Bubble Buster Conference Tournaments -- Starting this week

[jncuse]

With some conference tournaments starting this week, its time to look at some potential bubble busters:

Multi bid - Leagues

• Overall the assumption with the Power 5 + Big East, is that a team on the outside will not win given half the field is in the tourney already. Georgia may be the only recent exception, and even that was 8 years ago.
• A-10. I think the chances are good that one of St. Joes, Dayton, VCU takes care of business. But a bubble team like St. Bona or GW cannot be discounted.
• AAC - This conference is all over the bubble right now -- let's look at this one a week form now
• WCC (maybe single bid, but Zaga is right on the bubble) - St. Mary's seems best suited for an at-large, so we want them to take out Gonzaga / BYU which is not an easy task.

One Bid Leagues

Sorted by chances at an at-large.

Good Chance

• Wichita St ... Even with a weak resume, I just think this team gets in as an at-large. Rep, Early season injuries, high power ranking. I think the eye test is used more for one bid leagues than the power leagues, and I suspect they will pass
• Monmouth - They have had a few slips ups, but I think they will be hard to ignore because of wins over ND, USC, UCLA and Georgetown. I think they have good chances at an-large, especially if they lose late in that tourney.

Decent Chance

• San Diego St - 1-4 top 50, 3-7 vs top 100. The MWC is way down, but this is another good rep school, that could get in the with the "eye test"
• Ark Little Rock - Hard to ignore a team that will only have 4 losses. Only 3 games against top 100, but it went 2-1. Will that sample size be enough to give them the benefit of the doubt Wins at Tulsa, at San Diego St. Lost at Texas Tech. IMO, they deserve an at-large if they lose the confernce tourney

Limited but not no chance

• Valparaiso - Would be coming in with 6 losses only, and 3-2 record vs top 100, including a win at Oregon St. I would put Arkansas Little Rock ahread of them. Valpo may also get benefit from the eye test as they have a good rep as a really solid mid major.

I think the 5 teams bolded above are the key ones to follow over the next week or two.

No Chance : I don't think other good RPI teams like Stony Brook, Chattanooga, South Dakota St, Yale, Princeton or Akron have much of a chance. If you think differently on one team. let me know and I will start tracking those games as well.

 

[jncuse]

In terms of key start dates:

Northeast (Monmouth) - March 2

Missouri Valley (Wichita St) - March 3

WCC Tourney (St Mary's / Gonzaga / BYU) - March 4

Horizon (Valpo) - March 5

Sun Belt (Arkansas St) - March 10

 

[KaiserUEO]

If Monmouth cruised, yet lost the MAAC tourney...things could've been interesting.

Now?? no worries, 1 bid league.

 

[jncuse]

If Monmouth cruised, yet lost the MAAC tourney...things could've been interesting.

Now?? no worries, 1 bid league.

17-3 is not good but maybe not damning either. I think most bubble teams would go somewhere between 17-3 and 19-1 in this league. I doubt bubble teams could go 10-0 on the road, when the conference has a few decent teams.

With these type of resumes you never know. Remember we are essentially looking for 2 extra at larges this year. the bubble is filled with AAC and A-10 schools and the committee may give the benefit of the doubt to Monmouth over a high mid major compared to a P5.

It is one of the more fascinating resumes in a while if they slip up in the Northeast. KP rating is down to 68, which will only get worse if they lose next week.

 

[pearl31]

Hey jncuse which of these do you feel has the best shot at an at large?

Valpo, Ark LR, Monmouth, Gonzaga

 

[jncuse]

Hey jncuse which of these do you feel has the best shot at an at large?

Valpo, Ark LR, Monmouth, Gonzaga

Not sure -- I would eliminate Valpo off the top. As for the others I am not sure. And if Ark LR, Monmouth lose they take on another bad loss.

Monmouth probably has the most quality wins, but the most bad losses.
Arkansas St has 2 nice little road wins that Gonzaga does not have. They would have 3 bad losses as an large,
Gonzaga has no bad losses, but ironically the least quality of OOC wins amongst the 3.

It's a good question. Real toss up.

 

[pearl31]

Not sure -- I would eliminate Valpo off the top. As for the others I am not sure. And if Ark LR, Monmouth lose they take on another bad loss.

Monmouth probably has the most quality wins, but the most bad losses.
Arkansas St has 2 nice little road wins that Gonzaga does not have. They would have 3 bad losses as an large,
Gonzaga has no bad losses, but ironically the least quality of OOC wins amongst the 3.

It's a good question. Real toss up.

yeah I think I'd go with Gonzaga and then Ark LR...
and so another question for you: if the season ended today, do you think the WCC gets 2 bids or just the auto-bid? I just don't know what to make of St. Marys resume

 

[Cheriehoop]

I heard that one of Mommouth's highest scorers has been out since 2/16 with a hand injury requiring surgery. They lost their next game after his injury to Iona but won their last 3 but had to go to OT to beat the 5th ranked team in their conference (St Peters) while the other 2 teams were near the basement of their conference. They are up by just 1 game in the MAAC but their regular season is over. Depending on the tournament, it could get interesting if they lose. We should hope Mommouth wins their tournament and that Iona loses - the earlier the better to insure they don't get 2 teams in.

 

[jncuse]

We should hope Mommouth wins their tournament and that Iona loses - the earlier the better to insure they don't get 2 teams in.

Yep - all the teams in bold we have wanted to lose recently, but now we cheer for them in the tourney. While Iona did get in as a surprise a few years back, I think they are just too far back to be considered as an at large.

Interesting info on the injury -- if they need at an-large, that may be used against them.

 

[Jasoncuse]

I don't know if Monmouth will win their conference tourney the way they've played lately. They got smoked at home by Iona recently, used a miracle comeback to beat Rider and struggled against a terrible Niagara team yesterday. The Tourney is in Albany, so Siena could be pesky too. I think Iona will beat them if that's the Champ game, especially w/Monmouth missing their 2nd best player.

 

[jncuse]

Not a tournament game, but this was the last regular season game of ALR. A 27-3 team just loss to a 7-22 team. so it hurts them. With the bubble being AAC and A-10 heavy, I could certainly a team like this getting the benefit of the doubt . But this loss has to hurt their chances at an at-large, and my view of them that I had earlier in the thread does drop a but.

 

[jncuse]

Tourney play starts today for some teams on the bubble buster watch.

FRIDAY GAMES

 

[Knicks411]

Tourney play starts today for some teams on the bubble buster watch.

FRIDAY GAMES

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View attachment 56899

Wichita State is pretty much in no matter what, right? Monmouth is probably a lot more bubbly, but to be safe we should probably just hope they both win their tournament.

 

[jncuse]

Wichita State is pretty much in no matter what, right? Monmouth is probably a lot more bubbly, but to be safe we should probably just hope they both win their tournament.

Probably, even if it is really empty. I think they will get "eye test" treatment. The weak bubble line helps them. And I have a feeling with some of these teams that play nobody they may look at power rankings, but that is just speculation. The KP ranking is up to #8 as they maul moderate opposition.

Monmouth has struggled a bit recentlu. add a questionable loss this week + most importantly the injury referenced above. They may not get the benefit of the doubt. But then again, the bubble line is weak -- they have to find 68 worthy teams.

 

[jncuse]

Not good. Wichita St down 6. I don't want them in the at-large pool.

 

[Knicks411]

Looks like a bullet dodged here

 

[jncuse]

Wichita St struggles but wins... I guess they are just not a comfortable #1 seed...

I wasn't expecting a scare in the first bubble buster tourney game of the season!!