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Message: [QUOTE="Crusty, post: 855625, member: 2265"] From the beginning, this game has looked like an ugly physical down-in=the=trenches war. If any game looks like a rock fight this one certainly does. I don’t understand the smack talk (other than the fools that post it) as neither side has earned the right to talk smack. The fact is that both teams are remarkably similar, improving but very average teams. UM ranked 56th in Power Index and SU 63rd (nothing to brag about on either side). Even our mascots are less than inspiring - a small burrowing rodent and a piece of fruit! Record: UM: 8-4 SU 6-6 Conference Record: UM 4-4 - SU 4-4 Home: UM 5-2 – SU 4-3 Away: UM 3-2 - SU 2-3 Plays Per TD: UM 26 - SU 28 Yards Per Play: UM 5.3 - SU 5.1 Yards Per Rush: UM 4.4 - SU 4.6 Yards Per Pass: 7.2 - SU 5.8 Strength of Schedule: UM ranked 40th and SU 43. (I think it can be reasonably argued that 1) UM played two more cupcakes than SU; 2) the top of both schedules were very tough for both; 3) UM probably had a tougher middle.) The only significant difference between the two teams appears to be in pass defense where the Gophers have the clear edge. SU sells out against the run, relying on the secondary to cover in man or match-up zone. However, our secondary has been decimated by injuries presenting a big challenge. I think this is where the game will be won or lost. Most think that UM has to be successful running the ball to open up the passing game but, with our depleted secondary, I am not so sure it is not the other way around. We won’t change the way we play so it may be a game of weak against weak – their wide receivers against our secondary. Whoever wins will probably win the game. [B]Offense[/B] Both run the ball well. UM averages 200 YPG rushing (34th) and SU 194 (39th). The Gophers run the ball a few more times per game than the Orange so, all in all, pretty similar results. The challenge for both is that both rushing defenses are pretty good also. It is going to be strength against strength in the run games. I don’t think either team will have much luck running the ball. SU has the edge a bit in the passing game 180 YPG (105th) vs. 143 YPG (117th) - pretty poor for both teams. (We throw a lot of quick passes for short yardage, which are really run substitutes.) While total offense favors SU 375 YPG (87th) vs. UM 344 YPG (108th), the scoring edge goes to the Gophers 26.4 (77th) vs. 22.8 (99th) for the Orange. This anomaly probably results from the Gophers better 3rd down conversion percentage, TOP. +3 TO margin vs. SU’s +1 and better ST play. UM has a sophomore QB and a couple of freshmen receivers that have had an uneven season - just like us except our receivers having a tough time aren't frosh. [B]Defense[/B] As I mentioned, both teams are solid against the run. However, the Gopher pass defense has been better and we are really banged up there. Our best guy (Eskridge) is injured and will not play. Total Defense YPG: UM 371.3 (40th) - SU 369.8 (38th) Scoring Defense PPG: UM 22.2 (26th) - SU 26.1 (59th) Rushing Defense YPG: UM 154 – (53rd) SU - 139.7 (29th) Passing Defense YPD: UM 217.3 (38th) - SU 230.2 (63rd) Special Teams FG: UM – UM 13 for 17 - SU 11 for 16 Punts Yards Avg.: UM 42.9 - SU 41.8 KO Return Avg.: UM 22.6 – SU 19.8 Punt Return Avg: UM 10.1 – SU 6.1 Return for TD: UM 2 – SU zero This is going to be a close game just like last time. Take a look at the stats on that game and you will see they could not have been closer. We lost because we had 4 turnovers to their zero and our 1st round draft pick (RT Justin Pugh) was injured and did not play. UM has a lot more to lose than we do. They are 8-4 and have only had 2 nine win seasons in the last 108 years and their last Big 10 Championship was 1967. As we know, they are 5-10 in bowl games inducing losses in the last five in a row. Coach Kill is in his third year, the Gophers have a new outdoor stadium - in other words no excuses. On the other hand, we have overachieved by almost every observer's analysis and if we be beat the Gophers we will probably get more credit than the achievement is really worth. Being the dog is always great because the upside is more than the downside. Go Orange! [/QUOTE]

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