Bad year to be a bubble team

[nnyorange]

Utah St. stole a bid last night. There’s no doubt in my mind that UConn, Washington, and even UNC could do the same. That’s not even mentioning the inevitable upsets that always seem to happen in some of the other conference tournaments. Should be an interesting week

 

[Marty McFly]

as Syracuse is no where near the bubble, I will be rooting like hell for chaos.

 

[jdubs30]

Utah St. stole a bid last night. There’s no doubt in my mind that UConn, Washington, and even UNC could do the same. That’s not even mentioning the inevitable upsets that always seem to happen in some of the other conference tournaments. Should be an interesting week

AAC is interesting it really could be a swing conference. Houston is a lock but by next week it’s possible Houston , Wichita, Cincinnati and one of UConn/Tulsa could all be in

 

[Cuseball]

AAC is interesting it really could be a swing conference. Houston is a lock but by next week it’s possible Houston , Wichita, Cincinnati and one of UConn/Tulsa could all be in

Yep Houston is good, rest of conference is mediocre. Uconn only in with auto bid. Tulsa, maybe with championship game loss if they get some decent wins. Memphis perhaps same. When we win ACC that probably ruins Cincys chances without auto.

Cuse!

 

[jncuse]

Utah St. stole a bid last night. There’s no doubt in my mind that UConn, Washington, and even UNC could do the same. That’s not even mentioning the inevitable upsets that always seem to happen in some of the other conference tournaments. Should be an interesting week

I can't agree fully agree with your assessment in the thread title. This year's risk of bubble busters in the last week is a bit below average than prior years. I think you are overstating the risk of bubble busters from power conferences where the risk is always below that line.

There is really only 3 things to watch this week if you are a bubble team.
1) The A-10 Tourney as usual, but since Dayton is so good the risk is a bit lower this year Hope Dayton wins. If not Richmond as they may also possibly in. The big dangers are VCU, Rhode Island, St Louis.,

2) The AAC Tourney as usual. Hope Houston wins, if not Wichita St or Cincy as they are both straddling the line.. one of those three wins, you probably end up in the same scenario of 2 teams getting, although 3 is a risk. So while Wichita St and Cincy are problems, the real crap disturbers would be UConn, Tulsa and Memphis.

3) East Tennessee St is the only low mid major with a shot at an-large that is playing this week, and they are not a guaranteed at large.

Other points:
The MWC and WCC are often risks, but arguably Utah St may have already been in. The WCC is no risk this year (Gonzaga, BYU, or St Mary's one of them is about 99% certain of winning0

P5+BE conferences are always no or micro risk. A little higher this year because of UNC, but still a very small risk. (Less than 10%)

Northern Iowa is hanging around watching if they can get an at-large after losing the MVC tournament but general consensus is they are not getting in.

 

[nnyorange]

I can't agree with your assessment in the thread title. This year's risk of bubble busters in the last week is a bit below average.

There is really only 3 things to watch this week if you are a bubble team.
1) The A-10 Tourney as usual, but since Dayton is so good the risk is a bit lower Hope Dayton wins. If not Richmond as they may also possibly in. The big dangers are VCU, Rhode Island, St Louis.,

2) The AAC Tourney as usual. Hope Houston wins, if not Wichita St or Cincy as they are both straddling the line.. one of those three wins, you probably end up in the same scenario of 2 teams getting, although 3 is a risk. So while Wichita St and Cincy are problems, the real disturbers would be UConn, Tulsa and Memphis.

3) East Tennessee St is the only low mid major with a shot at an-large that is playing this week, and they are not a guaranteed at large.

Other points:
The MWC and WCC are often risks, but arguably Utah St may have already been in. The WCC is no risk this year (Gonzaga, BYU, or St Mary's one of them is about 99% certain of winning0

P5+BE conferences are always no or micro risk. A little higher this year because of UNC, but still a very small risk. (Less than 10%)

Northern Iowa is hanging around watching if they can get an at-large after losing the MVC tournament but general consensus is they are not getting in.

Good assessment. I guess in my mind I was thinking it’s a bad year to be a bubble team only if utter chaos breaks out i.e. UNC, UConn, Washington etc. all breaking through to steal bids but the chances of that happening are miniscule

 

[jncuse]

Good assessment. I guess in my mind I was thinking it’s a bad year to be a bubble team only if utter chaos breaks out i.e. UNC, UConn, Washington etc. all breaking through to steal bids but the chances of that happening are miniscule

Now that I think about it I also made a very big error in my assessment.
- While there is less things to watch for this year, it's still ultimately the total number of bids that are actually stolen.

While there may have been more to "Duck" in prior years, doesn't mean this year will have any less bids that are ultimately stolen. If ends up being 3, which is plausable, the end result would be high.

And even If Utah St may have got in as an at-large, the fact that they are now locked, tightens up the vice for teams on that line.