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Message: [QUOTE="Cuse181, post: 4092008, member: 8295"] We’re talking about two different things. College basketball variables change massively year to year, that includes players leaving, players coming in, injuries etc. To apply any sample based statistic methodology does a massive disservice to the difficulty of winning and winning consistently. Beyond that, expectations in a qualitative sense are very different from expectations in a quantitative sense. You can apply a confidence interval to an estimation and assume Syracuse could win 18-23 games based historical results, but there is a massive jump that needs to be taken if you want to walk from win total assumptions to eventual seeding. That is where the difference lies, people can mathematically expect 25 wins, that doesn’t mean they can qualitatively expect a top 3 seed, and I’d argue that has only been a couple brief times in history where the consensus has been that a Syracuse team should be a top 3 seed pre-season. [/QUOTE]