moqui
generational talent
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it's a metric that ranks all the players in the draft, first introduced in the late, lamented Basketball Prospectus. .
Doolittle described ATH for ESPN last year:
In a nutshell, the system estimates how well a player's amateur production will translate based on certain athletic factors, such as foul-drawing ability, rebounding, shot-blocking and steals. This method also is used to project a possible aging pattern for each player, based on his age upon entering the league and similarities to past players with similar athletic traits.
Using ATH, I've forecast the WARP (wins above replacement level) totals for the first four NBA seasons for each player in the lottery. Then I've applied the dollars per win rule of thumb to determine the player's value in dollars. (The actual amount I use is between $2.3 and $2.4 million per win.)
Some players project as below replacement level; the financial value of these players is then assumed to be the league minimum. By plugging in estimates of each player's slot-mandated salary, we can measure how much of a value each player promises to have.
His rankings for the 2013 draft class are out now. He adds this description:
(Each player's prospect score (PROS) is denoted in parenthesis. Any score more than 100 denotes a deserving top-10 pick. Late first-rounders and early second-rounders -- always a gray area -- rate in the 65-75 range. Players fall off the draft board at about 50.)
This is what he has to say about MCW, whom he has ranked 8th overall, just behind Trey Burke and just ahead of Otto Porter:
8. Michael Carter-Williams, Syracuse (107.3)
Carter-Williams has the edge on Burke on the defensive end, where Synergy gave him the third-best score against isolations of any player in the draft.
I contacted Doolittle last night on Twitter and asked him about Southerland. His response:
I've got Southerland at No. 36 w/ a 65.8 rating, and No. 41 in 5yr WARP. A little better than the scouts.
I forgot to ask him about Triche, but I sent him another tweet, so I'll update in the morning if he answers.
Doolittle described ATH for ESPN last year:
In a nutshell, the system estimates how well a player's amateur production will translate based on certain athletic factors, such as foul-drawing ability, rebounding, shot-blocking and steals. This method also is used to project a possible aging pattern for each player, based on his age upon entering the league and similarities to past players with similar athletic traits.
Using ATH, I've forecast the WARP (wins above replacement level) totals for the first four NBA seasons for each player in the lottery. Then I've applied the dollars per win rule of thumb to determine the player's value in dollars. (The actual amount I use is between $2.3 and $2.4 million per win.)
Some players project as below replacement level; the financial value of these players is then assumed to be the league minimum. By plugging in estimates of each player's slot-mandated salary, we can measure how much of a value each player promises to have.
His rankings for the 2013 draft class are out now. He adds this description:
(Each player's prospect score (PROS) is denoted in parenthesis. Any score more than 100 denotes a deserving top-10 pick. Late first-rounders and early second-rounders -- always a gray area -- rate in the 65-75 range. Players fall off the draft board at about 50.)
This is what he has to say about MCW, whom he has ranked 8th overall, just behind Trey Burke and just ahead of Otto Porter:
8. Michael Carter-Williams, Syracuse (107.3)
Carter-Williams has the edge on Burke on the defensive end, where Synergy gave him the third-best score against isolations of any player in the draft.
I contacted Doolittle last night on Twitter and asked him about Southerland. His response:
I've got Southerland at No. 36 w/ a 65.8 rating, and No. 41 in 5yr WARP. A little better than the scouts.
I forgot to ask him about Triche, but I sent him another tweet, so I'll update in the morning if he answers.
