BlackKnight76 said it perfectly – it is going to be a rock fight.

[Crusty]

From the beginning, this game has looked like an ugly physical down-in=the=trenches war. If any game looks like a rock fight this one certainly does.

I don’t understand the smack talk (other than the fools that post it) as neither side has earned the right to talk smack. The fact is that both teams are remarkably similar, improving but very average teams. UM ranked 56th in Power Index and SU 63rd (nothing to brag about on either side). Even our mascots are less than inspiring - a small burrowing rodent and a piece of fruit!

Record: UM: 8-4 SU 6-6
Conference Record: UM 4-4 - SU 4-4
Home: UM 5-2 – SU 4-3
Away: UM 3-2 - SU 2-3
Plays Per TD: UM 26 - SU 28
Yards Per Play: UM 5.3 - SU 5.1
Yards Per Rush: UM 4.4 - SU 4.6
Yards Per Pass: 7.2 - SU 5.8

Strength of Schedule: UM ranked 40th and SU 43. (I think it can be reasonably argued that 1) UM played two more cupcakes than SU; 2) the top of both schedules were very tough for both; 3) UM probably had a tougher middle.)

The only significant difference between the two teams appears to be in pass defense where the Gophers have the clear edge. SU sells out against the run, relying on the secondary to cover in man or match-up zone. However, our secondary has been decimated by injuries presenting a big challenge. I think this is where the game will be won or lost. Most think that UM has to be successful running the ball to open up the passing game but, with our depleted secondary, I am not so sure it is not the other way around. We won’t change the way we play so it may be a game of weak against weak – their wide receivers against our secondary. Whoever wins will probably win the game.

Offense
Both run the ball well. UM averages 200 YPG rushing (34th) and SU 194 (39th). The Gophers run the ball a few more times per game than the Orange so, all in all, pretty similar results. The challenge for both is that both rushing defenses are pretty good also. It is going to be strength against strength in the run games. I don’t think either team will have much luck running the ball.

SU has the edge a bit in the passing game 180 YPG (105th) vs. 143 YPG (117th) - pretty poor for both teams. (We throw a lot of quick passes for short yardage, which are really run substitutes.)

While total offense favors SU 375 YPG (87th) vs. UM 344 YPG (108th), the scoring edge goes to the Gophers 26.4 (77th) vs. 22.8 (99th) for the Orange. This anomaly probably results from the Gophers better 3rd down conversion percentage, TOP. +3 TO margin vs. SU’s +1 and better ST play.

UM has a sophomore QB and a couple of freshmen receivers that have had an uneven season - just like us except our receivers having a tough time aren't frosh.

Defense
As I mentioned, both teams are solid against the run. However, the Gopher pass defense has been better and we are really banged up there. Our best guy (Eskridge) is injured and will not play.

Total Defense YPG: UM 371.3 (40th) - SU 369.8 (38th)
Scoring Defense PPG: UM 22.2 (26th) - SU 26.1 (59th)
Rushing Defense YPG: UM 154 – (53rd) SU - 139.7 (29th)
Passing Defense YPD: UM 217.3 (38th) - SU 230.2 (63rd)
Special Teams
FG: UM – UM 13 for 17 - SU 11 for 16
Punts Yards Avg.: UM 42.9 - SU 41.8
KO Return Avg.: UM 22.6 – SU 19.8
Punt Return Avg: UM 10.1 – SU 6.1
Return for TD: UM 2 – SU zero

This is going to be a close game just like last time. Take a look at the stats on that game and you will see they could not have been closer. We lost because we had 4 turnovers to their zero and our 1st round draft pick (RT Justin Pugh) was injured and did not play.

UM has a lot more to lose than we do. They are 8-4 and have only had 2 nine win seasons in the last 108 years and their last Big 10 Championship was 1967. As we know, they are 5-10 in bowl games inducing losses in the last five in a row. Coach Kill is in his third year, the Gophers have a new outdoor stadium - in other words no excuses. On the other hand, we have overachieved by almost every observer's analysis and if we be beat the Gophers we will probably get more credit than the achievement is really worth. Being the dog is always great because the upside is more than the downside.

Go Orange!

 

[All4SU]

Agree about the rock fight. But think the game comes down to turnovers. The team that gets more wins.

 

[Crusty]

Agree about the rock fight. But think the game comes down to turnovers. The team that gets more wins.

While there is no arguing that (highest correlation to winning). I get headaches thinking about our 4 TOs last year. Ryan had what 2 picks and a fumble in the red-zone?

 

[Dmcnabbrules]

Hickey being out last year was devestating. They have a good D line, can our line get a good push?

 

[Crusty]

While there is no arguing that (highest correlation to winning). I get headaches thinking about our 4 TOs last year. Ryan had what 2 picks and a fumble in the red-zone?

Pugh?

 

[HtownOrange]

I agree with much of your assessment. I really only differ in that our passing game improved, as did our team. We had much more to overcome this season than Minnesota. Minnesota had difficulties towards the end of their season and did not improve team wise like SU did. Nor did Minny have the issues to overcome (new HC, new staff, loss of 75% of offense production, etc.)

I agree the trenches will be a rock fight, but I tend towards SU getting more of a passing game than Minnesota and more yardage overall (probably similar rushing yards). This is the area of the offense that has improved and Minny will be one of the worst pass defenses we have faced all season. I'm not expecting a passing game clinic, but more continued improvement.

Obviously, our Orange(men) will resolve all issues on Reliant Stadium field this Friday. Here's to a win and improvement!

 

[Crusty]

I agree with much of your assessment. I really only differ in that our passing game improved, as did our team. We had much more to overcome this season than Minnesota. Minnesota had difficulties towards the end of their season and did not improve team wise like SU did. Nor did Minny have the issues to overcome (new HC, new staff, loss of 75% of offense production, etc.)

I agree the trenches will be a rock fight, but I tend towards SU getting more of a passing game than Minnesota and more yardage overall (probably similar rushing yards). This is the area of the offense that has improved and Minny will be one of the worst pass defenses we have faced all season. I'm not expecting a passing game clinic, but more continued improvement.

Obviously, our Orange(men) will resolve all issues on Reliant Stadium field this Friday. Here's to a win and improvement!

This could very well be Hunt's game to win. I worry about our secondary being so depleted though.

 

[tinyarch]

Even our mascots are less than inspiring - a small burrowing rodent and a piece of fruit!

Wait one second...Goldy won the best mascot of the year.


http://www.startribune.com/local/187777171.html

 

[tinyarch]

I agree with much of your assessment. I really only differ in that our passing game improved, as did our team. We had much more to overcome this season than Minnesota. Minnesota had difficulties towards the end of their season and did not improve team wise like SU did. Nor did Minny have the issues to overcome (new HC, new staff, loss of 75% of offense production, etc.)

I agree the trenches will be a rock fight, but I tend towards SU getting more of a passing game than Minnesota and more yardage overall (probably similar rushing yards). This is the area of the offense that has improved and Minny will be one of the worst pass defenses we have faced all season. I'm not expecting a passing game clinic, but more continued improvement.

Obviously, our Orange(men) will resolve all issues on Reliant Stadium field this Friday. Here's to a win and improvement!

Wait..what?

Minnesota had a head coach who missed three games due to seizures. Some of the local media were calling for his firing because of the seizure issue.

Minnesota had difficulties against the #1 and #6 defenses in the country. Not a surprise that few points were scored by Minnesota when they only have 3 seniors on offense.

Minnesota has played solid defense against the pass beating one of the most prolific pass offenses in San Jose State earlier in the season. You under estimate the Gopher's cornerbacks and safeties. Hageman is a first or second round draft pick as a defensive tackle. Unless your quarterback is in the top 10 nationally, I hardly think your passing will be anything the Gophers haven't seen this season.

All that being said...what we have here is two mediocre teams playing their first game of the 2014 season. It's really just the first game to get ready for spring practice. In either case, may players from both teams keep from being hurt and may you all enjoy a few cases of Guinness next Friday!!! Have fun!

 

[Crusty]

I don't think there is much here but make of it what you will.
Pass Defense Rankings
Minnesota - 40
Syracuse - 63

Syracuse opponent rankings:
Lost
Florida State -1
Clemson - 15
Pitt - 30
Penn State - 78
Georgia Tech - 87
Northwestern - 101

Won
Maryland - 36
NC State - 43
Wake Forest - 51
Tulane - 61
Boston College - 111
Wagner - NR

Minnesota opponent rankings:
Lost
Michigan State -6
Iowa - 11
Wisconsin - 12
Michigan - 62

Won
Nebraska - 22
UNLV - 32
Penn State - 78
San Jose State - 88
NM State - 96
Northwestern - 101
Indiana - 120
Western Illinois - NR

 

[Crusty]

Wait one second...Goldy won the best mascot of the year.


http://www.startribune.com/local/187777171.html

It is a rodent!

 

[tinyarch]

It is a rodent!

+2 for observation skills...

 

[BlackKnight76]

I did? I did!

 

[TheCusian]

Wait..what? Minnesota had a head coach who missed three games due to seizures. Some of the local media were calling for his firing because of the seizure issue. Minnesota had difficulties against the #1 and #6 defenses in the country. Not a surprise that few points were scored by Minnesota when they only have 3 seniors on offense. Minnesota has played solid defense against the pass beating one of the most prolific pass offenses in San Jose State earlier in the season. You under estimate the Gopher's cornerbacks and safeties. Hageman is a first or second round draft pick as a defensive tackle. Unless your quarterback is in the top 10 nationally, I hardly think your passing will be anything the Gophers haven't seen this season. All that being said...what we have here is two mediocre teams playing their first game of the 2014 season. It's really just the first game to get ready for spring practice. In either case, may players from both teams keep from being hurt and may you all enjoy a few cases of Guinness next Friday!!! Have fun!

Apparently comprehension is an issue up there. Your coach had seizures. Our entire coaching staff minus 2, are brand new. Our QB and best OL (who missed last years game vs you guys) are both playing for the Giants. Our new QB hadn't played in a game in college.

But the reason you guys did fine when Kill was out? Continuity on your staff and at key positions. We did not have that luxury.

 

[orangedave]

It is a rodent!

and ours is a fruit

 

[HtownOrange]

Wait..what?

Minnesota had a head coach who missed three games due to seizures. Some of the local media were calling for his firing because of the seizure issue.

Minnesota had difficulties against the #1 and #6 defenses in the country. Not a surprise that few points were scored by Minnesota when they only have 3 seniors on offense.

Minnesota has played solid defense against the pass beating one of the most prolific pass offenses in San Jose State earlier in the season. You under estimate the Gopher's cornerbacks and safeties. Hageman is a first or second round draft pick as a defensive tackle. Unless your quarterback is in the top 10 nationally, I hardly think your passing will be anything the Gophers haven't seen this season.

All that being said...what we have here is two mediocre teams playing their first game of the 2014 season. It's really just the first game to get ready for spring practice. In either case, may players from both teams keep from being hurt and may you all enjoy a few cases of Guinness next Friday!!! Have fun!

If you say so. I still believe Syracuse had much more adversity to overcome and we are trending up. I see Minny as levelled off. Now let's watch the kids prove us right or wrong on the field.

 

[tinyarch]

If you say so. I still believe Syracuse had much more adversity to overcome and we are trending up. I see Minny as levelled off. Now let's watch the kids prove us right or wrong on the field.

I'd love to see Syracuse rise to the top of the ACC. I hate FSU and Clemson as football teams. I absolutely agree with you that getting a new staff is tough. Check out the revolving door of coaches (either head or assistants) in Minnesota before Jerry Kill showed up. There is a clear reason why the Gophers have been a doormat for 50 years in college football.

My only contention with you is that Minnesota hasn't leveled off. We are extremely young with only two or three seniors on offense and a handful of players on defense. The redshirts we finally had this year are supposed to be solid players. We went 8-4 this year with a relatively soft schedule. Next years schedule will be harder, but we will finally start to have a crew of upper classmen playing and those guys will have had two or three years of starting experience under their belt.

I am a firm believer in Jerry Kill (as long as he can stay healthy) as he brings coaching stability and he keeps his assistants by paying them well while taking less for himself. He is doing the very same thing that Barry Alverez did in Wisconsin. He is building from the base up. I envision Minnesota being similar to Iowa and eventually trending up toward Wisconsin, but that process is a ways down the road. For now...I'm thrilled that we made a bowl. After our start to the B1G I wouldn't have guessed we'd get to play anyone. To that end...good for both programs for overachieving and finding a way to get to a bowl game. Unlike a handful of Gopher fans who seem to think we should be treated as an elite team (I generally refer to them as the Gopherhole Gestapo) I am just glad we get to make an attempt at having a 9 win season. That is rarified air for the Gophers, which is sad, but true.

I'll pop a few Guinness at game day and hope Maroon conquers Orange. After that I'll hope to have a rematch when the Gophers and Orangemen play for the National Championship in a few years!!!

 

[Crusty]

I wish we had a home and home with MN. Two evenly matched programs on the upswing.

 

[HtownOrange]

I'd love to see Syracuse rise to the top of the ACC. I hate FSU and Clemson as football teams. I absolutely agree with you that getting a new staff is tough. Check out the revolving door of coaches (either head or assistants) in Minnesota before Jerry Kill showed up. There is a clear reason why the Gophers have been a doormat for 50 years in college football.

My only contention with you is that Minnesota hasn't leveled off. We are extremely young with only two or three seniors on offense and a handful of players on defense. The redshirts we finally had this year are supposed to be solid players. We went 8-4 this year with a relatively soft schedule. Next years schedule will be harder, but we will finally start to have a crew of upper classmen playing and those guys will have had two or three years of starting experience under their belt.

I am a firm believer in Jerry Kill (as long as he can stay healthy) as he brings coaching stability and he keeps his assistants by paying them well while taking less for himself. He is doing the very same thing that Barry Alverez did in Wisconsin. He is building from the base up. I envision Minnesota being similar to Iowa and eventually trending up toward Wisconsin, but that process is a ways down the road. For now...I'm thrilled that we made a bowl. After our start to the B1G I wouldn't have guessed we'd get to play anyone. To that end...good for both programs for overachieving and finding a way to get to a bowl game. Unlike a handful of Gopher fans who seem to think we should be treated as an elite team (I generally refer to them as the Gopherhole Gestapo) I am just glad we get to make an attempt at having a 9 win season. That is rarified air for the Gophers, which is sad, but true.

I'll pop a few Guinness at game day and hope Maroon conquers Orange. After that I'll hope to have a rematch when the Gophers and Orangemen play for the National Championship in a few years!!!

I respect your position while standing by my position stated above. I am glad that your loyalty is not blind.

To clarify my position on Minny levelling off, I intended this to be limited to this season. You are correct to defend what Kill has done and believe he has built a system that can win in the future. That said, I still believe that the Orange are overall trending up over the season. Both teams are built to be perpetual winners if they can hold onto their respective staffs.

Looking forward to a good game.

 

[TampaNole]

I absolutely agree with you that getting a new staff is tough.

We cannot all be esteemed members of the BiG'nSloW.