Bubble Team Selection (Feb 27)

[jncuse]

Based on the bracket project matrix here are the last eight in and the first eight out.

LAST IN
Miss St
Northwestern
Cincinnati
Xavier
Washington
Texas
Miami
Colorado St

LAST OUT
Arizona
NC ST
St Joes
Dayton
South Florida
Central Florida
VCU
Illinois

There will be bracket busters (maybe 3 or 4). I hope more as this group is terribe

Based on right now OR by selection Sunday, what teams do you think will be moving to the out or moving to the In.

 

[iommi]

Seton Hall isn't even on last 8 out? I know their loss to Rutgers hurt but I'd have thought they'd be there...

 

[texascpa]

I think VCU gets in.

 

[Garbs]

Seton Hall isn't even on last 8 out? I know their loss to Rutgers hurt but I'd have thought they'd be there...

I think it is because they are in above those 8

 

[iommi]

I'm confused...I'd have thought last 8 out meant the first 8 below the 34 at large "In"...

 

[Marsh01]

Based on the bracket project matrix here are the last eight in and the first eight out.

LAST IN
Miss St
Northwestern
Cincinnati
Xavier
Washington
Texas
Miami
Colorado St

LAST OUT
Arizona
NC ST
St Joes
Dayton
South Florida
Central Florida
VCU
Illinois

There will be bracket busters (maybe 3 or 4). I hope more as this group is terribe

Based on right now OR by selection Sunday, what teams do you think will be moving to the out or moving to the In.

I think if USF gets to 12 conference wins it will be very hard to keep them out. I know they have beaten up on bottom feeders but 12 wins in a BCS conference should get a bid.

I dont see Northwestern getting bid unles they beat Ohio State. Nor do they deserve one.

Mississippi State is one more terrible loss and one loss in the conference tournaments first round game to having their bubble burst.

I also think VCU will get in.

 

[iommi]

So Florida's #s are bad, but if they get to 12 Big East wins...they'll probably have a good shot to make it...they do lack quality wins, however.

 

[jncuse]

Re. Seton Hall

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm

The one good thing about the bracket matrix is that it allows for a consolidated view (86 brackets) which is helpful. Makes for a good quick reference.

A few flaws:
1) It is a one week trailing metric. So for some the last bracket is based on old data
2) Last 4 / First Four is based on number of people who have in their brackets. It may not be a 100% correlated with the first four out if you asked all 86 people to respond.

With respect to Seton Hall, 16 brackets were updated yesterday. They were included as a tourney team by all 16. They were 9 seed three times, 10 seed two times, and the remaining eleven brackets they were an 11,12 or 13 seed. So certainly in the recent brackets many have them as a last team in.

I expect a few brackets will come in with them out of the tourney.

 

[jncuse]

I agree with all of you on VCU. I have had VCU in for a few weeks. They don't have a great resume, but it holds up against the rest of the bubble, and they may past the "eye" test based on last year's run. They are also playing better down the stretch. I think the CAA will get two - VCU and Drexel.

 

[jncuse]

So Florida's #s are bad, but if they get to 12 Big East wins...they'll probably have a good shot to make it...they do lack quality wins, however.

IMO. the USF and West Virginia is very likely to determine who gets in or not. 12-6 will be too much to ignore if USF wins, even with all their faults.

 

[jncuse]

For reference:

Right now
West Virginia is in 84 of 86. (11th last team out based on average seed)
Seton Hall is in 86 of 86 (10th last team out based on average seed)
UConn is in 85 of 86. (12th last tean in based on average seed)

I suspect it will come in at eight, outside shot at nine. Seven could happen but highly unlikely. And if thing break right for WVU and USF at the BET, a real outside shot at 10 (talking 100 to 1 type shot)

 

[Garbs]

if USF can get 2 more wins, including BET, I think they are in