Breaking down No. 2 Syracuse's zone efficiency

[BlackSquirrels]

Luke Winn watched and charted 15 game tapes to try to break down what makes SU's defense effective in this article: Breaking down No. 2 Syracuse's zone efficiency.

I tried to do something like this earlier in the season but abandoned my effort after it took me about 30 minutes to chart 8 minutes of game action.

 

[RF2044]

Wow--what an article / analysis!

 

[moqui]

Great find, BlackSquirrels. Gonna take me some time to really digest that.

When I look at the individual defensive ratings, the first question that comes to mind is whether we could take Winn's data and look at interaction effects. For example, he looks at summary defensive ratings and suggests what would be the best defensive five on the floor, but what are the unit summaries for the various combinations and do they actually track with his conclusion?

 

[44PRIDE]

Yeah, that one will need to be digested with an afternoon coffee break....or thru an afternoon visit to the head.

 

[Knicks411]

very good article

 

[moqui]

great line from JB in there: "I tell Fab all the time, a charge is really better than a blocked shot," Boeheim said. "We get the ball, they get a foul, and it keeps them from driving hard at the basket."

 

[Solitude]

That was incredibly impressive. I haven't always respected Luke Winn, but I do now

 

[armory]

Luke Winn the last 3 years has been running away with my "favorite sports journalist" award. The kid does so much work others don't even think to do, and it is always interesting stuff.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Luke Winn the last 3 years has been running away with my "favorite sports journalist" award. The kid does so much work others don't even think to do, and it is always interesting stuff.

He also gets the medium. You can do a lot more when your writing goes on the web vs on paper.

 

[mark79]

Dang. That is what I call researching your subject.

 

[MeloMyMan]

I like the part about player's shooting percentages vs Scoop, Brandon and Dion. It always seems like scoop just throws a hand up in the air and to me it didn't seem a very effective form of defense. The numbers seem to agree...

 

[mark79]

Bobby Knight said on sports center today that Syracuse's zone is the best in the history of basketball. Wow. I believe it though...

 

[moqui]

having spent some time with this article, I think we need to point out that although Winn has done a terrific job, he actually undersells the proficiency of the Orange defense. For example, he spotlights the St. John's game. In the summary of the game, SU had a defensive efficiency of 101.6 - meaning that the Jonnies would have been expected to score 101.6 points had they had 100 possessions. The thing is, the SU defense was much better than that. In building the 25 point lead, I bet the efficiency was at least in the low 90s or even in the 80s. Once the big lead was built, they stepped off the throttle and basically traded baskets for the last 12 minutes. Such has been the case all year long. The Orange dismantle a team early then just keep them at arms length the rest of the way. Many second halves of Syracuse games this year have been borderline unwatchable because of that.

I bet if you charted the defense up to the point that they ease off (and it is a noticeable point in most games), you would see a marked difference in, say, the first 28 minutes vs. the final 12 minutes. Now, maybe the fact is that they couldn't play with that intensity for an entire 40 minutes, but it is more likely that they could this year than any other because of the depth.

 

[Knicks411]

I picked a random point; CJ made a 3 with 15:35 left to make it 55-30. I counted 29 possessions over the last 15:35, which seems a little on the high side, but that's the number I got. St. Johns scored 40 points over those last 29 possessions, meaning on the first 41 (Ken pom goes with 70 possessions, so I'll use that number) they scored just 30 points, which is about .75 points per possession.

 

[moqui]

I picked a random point; CJ made a 3 with 15:35 left to make it 55-30. I counted 29 possessions over the last 15:35, which seems a little on the high side, but that's the number I got. St. Johns scored 40 points over those last 29 possessions, meaning on the first 41 (Ken pom goes with 70 possessions, so I'll use that number) they scored just 30 points, which is about .75 points per possession.

wow, that is a stunning number.

of course, it was St. Johns, but compare that defense to what Duke was able to do vs. the Johnies (although, the pro SU crowd at MSG was probably both larger and louder than what the Dukies were able to muster in their little gym)

 

[Knicks411]

Yeah; I THINK it's right. (I counted the possessions in my head, but it can't be off by that much).

I guess it makes some sense though; they scored 30 points in the first 25 minutes of the game, then scored 40 in the last 15.