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Message: [QUOTE="SWC75, post: 4447755, member: 289"] (This season I’ve decided to just make one report on the baseball statistics I like. I’ll probably just do season ending reports on this and on NBA Net Points at the end of the season rather than making monthly reports, which are a little labor intensive. I need more time for other projects and chores.) The first stat is something I invented in preference to “OPS” or “production”. I like the idea of combining the two basic percentages: on base percentage and slugging percentage, (both of which are better measures of a player’s offense than batting average), but I have a few problems with it. You are adding together two percentages with different divisors: total plate appearances and “official” at bats. You are counting hits on both sides of the equation and thus counting them twice. You are including something the hitter is not actually trying to do: get hit by a pitch. And you are excluding something he is trying to do, something that turns singles into doubles and doubles into triples: steal a base. Also, you wind up with a stat that, while it serves as a ranking isn’t directly translatable into something you can understand. It looks like a percentage but it isn’t. (From my 2019 intro), Mike Trout as of May 1st has an OPS of 1.052. That’s better than Bryce Harper 0.878) but not as good as Ryon Healy (1.082). But what does it mean? Trout didn’t do something 1,052 times. He didn’t do something 1.052 percent of the time. Finally, I like gross numbers more than percentages. Gross numbers are what actually happened. Percentages are a rate of production, which will produce higher gross numbers if they are better unless there are fewer games played or at bats. And, in that case you don’t know that the rate of production would have continued had there been more games and at bats. It’s only the bases and runs that were actually produced that show up on the scoreboard and determine the outcome of actual games. My solution is to add the batting bases a hitter produced, (1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run), to the walks to the stolen bases and call that “bases produced”. It would be the leading contributory statistic to the production of runs. If you want to turn it into a percentage, you could divide it by total plate appearances. But I prefer an average per game statistic: the top players in the league tend to play whole games. You’ll find that great offensive player will produce around 3 bases per game. That’s easy to comprehend. And you can watch a game and just count the bases the players accumulate. If your favorite player is in the race for MVP and he walks twice, hits a double and steals a base, he’s increased his base production by 5 bases. What did the other guy do? The obvious sister stat for bases production is “runs produced”, which has been around for decades: runs scored plus runs batted in minus home runs, (so you don’t count them twice: they are the same run, scored and driven in by the same guy). A top offensive player will produce about 1 run per game. 3 bases and 1 run per game. That’s easy to remember. If all nine guys in the line-up did that, you’d be pretty tough to beat. This year I’ve decided to add a few other stats, two of which will allow me to evaluate pitchers, too. The first one I’m calling “clutch percentage”. I’m aware that many people in baseball don’t think there is such a thing as clutch hitting. I don’t agree: I watch the games and it is completely apparent that it’s not just what you do but when you do it that counts. I’m a Mets fan and noticed, (in 2019), that Wilson Ramos was, by most measures, having a poor season:.247 batting average, .313 on base percentage, .303 slugging percentage. But he had 17 RBIs compared to 27 total bases. Divide the RBIs by total bases and his bat is driving in 63% as many runs as it’s procuring bases. Mike Trout has 16 RBIs on 48 batting bases, 33%. It’s very early and the numbers can change greatly but so far Ramos would seem to be a better clutch hitter than Trout. I’ve always wanted to do something to evaluate pitchers. When I look at a box score, (and I’ve had occasion lately to look at Mets box scores to try to figure out the pitching), I look at the ‘BF’ (batters faced) on Baseball Reference.com. Then I look at hits, walks and hit batsmen to get the number of baserunners that were the pitcher’s fault. I divide that by the BF to get the percentage of batters that get on base off the pitcher. Then I look at earned runs and compare that to the number of these ‘earned’ baserunners. What percentage of them scored? (In 2018), Jacob DeGrom faced 835 batters, 203 of whom reached base from hits, walks or being plunked. That’s 24.3%, or .243. That was best in the National League and second best in the majors to Justin Verlander of the Astros who had .241. Jake allowed 421 earned runs from those 203 earned baserunners, or .202, the best in the majors, (Blake Snell and Trevor Bauer led the AL .215. My data base is the top 50 players in each league in runs scored and runs batted in and the top 50 pitchers in innings pitched. For the batters, ties are broken first by games played, then by plate appearances, (the fewer of each you have, the more impressive your gross bases and runs produced are. The more you have the more impressive a clutch percentage is: you’ve maintained it longer). Pitching ties are broken by innings pitched, (the more innings you’ve pitched, the more impressive a low rate of giving up baserunners and runs is.) If there is a tie for 10th place all those tied will be listed. AMERICAN LEAGUE Hitters Bases Produced Aaron Judge NYY 518 in 157 games (3.30) and 696 plate appearances (.744) Yordan Alvarez HOU 416 in 135 games (3.08) and 561 plate appearances (.742) Jose Ramirez, CLE 398 in 157 games (2.54) and 685 plate appearances (.581) Shohei Ohtani, LAA 387 in 157 games (2.46) and 666 plate appearances (.581) Vladimir Guerrero TOR 383 in 160 games (2.39) and 706 plate appearances (.542) Jose Altuve HOU 365 in 141 games (2.59) and 604 plate appearances (.604) Bo Bichette TOR 360 in 159 games (2.26) and 697 plate appearances (.603) Marcus Siemen TOR 360 in 161 games (2.24) and 724 plate appearances (.497) Kyle Tucker HOU 344 in 150 games (2.29) and 609 plate appearances (.565) Rafael Devers, BOS 342 in 141 games (2.41) and 614 plate appearances (.557) Nathaniel Lowe TEX 342 in 157 games (2.18) and 645 plate appearances (.530) Runs Produced Aaron Judge NYY 202 in 157 games (1.29) and 696 plate appearances (.290) Jose Ramirez CLE 187 in 157 games (1.19) and 685 plate appearances (.273) Alex Bregman HOU 163 in 155 games (1.05) and 656 plate appearances (.248) Adolis Garcia TEX 162 in 156 games (1.04) and 657 plate appearances (.247) Bo Bichette TOR 160 in 159 games (1.01) and 697 plate appearances (.230) Marcus Siemen TOR 158 in 161 games (0.98) and 724 plate appearances (.218) Yordan Alvarez HOU 155 in 135 games (1.15) and 561 plate appearances (.276) Vladimir Guerrero TOR 155 in 160 games (0.97) and 706 plate appearances (.220) Shohei Ohtani, LAA 151 in 157 games (0.96) and 666 plate appearances (.227) Kyle Tucker HOU 148 in 150 games (0.99) and 609 plate appearances (.243) Clutch Hitting Giancarlo Stanton NYY 78 RBI from 184 batting bases = .424 Kyle Tucker HOU 107 RBI from 260 batting bases = .412 Jose Ramirez CLE 126 RBI from 309 batting bases = .408 Josh Naylor CLE 79 RBI from 203 batting bases = .389 Alex Bregman HOU 93 RBI from 249 batting bases = .373 Salvador Perez KCR 76 RBI from 207 batting bases = .367 Adolis Garcia TEX 101 RBI from 276 batting bases = .366 Ryan Mountcastle BAL 85 RBI from 235 batting bases = .362 Eugenio Suarez SEA 87 RBI from 249 batting bases = .349 Jose Miranda MIN 66 RBI from 189 batting bases = .349 Comments: Aaron Judge was the most dominant hitter in MLB this year. His only real rival for MVP was Shohei Ohtani because he was a fine pitcher as well as a powerful hitter and no one has ever done both as well as he has, (Ruth maybe could have but he stopped pitching, he said because it interfered with his nightlife). But there were better hitters and better pitchers than Ohtani and his team didn’t make the playoffs. Judge’s season was also historical as he set the American League home run record, (Bonds, McGwire and Sosa were all in the National League). I don’t think very many people will argue with Aaron winning the MVP. Pitchers On Base Percentage – Starters Justin Verlander HOU 151 baserunners of 666 batters faced = .227 Nestor Cortez NYY 148 baserunners of 615 batters faced = .241 Shane McClendon TBR 156 baserunners of 641 batters faced = .245 Javier Christian HOU 147 baserunners of 585 batters faced = .251 Triston McKenzie CLE 187 baserunners of 741 batters faced = .252 Shohei Ohtani LAA 170 baserunners of 660 batters faced = .258 Ross Stripling TOR 139 baserunners of 536 batters faced = .259 Gerrit Cole NYY 206 baserunners of 793 batters faced = .260 Shane Bieber CLE 210 baserunners of 791 batters faced = .2654867 Drew Rasmussen TOR 155 baserunners of 584 batters faced = .2654109 On Base Percentage – Relief Pitchers Emmanuel Chase CLE 54 baserunners of 271 batters faced = .199 Paul Sewald SEA 53 baserunners of 242 batters faced = .219 Jason Adam TBR 54 baserunners of 237 batters faced = .228 Reynaldo Lopez CWS 63 baserunners of 254 batters faced = .248 Andres Munoz SEA 62 baserunners of 248 batters faced = .250 Penn Murfee SEA 68 baserunners of 272 batters faced = .250 Domingo Acevedo OAK 70 baserunners of 266 batters faced = .263 John Schreiber BOS 68 baserunners of 257 batters faced = .265 Brooks Raley TBR 58 baserunners of 219 batters faced = .265 Scott Barlow KCR 77 baserunners of 290 batters faced = .266 Scoring Percentage - Starters Dylan Crease CWS 45 earned runs from 207 baserunners = .217 Justin Verlander HOU 34 earned runs from 151 baserunners = .225 Alek Manoah TOR 49 earned runs from 210 baserunners = .233 Patrick Sandoval LAA 48 earned runs from 204 baserunners = .235 Martin Perez TEX 63 earned runs from 253 baserunners = .249 Shohei Ohtani LAA 43 earned runs from 170 baserunners = .2529411 Jeffrey Springs TBR 37 earned runs from 146 baserunners = .2534246 Framber Valdez HOU 63 earned runs from 244 baserunners = .258 Javier Christian HOU 42 earned runs from 147 baserunners = .286 Nestor Cortez NYY 43 earned runs from 148 baserunners = .291 Scoring Percentage – Relievers Ryan Stanek HOU 7 earned runs from 67 baserunners = .104 Clonel Perez BAL 9 earned runs from 68 baserunners = .162 Matt Moore TEX 16 earned runs from 88 baserunners = .182 Emanuel Chase CLE 11 earned runs from 54 baserunners = .204 Jason Adam TBR 11 earned runs from 54 baserunners = .204 Jordan Romano TOR 15 earned runs from 69 baserunners = .217 Jorge Lopez BAL/MIN 20 earned runs from 91 baserunners = .220 David Phelps TOR 20 earned runs from 87 baserunners = .220 Dylan Coleman KCR 21 earned runs from 90 baserunners = .233 Scott Barlow KCR 18 earned runs from 77 baserunners = .234 Comments: Verlander was an obvious choice for the Cy Young: the best pitcher in the league and the ace of the championship team. Ryan Stanek gave up 67 baserunners, (36 hits, 31 walks: he didn’t hit anybody), of 224 batters faced, a decent but not exceptional percentage (.299) but he was miserly once they got on base as just 7 of 67 scored, (.104, easily the best in the majors). NATIONAL LEAGUE Hitters Bases Produced Paul Goldschmidt STL 410 in 151 games (2.71) and 651 plate appearances (.620) Freddie Freeman ATL 410 in 159 games (2.58) and 708 plate appearances (.579) Kyle Schwarber PHI 387 in 155 games (2.50) and 669 plate appearances (.578) Austin Riley ATL 384 in 159 games (2.42) and 693 plate appearances (.554) Pete Alonso, NYM 354 in 152 games (2.33) and 637 plate appearances (.556) Manny Machado SDP 379 in 150 games (2.53) and 644 plate appearances (.589) Juan Soto WAS/SDP 378 in 153 games (2.47) and 664 plate appearances (.569) Trae Turner LAD 376 in 160 games (2.35) and 708 plate appearances (.531) Mookie Betts LAD 372 in 142 games (2.62) and 639 plate appearances (.582) Matt Olson ATL 369 in 162 games (2.28) and 699 plate appearances (.528) Runs Produced Freddie Freeman, ATL 196 in 159 games (1.23) and 708 plate appearances (.277) Paul Goldschmidt STL 186 in 151 games (1.23) and 651 plate appearances (.286) Pete Alonso NYM 186 in 152 games (1.22) and 637 plate appearances (.292) Trae Turner LAD 180 in 160 games (1.125) and 708 plate appearances (.254) Francisco Lindor NYM 179 in 161 games (1.11) and 706 plate appearances (.254) Manny Machado SD 170 in 150 games (1.13) and 644 plate appearances (.264) Dansby Swanson ATL 170 in 162 games (1.05) and 696 plate appearances (.244) Mookie Betts NYM 164 in 142 games (1.15) and 639 plate appearances (.257) Jake Cronenworth SDP 159 in 158 games (1.01) and 684 plate appearances (.232) Matt Olson ATL 155 in 162 games (0.96) and 699 plate appearances (.222) Clutch Hitting Pete Alonso NYM 131 RBI from 309 batting bases =.4239482 Nelson Cruz WAS 64 RBI from 151 batting bases = .4238410 Albert Pujols STL 68 RBI from 169 batting bases = .402 Justin Turner LAD 81 RBI from 205 batting bases = .395 Max Muncy LAD 69 RBI from 178 batting bases =.388 Kyle Farmer CIN 78 RBI from 203 batting bases = .384 Jake Cronenworth SDP 88 RBI from 231 batting bases = .381 Willie Adames MIL 98 RBI from 258 batting bases = .380 CJ Cron COL 102 RBI from 269 batting bases = .379 Francisco Lindor NYM 107 RBI from 283 batting bases = .378 Comments: Paul Goldschmidt is a contemporary of Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. Both Goldschmidt and Trout got a cup of coffee in 2011 but had their first full seasons in 2012 while Harper debuted that year after a cold month in Syracuse. Harper was the heralded one – the next Mickey Mantle. But as the season progressed people were noticing that Trout was the one putting up big numbers. Harper has had an up-and-down career while Trout has established himself as the ‘GOAT’ for this generation, anyway. Goldschmidt has hardly gotten any attention at all. He played in Arizona, which both made him kind of anonymous and also was thought to have made it easier for him to put up big numbers. But now he’s in St. Louis, where he’s much more noticeable and is still putting up big numbers at sea level. Per 162 games, Trout is hitting .303 with 40 homers, 23 steals, 103rbo and 121rs. He’s produced 473 bases and 184 runs. Harper has hit .280 with 33 HR, 14SB, 96rbi and 107rs. He’s produced 418 bases and 170 runs. Goldschmidt has hit .295 with 32HR 15SB 104rbi and 104rs. He’s produced 419 bases and 176 runs. It’s a triumvirate, not a duo. Pitchers On Base Percentage – starters Julio Urias LAD 173 baserunners of 689 batters faced = .251 Zach Gallen AZ 180 baserunners of 714 batters faced = .252 Max Scherzer NYM 143 baserunners of 565 batters faced = .253 Spencer Strider ATL 134 baserunners of 528 batters faced = .254 Aaron Nola PHI 206 baserunners of 807 batters faced = .255 Yu Darvish SDP 197 baserunners of 771 batters faced = .256 Corbin Burnes MIL 208 baserunners of 797 batters faced = .2609786 Max Fried ATL 192 baserunners of 733 batters faced = .2619372 Carlos Rondon SFG 186 baserunners of 710 batters faced = .2619718 Sandy Alcantara MIA 233 baserunners of 886 batters faced = .263 On Base Percentage – relievers Evan Phillips LAD 51 baserunners of 233 batters faced = .219 Edwin Diaz MYM 54 baserunners of 235 batters faced = .230 Wil Crowe PIT 81 baserunners of 332 batters faced = .244 AJ Minter ATL 67 baserunners of 271 batters faced = .247 Chris Martin CHC/LAD 56 baserunners of 225 batters faced = .249 Giovanny Gallegos STL 60 baserunners of 235 batters faced = .255 Daniel Bard COL 63 baserunners of 245 batters faced = .2571428 Collin McHugh ATL 70 baserunners of 272 batters faced = .2573529 Alexis Diaz CIN 66 baserunners of 255 batters faced = .259 Kenley Jansen ATL 69 baserunners of 260 batters faced = .265 Scoring Percentage - starters Julio Urias LAD 42 baserunners of 173 batters faced = .243 Sandy Alcantara MIA 58 baserunners of 233 batters faced = .249 Max Scherzer NYM 37 baserunners of 143 batters faced = .259 Max Fried ATL 51 baserunners of 192 batters faced = .266 German Marquez COL 101 baserunners of 252 batters faced = .270 Tyler Anderson LAD 51 baserunners of 188 batters faced = .271 Joe Musgrove SDP 59 baserunners of 210 batters faced = .281 Zach Gallen ARI 52 baserunners of 180 batters faced = .289 Spencer Strider ATL 39 baserunners of 134 batters faced = .291 Kyle Wright ATL 64 baserunners of 218 batters faced = .294 Scoring Percentage - relievers Evan Phillips LAD 8 baserunners of 51 batters faced = .157 Edwin Diaz MYM 9 baserunners of 54 batters faced = .167 Daniel Bard COL 12 baserunners of 63 batters faced = .190 Alexis Diaz CIN 13 baserunners of 66 batters faced = .197 Devin Williams MIL 13 baserunners of 64 batters faced = .203 Brad Hand PHI 14 baserunners of 66 batters faced = .212 Adam Ottavino NYM 15 baserunners of 69 batters faced = .217 Camilo DuVal SFG 19 baserunners of 87 batters faced = .218 David Robertson CHC/PHI 17 baserunners of 77 batters faced = .221 AJ Minter ATL 16 baserunners of 67 batters faced = .239 Comments: I’m kind of myopic about baseball since I normally just watch Mets game, (and see other players when they play the Mets). I thought Edwin Diaz was easily the best closer in baseball. But the Dodger’s Evan Phillips topped him in both preventing baserunners and preventing them from scoring, (although not by much). Julio Urias went 17-7 with a 2.16 ERA. Sand Alcantara went 14-9 with a 2.28 ERA. Urias was better at keeping runners off the base and preventing them from scoring. Alcantara wins the Cy Young. Go Figure. [/QUOTE]

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