Biggest Factor Pointing To A Close Game

[anomander]

No it's not the emergence of Terrel Hunt, or even the expected hot and humid conditions inside a packed Carrier Dome.

It's the betting line. We have something called reverse line movement going on right now, which is red alert to sharp bettors. 92% of bettors are on Clemson, but still the line went down from 14.5 to 13.5 meaning a small percentage of sharps have big money on Syracuse. It's a good side to be on, now let's hope we can get a win, i'm done with moral victories.

 

[Crusty]

No it's not the emergence of Terrel Hunt, or even the expected hot and humid conditions inside a packed Carrier Dome.

It's the betting line. We have something called reverse line movement going on right now, which is red alert to sharp bettors. 92% of bettors are on Clemson, but still the line went down from 14.5 to 13.5 meaning a small percentage of sharps have big money on Syracuse. It's a good side to be on, now let's hope we can get a win, i'm down with moral victories.

Reverse line movement! Ayeyah!

 

[rocklloyd]

The sports books could just be balancing the action

 

[anomander]

The sports books could just be balancing the action

that's what it is. if 92% of the people are betting Clemson you would assume the line would move up.

reverse line movement
Web definitions

1. Bettors that monitor how the public is betting on a game look for rare occurrences where the line moves towards the public instead of against it, known as reverse line movement. ...

 

[rocklloyd]

that's what it is. if 92% of the people are betting Clemson you would assume the line would move up.

reverse line movement
Web definitions

1. Bettors that monitor how the public is betting on a game look for rare occurrences where the line moves towards the public instead of against it, known as reverse line movement. ...

2 things could be happening in a reverse line movement, sports books attempting to balance the action as I mentioned above, or as you mentioned the sharp money betting on the underdog which is good news for us. Maybe someone knows something about an injury or something else.

 

[All4SU]

No it's not the emergence of Terrel Hunt, or even the expected hot and humid conditions inside a packed Carrier Dome.

It's the betting line. We have something called reverse line movement going on right now, which is red alert to sharp bettors. 92% of bettors are on Clemson, but still the line went down from 14.5 to 13.5 meaning a small percentage of sharps have big money on Syracuse. It's a good side to be on, now let's hope we can get a win, i'm done with moral victories.

Yeah, it really seems like Vegas is betting on SU beating the spread, letting the money accumulate on one side.

 

[anomander]

Yeah, it really seems like Vegas is betting on SU beating the spread, letting the money accumulate on one side.

more likely there is a small % of people who have a ton of money on Syracuse (sharps)

 

[007]

Yeah, it really seems like Vegas is betting on SU beating the spread, letting the money accumulate on one side.

If Vegas bookmakers ever thought that way, there would be no Vegas. Vegas only carries about equalizing the bets and making money on the Vig

 

[All4SU]

If Vegas bookmakers ever thought that way, there would be no Vegas. Vegas only carries about equalizing the bets and making money on the Vig

Agreed. But if 91% of the money is on one side! and the line isn't moving, what do you think is at work?

 

[javadoc]

Agreed. But if 91% of the money is on one side! and the line isn't moving, what do you think is at work?

Love this thead for a couple reasons. I don't bet and don't kow the terminology and theory, so that angle is interesting. But then the mystery, plus bits like the govt shutdown factoid, first ACC game, full house etc... There is something in the air.

 

[PhatOrange]

I don't know betting and I don't understand the 'equaling the money' part of it. Why would they want equal money on both sides. Logically, to me, i would think they'd want 100% of the money on the losing side.

 

[anomander]

Agreed. But if 91% of the money is on one side! and the line isn't moving, what do you think is at work?

it's because the 9% on Cuse are the ones laying heavy money. the books want about even money on each side so they automatically win on the juice. usually you have to lay 10% so say you want Cuse +13 you have to lay $110 to get 100

 

[anomander]

I don't know betting and I don't understand the 'equaling the money' part of it. Why would they want equal money on both sides. Logically, to me, i would think they'd want 100% of the money on the losing side.

that would make the books a gambler. there is usually "juice" with each bet, which is usually 10%. so if they get equal money on both sides they automatically win everytime. so you can see why 92% of the public being on Clemson, and only 8% on Syracuse, but the line still going down is good for Syracuse, since usually the public side losses.

 

[Marroniac]

I don't know betting and I don't understand the 'equaling the money' part of it. Why would they want equal money on both sides. Logically, to me, i would think they'd want 100% of the money on the losing side.

Vegas works on volume, not margins.

 

[JrodCuse]

This game has to go over right? I don't see a 24-21 type game. 45-35 seems realistic.

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

http://www.collegehumor.com/picture/3754975/this-is-so-funny.

I figured you were gonna say this was the reason for optimism

 

[CuseOnly]

Agreed. But if 91% of the money is on one side! and the line isn't moving, what do you think is at work?

Big difference between 92% of the bettors and 92% of the money. No one said 92% of the money was on Clemson.

What it means as someone said above that most of the public with small dollars accumulated are on Clemson and a small number of sharps with a ton of money are on SU equalizing the line.