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Message: [QUOTE="jncuse, post: 1670856, member: 1969"] With some conference tournaments starting this week, its time to look at some potential bubble busters: [B] Multi bid - Leagues[/B] [LIST] [*]Overall the assumption with the Power 5 + Big East, is that a team on the outside will not win given half the field is in the tourney already. Georgia may be the only recent exception, and even that was 8 years ago. [*]A-10. I think the chances are good that one of St. Joes, Dayton, VCU takes care of business. But a bubble team like St. Bona or GW cannot be discounted. [*]AAC - This conference is all over the bubble right now -- let's look at this one a week form now [*]WCC (maybe single bid, but Zaga is right on the bubble) - St. Mary's seems best suited for an at-large, so we want them to take out Gonzaga / BYU which is not an easy task. [/LIST] [B]One Bid Leagues [/B] Sorted by chances at an at-large. [B][/B] [I][U]Good Chance[/U][/I] [LIST] [*][B]Wichita St[/B] ... Even with a weak resume, I just think this team gets in as an at-large. Rep, Early season injuries, high power ranking. I think the eye test is used more for one bid leagues than the power leagues, and I suspect they will pass [*][B]Monmouth - [/B]They have had a few slips ups, but I think they will be hard to ignore because of wins over ND, USC, UCLA and Georgetown. I think they have good chances at an-large, especially if they lose late in that tourney. [/LIST] [I][U]Decent Chance[/U][/I] [LIST] [*][B]San Diego St[/B] - 1-4 top 50, 3-7 vs top 100. The MWC is way down, but this is another good rep school, that could get in the with the "eye test" [*][B]Ark Little Rock[/B] - Hard to ignore a team that will only have 4 losses. Only 3 games against top 100, but it went 2-1. Will that sample size be enough to give them the benefit of the doubt Wins at Tulsa, at San Diego St. Lost at Texas Tech. IMO, they deserve an at-large if they lose the confernce tourney [/LIST] [I][U]Limited but not no chance[/U][/I] [LIST] [*][B]Valparaiso [/B]- Would be coming in with 6 losses only, and 3-2 record vs top 100, including a win at Oregon St. I would put Arkansas Little Rock ahread of them. Valpo may also get benefit from the eye test as they have a good rep as a really solid mid major. [/LIST] I think the 5 teams bolded above are the key ones to follow over the next week or two. [I][U]No Chance :[/U][/I] I don't think other good RPI teams like Stony Brook, Chattanooga, South Dakota St, Yale, Princeton or Akron have much of a chance. If you think differently on one team. let me know and I will start tracking those games as well. [/QUOTE]

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