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Message: [QUOTE="jncuse, post: 1680575, member: 1969"] There is no point doing an analysis if we win. Win and we are in. This analysis will focus purely on if we lose, and what the teams behind us have to do. I am going to use the bracket matrix as the proxy for where the committee views Syracuse if it loses. Currently we are #34 (4th last in). I can certainly see us being 31, 32, 33, but let's assume for now we are #34. Let's look at all the teams above us. that could incur a result that is worse than losing to Pitt. Is that enough for us to past them? I have bolded the key games USC ( Lose to UCLA? We Probably stay behind) St. Joes (Lose to GW - we probably stay behind) Oregon St [B] (Lose to Arizona St - I'm not high on this team, so this is one team I think we jump if we both lose the first round)[/B] South Carolina (Lose to Georgia -- IMO we couldn't catch them in a both team lose scenario) Vanderbilt [B](Lose to Tennessee, this is a bad loss that may put us ahead)[/B] 31. Cincinnati [B](Lose to UConn -- really depends on who the committee thinks is better entering this thing -- us or Cincy)[/B] 32. St Bonaventure ([B]Loss to Davidson -- these teams are so close right now, us losing to a tourney team instead push us ahead)[/B] 33. VCU [B](Loss to Rhode Island - same comment as St. Bonaventure)[/B] St. Mary's [B](If they lose to Gonzaga, this can go either way)[/B] 34. Syracuse 35. UConn 36. Wichita St 37. Tulsa Another food for thought - Lunardi currently has us ahead of Oregon St, which I agree with. If Oregon St beats Arizona St, but then loses to Cal. Does that put them ahead of us. Beating Arizona St is a game that breaks the ranking? Anyway. let's assume we get one negative result that works in our favour. Se we are now up to #33. [B]So 5 teams need to pass us[/B]: Here is the entire list of teams need to do to pass us. 5 have to happen for us to be eliminated if our starting point is #33. (The math is simple -- the teams are close so if are #31 or #32, which is totally fathomable the number goes up by 1. So if the committee has us a spot ot two higher vs the A-10's of the world, then it helps us significantly. 5 of the following to happen. Seems likely, until you start trying to find them. UConn - Beat Cincy (So we probably want to cheer for Cincy in that 4/5 AAC game) Wichita St - Does a good loss by Syracuse make them pass us Tulsa - Beat Memphis (may not be enough), Beat Houston Gonzaga / BYU - Win WCC Title, and that only hurts if St. Mary's is ahead of us on the S-Curve with both teams losing. Michigan - Beat Northwestern (probably not enough), Beat Indiana Florida - Beat Arkansas (probably not enough), Beat Texas AM George Washington -- Beat George Mason, Beat St. Joes, Win in Semi's Temple - Beat East Carolina, Beat UConn or Cincy (may be enough) Ohio St - Beat Penn St, Beat Michigan St Florida St - Beat BC, Beat Virginia Tech, Beat Miami Georgia Tech - Beat Clemson, Beat Virginia (may be enough) Virginia Tech - Beat Florida St, Beat Miami (probably not enough), Win ACC Semi Alabama - Beat Ole Miss, Beat Kentucky, Beat South Carolina, LSU - Beat Vanderbilt, Beat Texas AM, and may get in without winning SEC Final Houston - WIN AAC Stanford - Beat Washington, Beat Arizona (probably not enough) win P12 semi Creighton - Beat Seton Hall, Beat Xavier (and maybe that is enough), if not win BE tourney. Legit Bubble Busters Monmouth Unknown Bubble Busters Arkansas Little Rock [B] And with Monmouth winning we are down to 4.[/B] [/QUOTE]

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