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[QUOTE="jncuse, post: 2102219, member: 1969"]
I changed my mind on Illinois St. to highly unlikely.    They are likely out if they lose tomorrow.

A 19-1 record in the MVC is totally empty this year.  18 of those wins are utter crap.  They went 18-0 against 9 teams.  10 of those wins were to teams with an RPI of sub 200,  The other 8 were against teams with RPI's between 140-190.   Awesome stuff!!    I guess you could argue they did better against bad teams than other bubble team.  OK maybe other bubble teams go 16-2 or 17-1  against that 18 games of crap.

But the avoiding bad loss argument only goes so far after you look at the OOC.     They lost to #230 Murray St, lost to Tulsa, lost to TCU, lost to San Francisco.  The glamour wins were against New Mexico and Tulsa at home.

But since its apples and oranges we can look at individual rankings (other than RPI) to try put them over the top.  They average around #50.  Is that enough to give them the benfit of the doubt - likely not.
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