SWC75
Bored Historian
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I’ll continue this season to make monthly reports on the top ten batters in each league in “bases produced” and “runs produced”.
The first stat is something I invented in preference to “OPS” or “production”. I like the idea of combining the two basic percentages: on base percentage and slugging percentage, (both of which are better measures of a player’s offense than batting average), but I have a few problems with it. You are adding together two percentages with different divisors: total plate appearances and “official” at bats. You are counting hits on both sides of the equation and thus counting them twice. You are including something the hitter is not actually trying to do: get hit by a pitch. And you are excluding something he is trying to do, something that turns singles into doubles and doubles into triples: steal a base. Also, you wind up with a stat that, while it serves as a ranking isn’t directly translatable into something you can understand. It looks like a percentage but it isn’t. Mike Trout as of May 1st has an OPS of 1.151. That’s better than Kris Bryant (.907) but not as good as Bryce Harper (1.281). But what does it mean? Trout didn’t do something 1,151 times. He didn’t do something 1.151 percent of the time. Finally, I like gross numbers more than percentages. Gross numbers are what actually happened. Percentages are a rate of production, which will produce higher gross numbers if they are better unless there are fewer games played or at bats. And, in that case you don’t know that the rate of production would have continued had there been more games and at bats. It’s only the bases and runs that were actually produced that show up on the scoreboard and determine the outcome of actual games.
My solution is to add the batting bases a hitter produced, (1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run), to the walks to the stolen bases and call that “bases produced”. It would be the leading contributory statistic to the production of runs. If you want to turn it into a percentage, you could divide it by total plate appearances. But I prefer an average per game statistic: the top players in the league tend to play whole games. You’ll find that great offensive player will produce around 3 bases per game. That’s easy to comprehend. And you can watch a game and just count the bases the players accumulate. If your favorite player is in the race for MVP and he walks twice, hits a double and steals a base, he’s increased his base production by 5 bases. What did the other guy do?
The obvious sister stat for bases production is “runs producted”, which has been around for decades: runs scored plus runs batted in minus home runs, (so you don’t count them twice: they are the same run, scored and driven in by the same guy). A top offensive player will produce about 1 run per game. 3 bases and 1 run per game, That’s easy to remember. If all nine guys in the line-up did that, you’d be pretty tough to beat.
Here are the tops tens in run and base production in the American and National leagues for last month. They are ranked in order of gross bases and runs produced with the per game average as the first tie-breaker and the per plate appearance percentage as the second tie-breaker. If still tied, they are listed alphabetically.
AFTER JULY
American League
Bases Produced
Aaron Judge, Yankees 312 in 101 games (3.09) and 441 plate appearances (.707)
Jose Ramirez, Indians 269 in 103 games (2.61) and 435 plate appearances (.618)
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 263 in 103 games (2.55) and 482 plate appearances (.546)
Justin Smoak, Blue Jays 262 in 105 games (2.50) and 412 plate appearances (.636)
George Springer, Astros 261 in 93 games (2.81) and 419 plate appearances (.623)
Khris Davis, Athletics 250 in 104 games (2.40) and 441 plate appearances (.567)
Steven Souza, Rays 248 in 101 games (2.46) and 426 plate appearances (.582)
Corey Dickerson, Rays 248 in 101 games (2.46) and 439 plate appearances (.565)
Eric Hosmer, Royals 244 in 104 games (2.35) and 439 plate appearances ((.556)
Brett Gardner, Yankees 244 in 98 games (2.49) and 441 plate appearances ((.553)
Runs Produced
Aaron Judge, Yankees 124 in 101 games (1.23) and 441 plate appearances (.281)
George Springer, Astros 121 in 93 games (1.30) and 419 plate appearances (.289)
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 120 in 103 games (1.17) and 482 plate appearances (.249)
Jose Altuve, Astros 120 in 102 games (1.18) and 452 plate appearances (.265)
Jonathan Schopp, Orioles 118 in 103 games (1.15) and 428 plate appearances (.276)
Justin Upton, Tigers 112 in 98 games (1.14) and 408 plate appearances (.275)
Carlos Correa, Astros 111 in 84 games (1.32) and 375 plate appearances (.296)
Miguel Sano, Twins 110 in 96 games (1.15) and 408 plate appearances (.270)
Nelson Cruz, Seattle 109 in 102 games (1.07) and 421 plate appearances (.259)
Jose Ramirez, Indians 108 in 103 games (1.05) and 435 plate appearances (.248)
National League
Bases Produced
Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs 300 in 104 games (2.88) and 453 plate appearances (.663)
Bryce Harper, Nationals 295 in 96 games (3.07) and 431 plate appearances (.684)
Charlie Blackmon, Rockies 300 in 104 games (2.88) and 473 plate appearances (.634)
Joey Votto, Reds 294 in 105 games (2.80) and 456 plate appearances (.645)
Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins 279 in 102 games (2.74) and 440 plate appearances (.634)
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 276 in 103 games (2.68) and 450 plate appearances (.613)
Andrew McCutcheon, Pirates 261 in 102 games (2.56) and 431 plate appearances (.606)
Jake Lamb, D-Backs 260 in 102 games (2.55) and 432 plate appearances (.602)
Marcel Ozuna, Marlins 260 in 104 games (2.50) and 441 plate appearances (.590)
Anthony Rendon, Naitonals 259 in 96 games (2.70) and 399 plate appearances (.649)
Runs Produced
Charlie Blackmon, Rockies 139 in 104 games (1.34) and 473 plate appearances (.294)
Bryce Harper, Nationals 139 in 96 games (1.45) and 431 plate appearances (.323)
Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs 138 in 104 games (1.33) and 453 plate appearances (.305)
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 137 in 103 games (1.33) and 450 plate appearances (.304)
Daniel Murphy, Nationals 123 in 97 games (1.27) and 412 plate appearances (.299)
Jake Lamb, D-Backs 120 in 102 games (1.18) and 432 plate appearances (.277)
Marcel Ozuna, Marlins 117 in 104 games (1.125) and 441 plate appearances (.265)
Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins 115 in 102 games (1.13) and 440 plate appearances (.261)
Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals 113 in 94 games (1.20) and 440 plate appearances (.257)
Andrew McCutcheon, Pirates 112 in 102 games (1.10) and 431 plate appearances (.260)
Joey Votto, Reds 112 in 105 games (1.07) and 456 plate appearances (.246)
Comments:
6-7 282 Aaron Judge and 5-6 165 are a real Mutt and Jeff, (remember them?) combination at the top the American league base production standings. But I think we’d better get used to seeing them there. George Springer is also a name we need to get used to. Like Altuve, he’s starting to put up some serious numbers for the Astros. So is Carlos Correa. Maybe they’ll get more national publicity if Houston can make the World Series. Then there’s the sudden appearance of Justin Smoak in the standings at age 30. That’s how many home runs he’s “smoaked” this year. He’s a lifetime .234 hitter who’s never hit more than 20 home runs and suddenly he’s hitting .300 with 30 dingers with two months to go. Hmmmm…
The National League has some more familiar names but Charlie Blackmon is kind of a new face, although you can’t see much of it with his beard. He’s got 57 extra base hits: 20 doubles, 13 triples and 24 home runs and it hitting .328. But beware: it’s Colorado: he’s hitting .273 with 20 XBH on the road. Nolan Arenado is better on the road: .294 with 29 XBH, including 11HR. But those aren’t MVP numbers. I think Bryce Harper is on his was to win that award again. He’s having the same season he did two years ago. It’s nice to see Andrew McCutcheon among the leaders again, too, after a career slump that began last eyar and carried over to the beginning of this year.
The first stat is something I invented in preference to “OPS” or “production”. I like the idea of combining the two basic percentages: on base percentage and slugging percentage, (both of which are better measures of a player’s offense than batting average), but I have a few problems with it. You are adding together two percentages with different divisors: total plate appearances and “official” at bats. You are counting hits on both sides of the equation and thus counting them twice. You are including something the hitter is not actually trying to do: get hit by a pitch. And you are excluding something he is trying to do, something that turns singles into doubles and doubles into triples: steal a base. Also, you wind up with a stat that, while it serves as a ranking isn’t directly translatable into something you can understand. It looks like a percentage but it isn’t. Mike Trout as of May 1st has an OPS of 1.151. That’s better than Kris Bryant (.907) but not as good as Bryce Harper (1.281). But what does it mean? Trout didn’t do something 1,151 times. He didn’t do something 1.151 percent of the time. Finally, I like gross numbers more than percentages. Gross numbers are what actually happened. Percentages are a rate of production, which will produce higher gross numbers if they are better unless there are fewer games played or at bats. And, in that case you don’t know that the rate of production would have continued had there been more games and at bats. It’s only the bases and runs that were actually produced that show up on the scoreboard and determine the outcome of actual games.
My solution is to add the batting bases a hitter produced, (1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run), to the walks to the stolen bases and call that “bases produced”. It would be the leading contributory statistic to the production of runs. If you want to turn it into a percentage, you could divide it by total plate appearances. But I prefer an average per game statistic: the top players in the league tend to play whole games. You’ll find that great offensive player will produce around 3 bases per game. That’s easy to comprehend. And you can watch a game and just count the bases the players accumulate. If your favorite player is in the race for MVP and he walks twice, hits a double and steals a base, he’s increased his base production by 5 bases. What did the other guy do?
The obvious sister stat for bases production is “runs producted”, which has been around for decades: runs scored plus runs batted in minus home runs, (so you don’t count them twice: they are the same run, scored and driven in by the same guy). A top offensive player will produce about 1 run per game. 3 bases and 1 run per game, That’s easy to remember. If all nine guys in the line-up did that, you’d be pretty tough to beat.
Here are the tops tens in run and base production in the American and National leagues for last month. They are ranked in order of gross bases and runs produced with the per game average as the first tie-breaker and the per plate appearance percentage as the second tie-breaker. If still tied, they are listed alphabetically.
AFTER JULY
American League
Bases Produced
Aaron Judge, Yankees 312 in 101 games (3.09) and 441 plate appearances (.707)
Jose Ramirez, Indians 269 in 103 games (2.61) and 435 plate appearances (.618)
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 263 in 103 games (2.55) and 482 plate appearances (.546)
Justin Smoak, Blue Jays 262 in 105 games (2.50) and 412 plate appearances (.636)
George Springer, Astros 261 in 93 games (2.81) and 419 plate appearances (.623)
Khris Davis, Athletics 250 in 104 games (2.40) and 441 plate appearances (.567)
Steven Souza, Rays 248 in 101 games (2.46) and 426 plate appearances (.582)
Corey Dickerson, Rays 248 in 101 games (2.46) and 439 plate appearances (.565)
Eric Hosmer, Royals 244 in 104 games (2.35) and 439 plate appearances ((.556)
Brett Gardner, Yankees 244 in 98 games (2.49) and 441 plate appearances ((.553)
Runs Produced
Aaron Judge, Yankees 124 in 101 games (1.23) and 441 plate appearances (.281)
George Springer, Astros 121 in 93 games (1.30) and 419 plate appearances (.289)
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 120 in 103 games (1.17) and 482 plate appearances (.249)
Jose Altuve, Astros 120 in 102 games (1.18) and 452 plate appearances (.265)
Jonathan Schopp, Orioles 118 in 103 games (1.15) and 428 plate appearances (.276)
Justin Upton, Tigers 112 in 98 games (1.14) and 408 plate appearances (.275)
Carlos Correa, Astros 111 in 84 games (1.32) and 375 plate appearances (.296)
Miguel Sano, Twins 110 in 96 games (1.15) and 408 plate appearances (.270)
Nelson Cruz, Seattle 109 in 102 games (1.07) and 421 plate appearances (.259)
Jose Ramirez, Indians 108 in 103 games (1.05) and 435 plate appearances (.248)
National League
Bases Produced
Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs 300 in 104 games (2.88) and 453 plate appearances (.663)
Bryce Harper, Nationals 295 in 96 games (3.07) and 431 plate appearances (.684)
Charlie Blackmon, Rockies 300 in 104 games (2.88) and 473 plate appearances (.634)
Joey Votto, Reds 294 in 105 games (2.80) and 456 plate appearances (.645)
Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins 279 in 102 games (2.74) and 440 plate appearances (.634)
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 276 in 103 games (2.68) and 450 plate appearances (.613)
Andrew McCutcheon, Pirates 261 in 102 games (2.56) and 431 plate appearances (.606)
Jake Lamb, D-Backs 260 in 102 games (2.55) and 432 plate appearances (.602)
Marcel Ozuna, Marlins 260 in 104 games (2.50) and 441 plate appearances (.590)
Anthony Rendon, Naitonals 259 in 96 games (2.70) and 399 plate appearances (.649)
Runs Produced
Charlie Blackmon, Rockies 139 in 104 games (1.34) and 473 plate appearances (.294)
Bryce Harper, Nationals 139 in 96 games (1.45) and 431 plate appearances (.323)
Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs 138 in 104 games (1.33) and 453 plate appearances (.305)
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 137 in 103 games (1.33) and 450 plate appearances (.304)
Daniel Murphy, Nationals 123 in 97 games (1.27) and 412 plate appearances (.299)
Jake Lamb, D-Backs 120 in 102 games (1.18) and 432 plate appearances (.277)
Marcel Ozuna, Marlins 117 in 104 games (1.125) and 441 plate appearances (.265)
Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins 115 in 102 games (1.13) and 440 plate appearances (.261)
Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals 113 in 94 games (1.20) and 440 plate appearances (.257)
Andrew McCutcheon, Pirates 112 in 102 games (1.10) and 431 plate appearances (.260)
Joey Votto, Reds 112 in 105 games (1.07) and 456 plate appearances (.246)
Comments:
6-7 282 Aaron Judge and 5-6 165 are a real Mutt and Jeff, (remember them?) combination at the top the American league base production standings. But I think we’d better get used to seeing them there. George Springer is also a name we need to get used to. Like Altuve, he’s starting to put up some serious numbers for the Astros. So is Carlos Correa. Maybe they’ll get more national publicity if Houston can make the World Series. Then there’s the sudden appearance of Justin Smoak in the standings at age 30. That’s how many home runs he’s “smoaked” this year. He’s a lifetime .234 hitter who’s never hit more than 20 home runs and suddenly he’s hitting .300 with 30 dingers with two months to go. Hmmmm…
The National League has some more familiar names but Charlie Blackmon is kind of a new face, although you can’t see much of it with his beard. He’s got 57 extra base hits: 20 doubles, 13 triples and 24 home runs and it hitting .328. But beware: it’s Colorado: he’s hitting .273 with 20 XBH on the road. Nolan Arenado is better on the road: .294 with 29 XBH, including 11HR. But those aren’t MVP numbers. I think Bryce Harper is on his was to win that award again. He’s having the same season he did two years ago. It’s nice to see Andrew McCutcheon among the leaders again, too, after a career slump that began last eyar and carried over to the beginning of this year.
