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[QUOTE="OrlandoCuse, post: 146067, member: 115"]
So I thought it would be interesting to see how teams fared that were ranked #1 (AP Poll) on the second week January, going back the last 16 seasons, to see if it was a good indicator of future results in the NCAA tourney. The results were interesting:
 
[U]Year; Team; NCAA seed; NCAA result[/U]
2011 OSU, 1 seed, L in Sweet 16
2010 Texas, 8 seed, L in First round
2009 Pitt, 1 seed, L in Elite 8
2008 UNC, 1 seed, L in Final 4
2007 UNC, 1 seed, L in Elite 8
2006 Duke, 1 seed, L in Sweet 16
2005 Illinois, 1 seed, L N.C. game
2004 Duke, 1 seed, L Final 4
2003 Duke, 3 seed, L Sweet 16
2002 Kansas, 1 seed, L Final 4
2001 Duke, 1 seed, Won N.C.
2000 Cinci, 2 seed, L 2nd Round
1999 UConn, 1 seed, Won N.C.
1998 UNC, 1 seed, L Final 4
1997 Kansas, 1 seed, L Sweet 16
1996 UMass, 1 seed, L Final 4
 
[LIST]
[*]The results were very mixed when trying to predict the National Champion, as the January week 2 poll #1 only produced 2 out of 16 National Champions. (12.5%)
[*]Out of the 16 teams to be ranked #1 in the 2nd week of January, 8 of them went on the at least the Final Four (50%).
[*]Out of the 16 teams, 13 went on to get a #1 seed. This would have been 14 out of 16 had Kenyon Martin not broken his leg in the C-USA tourney, causing Cinci to slip to a 2 seed in 2000. I'll split the difference between 13 and 14, and say we have an 85% chance of getting a 1 seed, based upon historic data.
[*]Texas in 2010 is really the only team that was ranked #1 at this point in the season to fall completely off the map.
[/LIST]
[I]*I'll try to update this analysis every week that we remain #1.[/I]
[/QUOTE]

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