Big East Bubble Teams 5 in, 5 to Watch

[Niastri]

The BET format is designed to help give the bubble teams extra victories in order to get into the Big Dance. I said this when they first changed the format, and I think the results the last few years have proven that it works.

This year, Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown, Louisville, and Notre Dame are locks.

I don't think the Big East has been significantly better, but we have gotten significantly more tournament teams since we let the lower seeded bubble teams get additional wins vs lower level competition. I honestly think the morons on the Committee read "team won first round in BET" and make that the little oomph to get the last Big East teams into the tournament. They are still crappy teams, but they are a little less crappy with 21 wins and 10-9 against Big East competition rather than 20 wins and .500 in conference.

The same thing is going to give crappy teams Cincinnati, South Florida, UConn, West Virginia and Seton Hall the chance to win an extra game or two and play their way in.

Cinci (20-9, 10-6 BE) has a terrible SOS but a pretty Big East record. (SOS 108 in the strong Big East means a terrible preseason schedule. Amazingly weak. Funny Syracuse gets panned about our schedule when we have conference teams playing NINE nonconference opponents RPI 200 or worse.) Cincinnati needs a win against Marquette and one more win against Villanova or first round win to secure a bid. They may need to win three games to get in. Losses to Presbyterian (RPI 245!?) St Johns and Rutgers count as bad losses and they have no good out of conference wins. In this era of ooc wins counting more than even the best conference wins, this is the kiss of death. A 23 win season will get them a low seed, however. Win out the regular season and win 2 games and they are in the conversation for a decent seed.

South Florida (17-11, 11-5 BE) has been a shock this season in that they have a winning record in the Big East. They lost three bad losses in the preseason, but have no bad losses in conference, and wins over 5 top100 RPI teams in the conference season. Their SOS (25) is good, though, with no losses coming outside the top200, unlike Cincinnati, who will be competing against them in the desire to cap Big East bids. South Florida has five money wins to go with those three bad losses, and tough games against @Louisville and West Virginia give them a shot to clinch before the BET. If they beat an also ran in the conference tournament, they can move up to a decent seed, in spite of their average record. If they split the last two games of the season, they need two wins in NY to overcome their regular season record.

UConn (17-11, 7-9 BE) has the hardest schedule in the college game this season. They have a solid 30th ranking in the RPI, and money wins against 8 teams against a conference loss @Rutgers. They have a bad record, but nobody can say they haven't played a tough schedule, and with decent success. Some people think they are in already and assured a decent seed. They definitely have to win a few more, but their schedule is made for them to get to .500 in conference and get a shot at easy BET wins to get into the tourney. Providence and Pitt don't scare anybody this year, but two more wins and a win in the BET gets UConn in without worry. Any losses before Syracuse will make it a very stressful selection show. SOS is usually reported by ranking, but even if they are the number one SOS going into the Syracuse game in the BET, their RPI can go up with a loss if we improve their SOS by the formula.

West Virginia (17-12, 7-9 BE) has to win a lot to get in. Their SOS (9) is like UConn's, rock solid. They have 8 money wins vs 2 bad losses, including a road conference loss to St. Johns. Assuming they beat a bad Depaul team, the South Florida game determines whether they get to .500 in conference with a chance to play their way into the NCAA tournament with wins in the BET. If they end the regular season with 19 wins and with a top10 SOS, they are certainly in. The committee has been ridiculous in rewarding SOS over actual accomplishments in recent years.

Seton Hall (19-10, 8-9 BE) was once the RPI 4 team in the country. Syracuse then embarrassed them in the Dome and the Pirates haven't been the same since then. They still have a good chance of making the dance, with 8 wins and no bad losses ooc. They lost to Nova and Rutgers, and wish they could have either of those back. But, with a good SOS (34) and an easy win over Depaul, they will be 20 wins and .500 in conference with one win in the BET securing a bid.

Of these, UConn and Seton Hall probably need the fewest wins to confirm bids, but with a little luck, the worst teams in the Big East lay down and we get the wins to break the 8 big barrier again. The conference by chance has very few games placing bubble teams against each other the last two games of the season. Most of the games remaining for the bubble teams are against the top teams or bottom dweller teams. The exception is:

South Florida-West Virginia 3/3

The last week of the regular season is set up for the Big East to get a few more teams over the bubble and into the tournament. Combined with the double bye system that helps these teams get into the tournament, 8 teams seems a lock and a 9th or 10th Big East teams seams a possibility this year.

This time I hope the conference does us a little better in their showing.

 

[Niastri]

Lunardi thinks ten big east teams make it, but several losses have hurt the chances of that happening.

 

[Niastri]

For once, the bubble teams came through as underdogs and made some great improvements to their chances. Cinci and USF have had spotty at best resumes, greatly improved by their wins today.

Cinci beating Marquette earns them a top10 RPI victory and puts them firmly into the dance. Losing to both Nova and their first round BET game could knock them out, but for now they are definitely in, as their RPI will pop a bunch with this win, and it puts them at 11 Big East wins. Their bad losses still hurt, as does their RPI, but they gave themselves a huge boost today.

USF was already probably in, because of their high SOS and decent RPI. However, they needed this very good win on the road to lead their resume. They are definitely in if they can beat West Virginia in their season finale, but I think they probably could lose to WVU and go 1-1 in the BET and still get a low seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Great in conference day for the Big East. That said, who cares about their long term prospects? This years performance means money in our pockets for our continued performance as every game the Big East plays counts as a share of the huge money maker that is the Big Dance. After next year, a lousy Big East is to our advantage, but til then, we need to cheer for our current conference's performance.

 

[jncuse]

Your theory on the extra round helping totally wrong. (the rest of your analysis was solid) As I said in the other thread-- a BET bubble team playing in the first round, can add nothing to its resume that the committee will be looking at by winning, but can certainly hurt itself by losing.

Why do they take the risk? $$$

Last year, 11 teams were locks to get in before the BET. There has never been a team that put itslef over the top by winning the first round of the BET. Only team in recent times to play itself in to the tourny was Cuse and Notre Dame, and that was because of multiple top tier victories.

 

[Niastri]

Every year some team plays its way into the NCAA tournament by winning "One more Game!" at the BET. However, there also are 10 teams in other conferences that do the same thing, and some conference winners that make it in spite of their resume. Mr. McNamara could teach about that.

The bubble is incredibly mutable. Every win or loss changes the RPI and the Sagarin, and the Pomeroy and even the Polls.

If you think that one game doesn't matter, and thus the BET doesn't matter, you are foolishly mistaken.

 

[jncuse]

Every year some team plays its way into the NCAA tournament by winning "One more Game!" at the BET. However, there also are 10 teams in other conferences that do the same thing, and some conference winners that make it in spite of their resume. Mr. McNamara could teach about that.

The bubble is incredibly mutable. Every win or loss changes the RPI and the Sagarin, and the Pomeroy and even the Polls.

If you think that one game doesn't matter, and thus the BET doesn't matter, you are foolishly mistaken.

DId I say the BET did not matter? No - I noted that Cuse and Notre Dame did play there way in recently.

I only commented on the ridiculous notion that you are claiming that wins in the first round of the BET add to a team's resume. Wins in the seoncd and third round absolutely can put teams over the top because they can be quality wins. And its a win-win, when it is two quality teams.

But the first round can only knock a team off the bubble, not put them over the top. Beating Depaul, Rutgers, St john's, Villanova or Providence adds zero to your resume. They are pure nuisance game, that can only hurt you.

When the only positive from winning a game is that you avoided a bad loss, the system that created that matchup is not helping you.

 

[Niastri]

JNcuse, you are making a very fine bone of contention.

The bubble is named such because of how likely a team is to move up or down based on not only its wins or losses BUT ALSO THE WINS AND LOSSES OF THOSE WHO ARE ALSO ON THE BUBBLE!

A win over a top200 team in the RPI might not be huge, but we are talking about the Idiots over on the committee who actually make the decision.

To suggest a win over a crappy team like DePaul won't help is disingenuous. Of course they don't help, but the Big East Prepared for that. They give easy wins so that they can push on the bubble.

Losing to the crappy last four of the conference is still better than losing to Presbyterian College, but if you are already on the bubble...