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[QUOTE="jncuse, post: 2102069, member: 1969"]
Not overly worried about the number being larger than 1 due to a lack of opportunities.

There will not be a bid stolen in the P5+1.  The ACC, B10, BE, B12, SEC have so many teams in that one of those will win their tournaments.  The P12 may only have 3 or 4 team in, but one of those 3 top teams will win that conference.

That leaves the AAC with some exposure to a third team but Cincy/SMU look real good,   I hate 2 vs 10 type deals, but I am going to say they have a 80% chance of being the winner,

The A-10 worries me the most.   I don't like VCU+Dayton vs the field.

I am fairly certain Gonzaga or St. Mary's takes care of the WCC.   My only concern is that BYU takes out St. Mary's in the process.  I would not think that is enough for them but it muddies things.

We will know more about the MVC tomorrow.  I am certainly hoping Wichita St wins because they are a 100% bid stealer, while despite your opinion, Illinois St is not a 100% bid stealer.    And the thing with Illinois St is if you use the matrix as a guide, they already have an at-large spots.

After those conferences none of the other conferences have a team I am that worried about as an at large other than Middle Tennessee St.  But they are hardly a sure thing.

So I stick to my estimate of 1.   I think 0 or 2 is in the realm of possibility as welll.
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