mix changes

think of this as how good are we at defending a run play and a pass play and how do we compare

 

[TheCusian]

no matter what you look at there will be assumptions

just looking at yards assumes that runs and passes average the same yards. i think that's a worse assumption than assuming that the yards per pass and rush will stay the same when the mix changes

think of this as how good are we at defending a run play and a pass play and how do we compare

Little off topic - but don't you think that running is more statistically reliable then passing? That while you average more yards per pass, but that there is a lower % of success in most college offenses (and a higher % of things that could go wrong)? That the reason for Baylor, TCU, etc. passing success is that they are more efficient passing down the field than the average?

Honest question. No ill will or snark.

 

[Millhouse]

Little off topic - but don't you think that running is more statistically reliable then passing? That while you average more yards per pass, but that there is a lower % of success in most college offenses (and a higher % of things that could go wrong)? That the reason for Baylor, TCU, etc. passing success is that they are more efficient passing down the field than the average? Honest question. No ill will or snark.

A yard on the ground is better than one in the air but I don't know how much better

Leach has gone crazy throwing now that everyone is spread just to be different , that's not the leach I wanted here. I want to run and throw, it's just a matter of how