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Message: [QUOTE="nzm136, post: 2627412, member: 2531"] 1. That's entirely not true. A more efficient offense is good. "More chances" is irrelevant, unless you're trying to diminish the role of random chance (which we don't want to do against good teams). 2. Once again, your more chances to score argument ignores the reality of also creating more changes to get scored on / fall behind. And you said "the system places pressure on teams to keep up," which I took as meaning from a point perspective ("track meet games"), which isn't true. However, I'll grant you that the tempo does stress the other team's defense and cause confusion (you didn't mention confusion, but I'll give you that for free). But unless the offense can string together long drives, it stresses your own defense more. Defenses get tired faster than offenses, so quick in and out offenses force *their* defenses to stay on the field for longer times, thereby tiring them out. Additionally, your comment about our two big wins coming from games where we had the lead most of the game is like saying "the team that is winning most of the game is more likely to be the team that ends up winning the game." Isn't that kind of obvious? And that has nothing to do with pace. That's just a statistical truth, which is equally applicable to "3 yards and a cloud of dust" offenses. 3. "MTSU is the only upset Dino has allowed. It wasn’t due to taking unnecessary risk." MTSU wasn't Dino's only upset. It was probably his only big upset - I can't remember. And clearly the loss was driven by risk. He lost and not every play that we ran/gamble that we took worked. Also, though potentially not upsets (I cant remember who was favored), our implosion against Wake last year (and I believe the year before), and our dismantling against BC also spring to mind. 4. "Hard to evaluate the theory when your effeciency drops off a cliff with our backups playing." No it's not. My theory is that efficiency matters, and that tempo is a lever. When we're more efficient, we win by more with a high tempo. When we're less efficient, we get blown out by more. 5. The system isn't designed to consistently win with less talent. Risk taking creates high betas, and high tempos advantage the more talented team. That isn't opinion. It's a mathematical fact that can be seen in many other areas outside of football if you don't believe me (see below). What the system is designed to do is win with more talent and create highlights for players (see all of the offensive skill position players who have video game stats in Dino's first 2 years), and those highlights attract talented players. The following is opinion, but I don't think that many people (anyone here) will argue with me when I say that Dino is very charismatic, and players are FAR more likely to play for a charismatic coach. So, if Dino does well here (which I think he will), it's because he was able to pull in the talent needed to win with the system, and it's because he didn't make any bone-headed decisions to blow games. That's on him, not his system. Plays #'s favoring the more talented team - Flip a coin 2x. And do it a bunch of times. The odds of you getting all heads is 25%, on head is 50%, and no heads is 25%. Then flip a coin 50x a bunch of times. The odds of you getting all heads is very close to 0%. Using that exact same concept, the odds of us getting lucky on a few plays vs. a good team are MUCH higher than the odds of us getting lucky on a bunch of plays against the same team. Ironically, this concept is one of the reasons why nobody teams try to slow down the pace against us in basketball. Risk creating more extreme outcomes - Look at small cap tech stocks compared to blue chips. Small caps have a MUCH higher return, but they're also MUCH more likely to go under. You are far more likely to either win big or lose your shirt by gambling than you are to by keeping money under a mattress. The same is true for football. You're more likely to get big breaks when you gamble, but you're also more likely to give up big breaks. [/QUOTE]

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