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Message: [QUOTE="IthacaMatt, post: 2370812, member: 405"] The following is based on five years of data, I believe, in the linked article. I saw another article like this the other day that was for 12 years of college football data, and the success rate for end-of-game kicks was around 20%. These are the numbers from the linked article: "For standard onside kicks, the success rate is around 18 percent; for surprise onside kicks, it is around 42 percent." A "surprise" onside kick would be one that takes place [I]other [/I]than in the later part of the 4th quarter when a team is behind. For example, didn't one team do a surprise onside kick at the start of the second half in a recent Super Bowl? That would be a "surprise" onside kick - one other than at the end of the game. [URL="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/varsity-numbers/2011/varsity-numbers-fourth-and-15"]FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Varsity Numbers: Fourth-and-15[/URL] [/QUOTE]