Bailey by Q and half

[kingottoiii]

1Q 49-166 3.39
2Q 41-198 4.83
3Q 47-212 4.51
4Q 48-245 5.10

1H 90-364 4.04
2H 95-457 4.81

All I have to say is wow to the 1st Q. Maybe the real issue with our slow starts is the OL. IMO a CFB RB should be around 5 ypc. In Qs 2-4 Bailey is fine. But that 1st Q is totally unacceptable. That is mind blowingly bad. Inetresting to see the balance for carries per Q. Also interesting is the 4th Q. It is Bailey's 2nd highest carries per Q and it is by far Nassib's highest Q for attempts. That tells me we get a lot more plays in the 4th Q. Both Bailey and Nassib are arguably the best in the 4th Q. Now if we can only start a game like that.

 

[javadoc]

1Q 49-166 3.39
2Q 41-198 4.83
3Q 47-212 4.51
4Q 48-245 5.10

10 games so far, so that means 4.9 carries per game in the first quarter. If one of your 5 carries is a known first-play-of-the-game-up-the-middle and the defense is waiting for it, and snuffs it, that will drag the average down. I would love to see his numbers broken down by first possession and then everything else.

How about a gosh dang flea-flicker against Cincy.

 

[Millhouse]

1Q 49-166 3.39
2Q 41-198 4.83
3Q 47-212 4.51
4Q 48-245 5.10

1H 90-364 4.04
2H 95-457 4.81

All I have to say is wow to the 1st Q. Maybe the real issue with our slow starts is the OL. IMO a CFB RB should be around 5 ypc. In Qs 2-4 Bailey is fine. But that 1st Q is totally unacceptable. That is mind blowingly bad. Inetresting to see the balance for carries per Q. Also interesting is the 4th Q. It is Bailey's 2nd highest carries per Q and it is by far Nassib's highest Q for attempts. That tells me we get a lot more plays in the 4th Q. Both Bailey and Nassib are arguably the best in the 4th Q. Now if we can only start a game like that.

marrone's 2 goals of jumping out to a lead and wearing them out are in conflict with each other. the improvement over quarters makes him think that we're good at wearing teams down but most of the improvement just comes from starting out so bad.

these are good posts, thanks

 

[jkm54]

How about a gosh dang flea-flicker against Cincy.

How about first play a gosh dang flea-flicker against Cincy?

Great analysis, koiii. Thanks for taking the time.

 

[BlackKnight76]

Good stuff KO.

I'd love us to play the 1Qs the way we've been playing the 4Qs.

 

[ImperialOrange]

We haven't broken any big runs in the 1st quarter. Anyone know how many 20+ yard runs Bailey has this year? The 53 yarder vs Wake was because the defense was spent.

 

[kingottoiii]

We haven't broken any big runs in the 1st quarter. Anyone know how many 20+ yard runs Bailey has this year? The 53 yarder vs Wake was because the defense was spent.

The 53 yarder was because the D was in a blitz and we got Bailey to the outside.

 

[ImperialOrange]

The 53 yarder was because the D was in a blitz and we got Bailey to the outside.

Right but there were a ton of guys there that could've made the play but had no legs left.

 

[CIL]

1Q 49-166 3.39
2Q 41-198 4.83
3Q 47-212 4.51
4Q 48-245 5.10

1H 90-364 4.04
2H 95-457 4.81

All I have to say is wow to the 1st Q. Maybe the real issue with our slow starts is the OL. IMO a CFB RB should be around 5 ypc. In Qs 2-4 Bailey is fine. But that 1st Q is totally unacceptable. That is mind blowingly bad. Inetresting to see the balance for carries per Q. Also interesting is the 4th Q. It is Bailey's 2nd highest carries per Q and it is by far Nassib's highest Q for attempts. That tells me we get a lot more plays in the 4th Q. Both Bailey and Nassib are arguably the best in the 4th Q. Now if we can only start a game like that.

Shouldn't you be working? Know I know why firms are restricting Internet access.

Thanks for the info though.

 

[ljmilman]

I mean, you expect YPC to increase as the game goes along, especially with a running offense (which Hackett/Marrone/Whoever still think we are despite it being ineffective). But, I would think you would run a few less running plays early on and a few more later on if that's your plan. Obviously it's tougher to run late when we're trailing, but...

 

[Millhouse]

Shouldn't you be working? Know I know why firms are restricting Internet access.

Thanks for the info though.

look at me sticking up for ko.. cfbstats has it all broken down http://www.cfbstats.com/2011/player/688/1018429/rushing/situational.html

looks like we're especially easy to stuff inside our own 20 yard line

running game is pretty good between the 20s

 

[kingottoiii]

look at me sticking up for ko.. cfbstats has it all broken down http://www.cfbstats.com/2011/player/688/1018429/rushing/situational.html

looks like we're especially easy to stuff inside our own 10 yard line

running game is pretty good between the 20s

I was dumb and did it the old fashioned way. At least next time I will have that site, thanks. But another interesting stat is field position rushing.

From our own 1-20 Bailey gets 2.3 ypc
21-39 4.8
40-40 5.7
39-21 5.5
20-1 3.3

So it appears the biggest issue is when we are inside our own 20, which seems to happen a lot this year. Since Nassib doesn't throw many INTs, maybe we should start throwing it more when we are backed up? The funny thing is his comp % is by far the highest when we are inside our own 20 at 76.9%. Or at least use 3 WR sets and create room for Bailey. Last year it wasn't an issue with DC3 and Bart. Inside our own 20, DC3 had his highest ypc at 6.35 which is the opposite of this year.

 

[Scooch]

Man, I love data! Great stuff.

What's tough to know (I imagine) is how these quarterly performances stack-up vs. other RBs. Even tougher to control for 4Qs where teams are just trying to pound the ball to kill clock because they have big leads.

But without that as context it does suggest to me that there isn't as much benefit to "setting them up" as coaches tend to preach. Do we really think that our better YPC in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarter is because we've "worn down" the opposing DL... or is it because by that point we're throwing more?!

 

[Millhouse]

Man, I love data! Great stuff.

What's tough to know (I imagine) is how these quarterly performances stack-up vs. other RBs. Even tougher to control for 4Qs where teams are just trying to pound the ball to kill clock because they have big leads.

But without that as context it does suggest to me that there isn't as much benefit to "setting them up" as coaches tend to preach. Do we really think that our better YPC in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarter is because we've "worn down" the opposing DL... or is it because by that point we're throwing more?!

i can buy the wear them down argument - i think it's more about the offensive line and less about the running back.

the best games every year are games where our offensive lineman pummel teams in the 4th quarter. rutgers in 09, k state last year, wvu this year

those are the games marrone is cherry picking - aha this is what we're capable of! plus with marrone being a lineman, he's favorable to that approach in teh first place

 

[Millhouse]

I was dumb and did it the old fashioned way. At least next time I will have that site, thanks. But another interesting stat is field position rushing.

From our own 1-20 Bailey gets 2.3 ypc
21-39 4.8
40-40 5.7
39-21 5.5
20-1 3.3

So it appears the biggest issue is when we are inside our own 20, which seems to happen a lot this year. Since Nassib doesn't throw many INTs, maybe we should start throwing it more when we are backed up? The funny thing is his comp % is by far the highest when we are inside our own 20 at 76.9%. Or at least use 3 WR sets and create room for Bailey. Last year it wasn't an issue with DC3 and Bart. Inside our own 20, DC3 had his highest ypc at 6.35 which is the opposite of this year.

or take our shots downfield... if we're scared to throw downfield, might as well do it then when an int isn't so bad considering that we'd just shank a punt anyway. incompletions aren't so bad because we can't run the ball anyway

 

[IthacaBarrel]

or take our shots downfield... if we're scared to throw downfield, might as well do it then when an int isn't so bad considering that we'd just shank a punt anyway. incompletions aren't so bad because we can't run the ball anyway

agree and the punting has been god awful this year.

 

[Millhouse]

agree and the punting has been god awful this year.

i hope fisher doesn't have the yips permanently. playing for a horrendous oakfield HS team where nothing matters isn't exactly a pressure cooker that prepares you for this

 

[Chip]

or take our shots downfield... if we're scared to throw downfield, might as well do it then when an int isn't so bad considering that we'd just shank a punt anyway. incompletions aren't so bad because we can't run the ball anyway

To me that's the most frustrating part of all of Nassib's overthrows. As if he's thinking (or was coached to think) whatever you do on this bomb, don't throw an INT. INT has a good chance of being better than the punt, at least as good as. A throw that could lead to an INT also has a better chance of being caught by our guy than one that he can't run down.

INTs are momentum changers, but the least momentum changing INTs are the ones that are 50 yards down field, because everyone (including your defense) knows that was a likely possibility anyway.

 

[OrangeMojo]

I was dumb and did it the old fashioned way. At least next time I will have that site, thanks. But another interesting stat is field position rushing.

From our own 1-20 Bailey gets 2.3 ypc
21-39 4.8
40-40 5.7
39-21 5.5
20-1 3.3

So it appears the biggest issue is when we are inside our own 20, which seems to happen a lot this year. Since Nassib doesn't throw many INTs, maybe we should start throwing it more when we are backed up? The funny thing is his comp % is by far the highest when we are inside our own 20 at 76.9%. Or at least use 3 WR sets and create room for Bailey. Last year it wasn't an issue with DC3 and Bart. Inside our own 20, DC3 had his highest ypc at 6.35 which is the opposite of this year.

LOVE these posts - thanks KO3!

 

[ejz555]

to me this is deceiving..because we are 3rd and long all game long.....