BET Projections Vol 10.0

[Marsh01]

I updated the standings showing last nights results. Cincinnati moves into 4th place (they would win the 3 way mini-conference tiebreaker with Georgetown and South Florida if the season ended today).

Syracuse has locked up a double bye, ND and Marquette have all but locked up double byes which leaves one spot open. Basically there are only 4 teams that have a shot. Cincinnati, Georgetown, South Florida and Louisville (long shot for Louisville as last night was a damaging loss). Cincy has USF, Marquette and Villanova left. Gtown has Villanova, ND and Marquette left and USF has Cincinnati, Louisville and WVU left.

The battle for the 8-9 spot (which is who we would play in the Thursday game assuming DePaul or Providence dont win 2 games) come down to these 4 teams and who they play.

7. Louisville 9-6 (Pitt - USF - Syracuse)
8. Seton Hall 8-8 (Rutgers - DePaul)
9. Uconn 7-8 (Syracuse - Providence - Pitt)
10.West Virginia 7-8 (Marquette - DePaul - USF)

Seton Hall has only 2 games left and should win them both to put them at 10-8 and safely in the top 8. Marquette can acccomplish 2 things tonight by beating WVU. One is they would clinch the double bye and two is they would all but eliminate WVU from not paying on Tuesday.

My best guess is that we will probably have two of these 3 teams in the 8-9 game on Wednesday. Louisville, Seton Hall or Uconn. Seeing that Seton Hall will probably win out and finish ahead of these teams it looks like we probably will be playing Uconn or Louisville in the noon game on Thursday.

FIRST ROUND - TUESDAY MARCH 6TH

AFTERNOON SESSION
#9 UCONN VS. #16 DEPAUL (NOON - ESPN2)
#12 PITTSBURGHVS. #13 RUTGERS (2:30 ESPN2)

NIGHT SESSION
#10 WESTVIRGINIA VS. #15 PROVIDENCE (7:00 ESPNU)
#11 ST. JOHNS VS. #14 VILLANOVA (9:30 ESPNU)
__________________________________________________
SECOND ROUND - WEDNESDAY MARCH 7TH

AFTERNOON SESSION
#9 UCONN - #16 DEPAUL WINNER VS. #8 SETON HALL (NOON ESPN)
#12 PITTSBURGH - #13 RUTGERS WINNER VS. #5 GEORGETOWN (2:30 ESPN)

NIGHT SESSION
#10 WESTVIRGINIA - #15 PROVIDENCE WINNER VS. #7 LOUISVILLE (7:00 ESPN)
#11 ST. JOHNS - #14 VILLANOVA WINNER VS. #6 SOUTH FLORIDA (9:30 ESPN)
_________________________________________

QUARTERFINALS - THURSDAY MARCH 8TH

AFTERNOON SESSION
#9 UCONN - #16 DEPAUL - #8 SETON HALL WINNER VS. #1 SYRACUSE (NOON ESPN)
#12 PITTSBURGH - #13 RUTGERS - #5 GEORGETOWN VS. #4 CINCINNATI (2:30 ESPN)

NIGHT SESSION
#10 WESTVIRGINIA - #15 PROVIDENCE - #7 LOUISVILLE WINNER VS #2 NOTRE DAME (7:00 ESPN)
#11 ST. JOHNS- # 14 VILLANOVA - #6 SOUTH FLORIDAWINNER VS. #3 MARQUETTE (9:30 ESPN)

This week’s games in conference:

Friday
Marquette @ West Virginia (9:00 pm)

Saturday
Notre Dame @ St. Johns (Noon)
Villanova @ Georgetown (2:00 pm)
Providence @ DePaul (2:00 pm)
Rutgers @ Seton Hall (5:00 pm)
Syracuse @ Uconn (9:00 pm)

Sunday
Cincinnati @ South Florida (Noon)
Pittsburgh @ Louisville (2:00 pm)

CONFERENCE STANDINGS

1. SYRACUSE 15-1
2. NOTRE DAME 12-3
3. MARQUETTE 12-3
4. CINCINNATI 10-5 DOUBLE BYE INTO THURSDAYS QUARTERFINALS

5. GEORGETOWN 10-5
6. SOUTH FLORIDA 10-5
7. LOUISVILLE 9-6
8. SETON HALL 8-8 SINGLE BYE INTO WEDNESDAYS ROUND

9. UCONN 7-8
10. WEST VIRGINIA 7-8
11.ST. JOHNS 5-10
12. PITTSBURGH 4-11
13. RUTGERS 4-11
14. VILLANOVA 4-11
15. PROVIDENCE 2-13
16. DEPAUL 2-13

 

[AccuRater]

Hey Marsh, great stuff as always. Thanks. I "like" it.

Admins, please pin these. They are useful references. Damn shame when they get pushed down off the front page.

 

[longtimefan]

Could the winner of tonight's Louisville-Cincinnati game move into the Top 4?

 

[Marsh01]

Could the winner of tonight's Louisville-Cincinnati game move into the Top 4?

I think I have it right.

If Louisville wins tonight then the 4-5-6 standings are

4. Georgetown
5. South florida
6. Lousville

If Cincinnati wins tonight then the 4-5-6 standings are

4. Cincinnati
5. Georgetown
6. South Florida

Lots will change because Cincy/Louisville still have to play USF. USF could fall no lower than 7 I believe because they beat Seton Hall head to head already this season. This is assuming that they dont win another conference game.

 

[CuseCrew08]

I'm looking to buy BET tickets, what do we need to do to lock in the #1 seed? I would hate to buy afternoon tickets and they have us get the #2 seed somehow...

 

[Frozen]

I'm looking to buy BET tickets, what do we need to do to lock in the #1 seed? I would hate to buy afternoon tickets and they have us get the #2 seed somehow...

To clinch the #1 seed, either SU has to win one more game or ND has to lose one. It's a near certainty to happen

 

[CuseCrew08]

Thanks Frozen!

 

[orangecuse]

To clinch the #1 seed, either SU has to win one more game or ND has to lose one. It's a near certainty to happen

Quite possible, certainly, but near certainty...hmmn...I guess I'm just a bit more guarded.

 

[Marsh01]

changes made reflecting last night above with breakdowns

 

[jdubs30]

I want to avoid UConn at all costs; seeing them 3 times in a 3 or 4 week span would be less than ideal.

 

[sutomcat]

I updated the standings showing last nights results. Cincinnati moves into 4th place (they would win the 3 way mini-conference tiebreaker with Georgetown and South Florida if the season ended today).

Syracuse has locked up a double bye, ND and Marquette have all but locked up double byes which leaves one spot open. Basically there are only 4 teams that have a shot. Cincinnati, Georgetown, South Florida and Louisville (long shot for Louisville as last night was a damaging loss). Cincy has USF, Marquette and Villanova left. Gtown has Villanova, ND and Marquette left and USF has Cincinnati, Louisville and WVU left.

The battle for the 8-9 spot (which is who we would play in the Thursday game assuming DePaul or Providence dont win 2 games) come down to these 4 teams and who they play.

Louisville (Pitt - USF - Syracuse)
Seton Hall (Rutgers - DePaul)
Uconn (Syracuse - Providence - Pitt)
West Virginia (Marquette - DePaul - USF)

Seton Hall has only 2 games left and should win them both to put them at 10-8 and safely in the top 8. Marquette can acccomplish 2 things tonight by beating WVU. One is they would clinch the double bye and two is they would all but eliminate WVU from not paying on Tuesday.

My best guess is that we will probably have two of these 3 teams in the 8-9 game on Wednesday. Louisville, Seton Hall or Uconn. Seeing that Seton Hall will probably win out and finish ahead of these teams it looks like we probably will be playing Uconn or Louisville in the noon game on Thursday.

FIRST ROUND - TUESDAY MARCH 6TH

AFTERNOON SESSION
#9 UCONN VS. #16 DEPAUL (NOON - ESPN2)
#12 PITTSBURGHVS. #13 RUTGERS (2:30 ESPN2)

NIGHT SESSION
#10 WESTVIRGINIA VS. #15 PROVIDENCE (7:00 ESPNU)
#11 ST. JOHNS VS. #14 VILLANOVA (9:30 ESPNU)
__________________________________________________
SECOND ROUND - WEDNESDAY MARCH 7TH

AFTERNOON SESSION
#9 UCONN - #16 DEPAUL WINNER VS. #8 SETON HALL (NOON ESPN)
#12 PITTSBURGH - #13 RUTGERS WINNER VS. #5 GEORGETOWN (2:30 ESPN)

NIGHT SESSION
#10 WESTVIRGINIA - #15 PROVIDENCE WINNER VS. #7 LOUISVILLE (7:00 ESPN)
#11 ST. JOHNS - #14 VILLANOVA WINNER VS. #6 SOUTH FLORIDA (9:30 ESPN)
_________________________________________

QUARTERFINALS - THURSDAY MARCH 8TH

AFTERNOON SESSION
#9 UCONN - #16 DEPAUL - #8 SETON HALL WINNER VS. #1 SYRACUSE (NOON ESPN)
#12 PITTSBURGH - #13 RUTGERS - #5 GEORGETOWN VS. #4 CINCINNATI (2:30 ESPN)

NIGHT SESSION
#10 WESTVIRGINIA - #15 PROVIDENCE - #7 LOUISVILLE WINNER VS #2 NOTRE DAME (7:00 ESPN)
#11 ST. JOHNS- # 14 VILLANOVA - #6 SOUTH FLORIDAWINNER VS. #3 MARQUETTE (9:30 ESPN)

This week’s games in conference:

Friday
Marquette @ West Virginia (9:00 pm)

Saturday
Notre Dame @ St. Johns (Noon)
Villanova @ Georgetown (2:00 pm)
Providence @ DePaul (2:00 pm)
Rutgers @ Seton Hall (5:00 pm)
Syracuse @ Uconn (9:00 pm)

Sunday
Cincinnati @ South Florida (Noon)
Pittsburgh @ Louisville (2:00 pm)

CONFERENCE STANDINGS

1. SYRACUSE 15-1
2. NOTRE DAME 12-3
3. MARQUETTE 12-3
4. CINCINNATI 10-5 DOUBLE BYE INTO THURSDAYS QUARTERFINALS

5. GEORGETOWN 10-5
6. SOUTH FLORIDA 10-5
7. LOUISVILLE 9-6
8. SETON HALL 8-8 SINGLE BYE INTO WEDNESDAYS ROUND

9. UCONN 7-8
10. WEST VIRGINIA 7-8
11.ST. JOHNS 5-10
12. PITTSBURGH 4-11
13. RUTGERS 4-11
14. VILLANOVA 4-11
15. PROVIDENCE 2-13
16. DEPAUL 2-13

Nice work as always Marsh. By quirk of the schedule, we play UConn and UL twice late in the regular season and now, against all odds, we will likely play one of them a 3rd time in the span of a month.

If this holds, it means after Thursday night of the BET, we would played 4 of our last 7 games against either UConn or UL. How messed up is that in a league with 32 members (or whatever the number is today)?

 

[Marsh01]

I want to avoid UConn at all costs; seeing them 3 times in a 3 or 4 week span would be less than ideal.

unfortunately (or fortunately depending on how you look at it) this probably will become a reality in 2 weeks

 

[Marsh01]

Nice work as always Marsh. By quirk of the schedule, we play UConn and UL twice late in the regular season and now, against all odds, we will likely play one of them a 3rd time in the span of a month. That means after Thursday night of the BET, we might well have played 4 of our last 7 games against either UConn or UL.

Yes TC that is pretty bizarre. Before last nights Louiwsville/Cincy game I was playing around with the numbers/teams, etc and it hit me then what you said assuming Luoisville lost. The 8/9 vs. 1 game has not been kind to the #1 seeds in the past couple of years.

 

[orangecuse]

If that held to form...Marquette appears to have the easiest quarterfinal game.

Just hate the noon game...think I would rather get the #2 seed and play at 7.

 

[Marsh01]

If that held to form...Marquette appears to have the easiest quarterfinal game.

Just hate the noon game...think I would rather get the #2 seed and play at 7.

Well they try to give an advantage to the #1 seed and the noon game means the most rest before the semi-finals the next night. I agree though, I hate the noon game on Thursday.

 

[moqui]

it's gonna really suck seeing UConn and Louisville in that 8/9 game knowing we are going to have to face one of our long time nemeses for the third time in a season

on the other hand, it will be nice to hang 3 quick Ls on the Cards after that long losing streak . . . and it is always nice to kick the Huskies out of New York.

 

[BlackSquirrels]

It appears to me that the most likely outcome is Louisville finishing at least 11-7 (wins at home over Pitt and USF) for 7th place and Seton Hall finishing 10-8 for 8th place. Also, Louisville owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Hall in case they are the only two teams to finish at 10-8.

 

[BleedsOrange44]

Remember in 2003 where Syracuse beat a rival 3 times for the first time in their history? It was Georgetown then. Is it possible Syracuse does that again but with UConn this time considering the way the BET bracket is looking? Would be pretty cool to see.

 

[JohnCuse44]

The curse of the double bi

Has a team with a double bi ever one this thing? I hate this system.

 

[sutomcat]

Remember in 2003 where Syracuse beat a rival 3 times for the first time in their history? It was Georgetown then. Is it possible Syracuse does that again but with UConn this time considering the way the BET bracket is looking? Would be pretty cool to see.

A Thursday afternoon matchup of Syracuse and UConn would have to be one of the worse scenarios possible for BET scalpers. Syracuse doesn't play the first two days, the game is at noon (hardest slot to sell tickets for) and no matter what, one of the big two for ticket demand is gone before Friday.

With that setup, the Friday night ticket that is usually the hottest of the tourney will have only decent demand if SU beats UConn, and low demand if UConn were to defeat Syracuse. The other schools likely to play on Friday (Marquette, ND, UC, Georgetown, USF) do not draw flies.