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Message: [QUOTE="SWC75, post: 151666, member: 289"] Taking it back a bit farther… The first year there was a poll was the 1948-49 season. The first poll was taken 1/18/49 and the top team was St. (sorry, Saint) Louis, 11-0 led by their All-American, Easy Ed McCauley, (who died just a few months ago). In the last poll, March 8, they were still #3 at 20-3. As a lot of teams did in that time, they preferred to go to the NIT rather than the NCAA tournament, (which had only 8 teams at the time- no where near enough, in my opinion), where they lost in the quarterfinals. Kentucky, who had been #2 at 11-1, was #1 in the 3/8 poll and won the NCAA tournament. (They didn’t have seeds until 1979) 1950: Holy Cross led the 1/17 poll at 13-0. They were still #4 at 26-1 in the final poll (3/7). Bradley, who had been #4 at 14-2 on 1/17, was 27-3 and #1 in the 3/7 poll. Both teams went to the NCAA’s. Holy Cross lost in the quarterfinals, Bradley in the Finals to CCNY. The same two teams had played in the NIT Finals, which were held before the NCAAs, with the same result. Holy Cross played only in the NCAAs 1951: Oklahoma A&M, (now State), was 15-0 and #1 on 1/16. In the final poll (3/6) they were #2 at 26-3. Kentucky, which had been #2 at 10-1 on 1/16, was #1, (27-2) and they went on to win the national title over Kansas State, who had beaten the Cowboys in the semi-finals. 1952: Kansas, (12-0), led the 1/15 poll. They were 21-2 and #3 in the 3/11 poll but went on to win the national championship 80-63 over St. John’s. Kentucky had been #1 in the 3/11 poll at 28-2 but lost to St. John’s in the quarterfinals. 1953: Kansas State was #1 in the 1/13 poll at 8-1, (even thought Seton Hall with 6-11 Walter Dukes was 15-0: the Pirates were #2). K-State fell all the way to #12 in the 3/17 poll at 17-4. They didn’t go to a post-season tournament. Indiana, which had been #6 on 1/13, topped the St. Paddy’s day poll at 23-3 and went onto win the national championship over Kansas by a point. Seton Hall was still #2 and went on to win the NIT and finish 31-2, their best record ever. 1954: Kentucky led both the 1/12 and 1/19 polls and ran the table, going 25-0 and finishing #1 in the final (3/16) poll. But they didn’t play in a post season tournament due to a dispute with the NCAA, (three players had graduated the year before when Kentucky was not allowed to play because of a point shaving scandal and the NCAA said they could play in the tournament). They’d beaten LaSalle 73-60 during the season and the Explorers, ranked #19 in the 1/19 poll at 14-3 and #12 in the march 9 poll, won the NCAA title over Bradley but everyone considered the Wildcats to be the bets team in the country. 1955: Kentucky led the 1/18 poll at 9-1 and finished #2 at 22-2 in the 3/8 poll. But this was the Bill Russell era. San Francisco was 12-1 and #3 on 1/18 and 23-1 and #1 on 3/8. They went on to win the national title over LaSalle , who had lost to Marquette in the Sweet 16. The Wildcats lost in the Sweet 16. 1956: The Dons, building a 60 game winning streak, were #1 in the 1/17 poll and also in the 3/13 poll. They won their second straight national championship over Iowa. 1957: Kansas, with Wilt Chamberlain was #1 at 12-0 on 1/15 while North Carolina was #2 at 14-0. On 3/12 UNC was #1 at 27-0 and the Jayhawks were #2 at 21-2. The Tar Hells beat them in three overtimes for the national title, 54-53, (they’d also won the semis in 3OT over Michigan State) to finish at 32-0. 1958: Led by Jerry West, West Virginia was #1 at 12-0 on 1/14. They were still #1 on 3/11 at 26-1. But they were knocked off in the first round of the NCAAs by Manhattan, 84-89, (what would now be the round of 32: there were 24 teams and somehow the #1 ranked team didn’t get a bye). Kentucky, who had been #13 in the writer’s poll and #9 in the coach’s poll on 1/14 won the national title over Seattle and Elgin Baylor. 1959: North Carolina State was #1 on 1/13 at 11-1 but fell to #5/#6 at 22-4 on 3/9. Kansas State who had been #3/#4 at 11-1 on 1/13 finished #1 at 24-1 on 3/9. But California beat West Virginia 71-70 for the title. K-State lost a regional final to Oscar Robertson and Cincinnati. NC State didn’t play in the tournament due to probation. 1960: Cincinnati was 12-0 and #1 on 1/12 and they were still #1 and 24-1 on 3/8. They made it to the national semi finals. Ohio State, which had been #5 on 1/12 and #3 on 3/8, beat California, who had been #2 in each poll, for the title. 1961: The Buckeyes, seeking to repeat, were 12-0 and #1 on 1/17. They were still unbeaten at 23-0 and #1 on 3/7. Cincinnati was unranked on 1/17, (they first appeared at #18 at 11-3 the next week), but rose to #2 at 23-3 on 3/7 and beat the Buckeyes, 70-65 in OT for the title. 1962: Déjà vu all over again as Ohio State was 12-0 and ranked #1 on 1/16 while Cincy was 11-2 and #3. On 3/13 The Buckeyes were still #1 at 23-1 and the Bearcats #2 at 24-2. They again met in the finals and again the bearcats won, this time in regulation, 71-59. 1963: This time Cincinnati was the king of the hill on 1/15 at 13-0, just ahead of the Ramblers of Loyola of Chicago, who were 15-0. In the 3/12 poll, Cincy was still ahead at 23-1 and going for a third straight tile. Duke had moved in second but Loyola was still 3rd, both 24-2. Loyola upset the Bearcats, 60-58 on Vic Rouse’s follow-shot at the buzzer in overtime for the title. 1964: The University of California at Los Angeles appeared in the #1 spot on 1/14. At 13-0. They were still #1 on 3/10 at 26-0 and finished 30-0 with a 98-83 title game win over Duke. 1965: UCLA was again #1 at 11-1 on 1/12 but fell behind Michigan in the 3/9 poll. The Wolverines were 22-1 and the Bruins 24-2 but it was the Bruins who won when they both reached the national final, 91-80. 1966: You saw the movie. Duke was 14-1 and #1 on 1/18, with Kentucky #2 at 12-0. Texas Western, also 12-0, was #8. On 3/8 The Wildcats were #1 at 23-1, Duke #2 at 23-3 and Texas Western #3 at 23-1. The Miners, with an all-black starting line up, beat the all-white Wildcats, 72-65 in the historic final. 1967: The Lew Alcindor, (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar), era began with UCLA #1 at 12-0 on 1/17 and the same at 25-0 on 3/7. When Dayton played them for the national title, their star, Don May said that in the warm-ups “we realized we had come as far as we would go“. UCLA 79 Dayton 64. 1968: On 1/16 UCLA was 12-0 and #1 and Houston was 16-0 and #2 and all set to play each other in the Astrodome in the game that put college basketball on the map. The Cougars, behind 39 points and 15 rebounds by Elvin Hayes, won 71-69. On 3/12 Houston was 29-0 and 31, UCLA was 25-1 and #2. But the Bruins extracted a cruel revenge, blowing the Cougars away in the national semi-finals, 101-69 as Hayes scored 10 points. The Bruins then beat UNC 78-55 in the final. They may have been the best college team ever at that moment. 1969: The Bruins were rolling along at 11-0 and #1 on 1/14. They lost to USC in double-overtime but were still #1 at 25-1 on 3/11. And went on to crush Purdue and Rick Mount 92-72 for the title. 1970: Big Lew was gone, (so was his name) but the Bruins were still unbeaten at 10-0 and #1 on 1/13. They lost a couple but were still #2 at 24-2 to Kentucky’s 25-1on 3/10. Jacksonville with it’s two 7 footers, Artis Gilmore and Pembrooke Burrows, beat the Wildcats in a regional final but couldn’t handle the bruins, who won their 4th straight NCAA title and 6th in 7 years, 80-69. 1971: The Bruins were 11-0 and #1 on 1/12. They lost to Notre Dame, thanks to 46 points by Austin Carr but were still ranked #1 at 25-1 over 27-0 Marquette and 27-0 Pennsylvania on 3/16. The (then) Warriors lost in the Sweet 16 and the Quakers in the Elite 8 by a shocking 47-90 margin to Villanova, who lost to the Bruins, 62-68 for the title. 1972: On 1/18 UCLA was 12-0 and #1. Marquette was 12-0 and #2. The Warriors faded with 4 losses but the era of the Walton gang had begun and Bruins stormed to another title, being 26-0 and #1 on 3/16 and beating Florida State 81-76 for the title. 1973: On 1/16 both UCLA and NC State were 12-0 and ranked #1-#2. On 3/13 the Bruins were 26-0 and the Wolfpack 27-0 and they were still #1-#2. But State’s season was over due to probation and UCLA went on to their second straight 30-0 season, beating Memphis State in the final, 87-66 and Walton scored 44 points on 21 for 22 shooting, (the one miss was a block). It was their seventh consecutive national championship. 1974: UCLA finally had their confrontation with NC State and their big star, David Thompson. They compromised and played the game in St. Louis and the Bruins won 84-66. They kept rolling and were 11-0 and #1 on 1/15. #2 was Notre Dame at 8-0. The Irish had been the last team to beat UCLA and the broke the Bruin’s 88 game winning streak, (still the record), four days later in South Bend, 71-70. The invincible Bruins faltered after that, losing to Oregon and Oregon State on the same weekend. They were still ranked #2 at 26-4 on 3/19. Notre Dame had faded, too, with three losses but the Wolfpack was 30-1 and ranked #1 and the Final Four was in Greensboro. There they beat UCLA 80-77 in double overtime and the Marquette in the final, 76-64 for the title. 1975: Indiana was #1 on 1/14 at 14-0. UCLA, now without and Alcindor or Walton was #2 at 10-0. On 3/18 they remained #1 at 30-0 with the Bruins #2 at 24-3. But Scott May broke his arm and Kentucky beat the Hoosiers in a regional final. The Bruins went on to win their 10th title in 12 years, beating Kentucky, (who had swatted away a pesky Syracuse team in the semi-finals), 92-85 in the final. John Wooden announced his retirement after the game. 1976: The Hoosiers were again 12-0 and #1 on 1/13. They were 28-0 and #1 on 3/16. They became the last undefeated national champion, beating a Gene Bartow coached UCLA team in the semi and then Michigan in the final. 1977: In a blast from the past, San Francisco at 19-0 was #1 on 1/18. And they had a center named Bill- Cartwright. They even got to 29-0, the record of the ’56 champs. But they lost twice after that, including a 95-121 blow out at the hands of Jerry Tarkainian UNLV Rebels in the first round of the NCAAs. They’d been #2/#3 in the last poll before the tournament. Michigan, who had been #5 on 1/18, led the final poll at 25-3 on 3/15. Neither won the title, which as won by Al McGuire’s Marquette team, 67-59 over UNC, after which McGuire retired to become a commentator. They were #8 on 1/18 and #7 on 3/15. Michigan lost to UNC Charlotte in the Elite 8, just after the 49ers had shocked Jim Boeheim’s first team in the Sweet 16. 1978: Kentucky was #1 at 12-0 on 1/17 and still #1 at 26-2 on 3/13. And they were #1 at the end, too, beating Duke for the title, 94-88. 1979: Notre Dame was #1 at 8-1 on 1/16. Magic Johnson’s Indiana State team had been #1 the previous week but got beat twice to fall to #6 at 9-3. Indiana State had a great player, Larry Bird and undefeated record at 145-0 and a high ranking at #5 but were they for real? On 3/13 they were 30-0 and ranked #1but people still wondered. The Spartans with 6 losses were till ranked #3mostly due to Johnson. UCLA was #2 at 24-4. The Sycamores made it all the way to the title game, where they met State, who had overcome their slump and beat them 75-64. Notre Dame, ranked #4 and a #1 seed, had lost to the champs in a regional final and wound up 24-6. This was the first year of seedings. Indiana State was a #1, Michigan State a #2. 1980: DePaul, (yes, DePaul), was 12-0 and ranked #1 on 1/15 over 11-1 Ohio State and 14-0 Syracuse. On 3/04, they were still #1 at 26-1. With State #9/#10 at 20-7 and the ‘Cuse #6 at 25-3. Louisville, who had been #6/#7 on 1/15, was #2 on 3/04 with a 28-3 record. They went on to beat UCLA, who had beaten DePaul in the Sweet 16, for the title 59-54. The Cards were a #2 seed, DePaul, (and SU) a #1. 1981: DePaul again got off to a 12-0 start but lost prior to the 1/13 poll and were #3/#4. Oregon State at 12-0 was #1 and Virginia, with Ralph Sampson, was #2 at 11-0. 10-1 Kentucky was #3/#4. But DePaul ran the regular season table and was again #1 in the 3/10 poll, with 26-1 Oregon State #2. They were both #1 seeds, got first round byes and got beat in second round, (neither scored 50 points). #3 seed Indiana, who had been #19 in the writer’s poll on 1/13#7/#9 in the 3/10 poll, won the title 63-50 over North Carolina behind Isaiah Thomas. 1982: North Carolina, with a freshman named Michael Jordan, was #1 at 12-0 on 1/12 and also in the 3/9 poll at 27-2, above DePaul who was again 26-1. Both got #1 seeds but DePaul again lost in the second round after a bye, (to Boston College). UNC went on to win a classic battle with Patrick Ewing’s Georgetown team for the title, 63-62 on Jordan’s jump shot. 1983: UCLA at 11-1 topped the 1/18 poll but by 3/15 they were 23-5 and ranked #7. Houston, (“Phi Slamma Jamma”) was #1 at 27-2 and Louisville, (“The Doctors of Dunk”) were #2 at 29-3. They had been #9 and #7/#8 on 1/18. They both got 1 seeds and UCLA a 2 seed. The Bruins went down in the second round after a bye while the two dunking fraternities met in what was supposed to be “the real national championship game” in the national semi-finals with the Cougars winning 94-81. They then frittered away a lead on lost to NC State on Lorenzo Charles’ dunk in the final, 52-54. 1984: UNC and Jordan were #1 at 12-0 on 1/17 and they were still #1 at 27-2 on 3/13. The Heels got a #1 seed but lost in the Sweet 16 to Indiana. Georgetown, who had been #6 on 1/17 and #2 at 29-3 on 3/13, won the national title 84-75 over Houston, Ewing triumphing over Olajuwon. 1985: The Hoyas, at the height of their power were 15-0 and #1 on 1/15. Duke, was #2 at 12-0. On 3/12 the Blue Devils, just beginning their era as a power under Coach K, were 22-7 and #12 but Georgetown was #1 and 30-2. They got a #1 seed. Meanwhile slumping and unranked Villanova was stuck in an 8-9 game at Dayton vs. the home team. They survived, 51-49 and two weeks and a couple of days later they shot 79% in beating Georgetown 66-64 to win the national championship. 1986: On 1/14 North Carolina, Michigan, Duke, Syracuse , Memphis and Oklahoma were all undefeated. UNC was ranked #1 at 16-0. But they were only 26-5 and ranked #8 on 3/11. Duke at 32-2 was #1. Michigan was 27-4 and #5, UNC #8 at 26-5, Syracuse #9 at 25-5 Memphis #12 at 27-5 and Oklahoma #17/#15 at 26-8. Louisville had been #18 at only 9-4 on 1/14 and #7 at 26-7 on 3/11. They were a #2 seed, Duke #1. North Carolina was a #3 seed and lost to Louisville in the Sweet 16. But the Cardinals beat Duke for the title 72-69 as freshman Pervis Ellison made two free throws to clinch it with no teammates to keep him company on the line. 1987: UNLV was 14-0 and #1 on 1/13. Iowa was 15-0 and #2. Then came UNC at 13-1, Indiana at 12-1 and Syracuse at 14-0. On March 10 the Runnin’ Rebels were still #1 at 33-1. UNC (29-3) and Indiana (24-4) shared the #2/#3 spots. Iowa was 27-4 and #6/#7. SU was 26-6 and had tumbled to #10. UNLV, Indiana and UNC all got #1 seeds. The Rebels lost to Indiana in the semis. SU was a 2 seed. We all know what happened. It again came down to a freshman big man at the line with no teammates for moral support Derrick Coleman missed and Keith Smart made his big shot. 1988: Arizona at 14-1 was #1 on 1/12. Oklahoma at 14-0 was #3, (behind 11-1 USC). Kansas, dealing with many injuries, was 11-3 and #16. In the 3/15 poll, Temple had risen to #1 at 29-1 with Arizona second at 31-2, Purdue #3 at 27-3 and Oklahoma #4 at 30-3. Kansas had fallen completely out of the rankings. The Jayhawks, at 21-11, had fallen completely out of the rankings. They got a #6 seed while Purdue, Temple, Arizona and Oklahoma were 1 seeds. The Wildcats and Sooners met in the semifinals and most people thought that was the game that would decide #1. But Kansa beat Oklahoma in the final, 83-79. 1989: Duke was on top at 13-0 on 1/17 with Illinois #2 at 15-0. Michigan was 14-2 and #5/#6. On 3/14 Arizona had risen to #1 at 27-3 while Duke had faded to 24-7 and #7/#9. Illinois was 27-4 and #3. Michigan was 24-7 and #10. Duke was a 2 seed and Michigan a 3 seed. The Blue Devils were upset by Seton Hall in the semi-finals and Michigan was barely able to hold off the Pirates, 80-79 in overtime for the title. 1990: Kansas was #1 at 18-0 on 1/16, just ahead of Georgetown and Oklahoma, both of which were undefeated. UNLV was meandering along at 10-3 and #9. On 3/13, Oklahoma was #1 at 26-4 and UNLV had risen to 29-5, #2. Kansas had slipped to #5 at 29-4 and Georgetown 23-6 and #8. It was a year when everybody got dinged up a bit. The Rebels and the Sooners got #1 seeds. Kansas was a #2 seed. UNLV crushed Duke 103-73 for the national title. Kansas had lost in the second round to UCLA. 1991: The Rebels were rolling along at 11-0 and #1 on 1/15. It was the same at 30-0 on 3/12. People were wondering if they might be the greatest team ever- until Duke took them down 79-77 in the national semifinals. They then beat Kansas 72-65 in the final. The Blue Devils had been #9/#12 on 1/15, and #6 at 26-7 on 3/12. They’d been a 2 seed. (Source: the ESPN College Basketball Encyclopedia) Adding in the data from 1992 onward, we have: # of losses from this point on: 0- 7 times 1- 8 times 2- 18 times 3- 10 times 4- 8 times 5- 5 times 6- 3 times 7- 2 times 8- 1 time 10- 1 time 1949-2011 is 63 years inclusive so we have a 1 in 9, (11% chance of winding up undefeated based on this. But since the 7 undefeated national champions were all from 1956-75 I suspect the chances are a lot less than that. The average number of losses has been 3. SU hasn’t finished a season with only three losses since 1935. Ranking in the last poll, (if there were different rankings the two polls, I used the higher one): 1- 31 times 2- 12 times 3- 5 times 4- 2 times 5- 2 times 6- 2 times 7- 3 times 8- 2 times 11- 1 time 12- 1time 16- 1time Unranked -1 time We have a 1 in 2 chance, (49.2%) of finishing #1 in the final poll. Seeding in NCAA tournament: 1- 23 times 2- 6 times 3- 1 time 4- 1 time 5- 1 time 8- 1 time The tournament has been seeded for 33 years so we have a 2 in 3 chance, (69.7%) of being a #1 seed. How they finished: National Champion- 17 times Runner-up- 7 times Final Four- 12 times Elite 8- 7 times Sweet 16- 8 times Round of 32- 6 times Round of 64- 3 times NIT- 1 time (and it was their preference) Stayed home- 3 (probation) That’s 36 Final Fours in 63 years (57.1%) and 17 National championships (27.0%) A 27% chance of winning a national championship. I’ll take it. [/QUOTE]

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