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Message: [QUOTE="jncuse, post: 1686491, member: 1969"] [B]This week and My Assessment[/B] Friday was the key day -- it had to be. Many of our competitors would only play the first game today, and teams from the outside could only get their first big win today. I would almost prefer the ACC only ends Sunday for this reason. Given that most P5+1 went Chalk, no one can play themselves in this week other than possibly Michigan (in the P5+1) Just Michigan -- not bad, but I really thought that the number could be zero. It was not a bad result, and not big like some said it would be (Hello ESPN) The bubble busters from smaller conferences hurt much more this year -- another stinger came on Monday night with St. Mary's. The 3rd stinger of the week came with Uconn beating Cincy. This was absolutely not the better result for us. Last night I predicted that our probability at the end of today would be between 2% to 50%. That was how big today was - such a big range was needed. It could have been worse (say Florida or Ohio St had won), but the Michigan and UConn games were real negatives. If those 2 had not happened I would have proclaimed we were 50/50 on Sunday. There is still a chance for a St. Bonnie or Tulsa loss tonight that would help a bit and I may need to adjust my % below. But at the end of the day I settle on 20%, which is not much different than I expected at the beginning of the week: [LIST] [*]There was a bit of chaos this week. Vanderbilt had a bad loss. Oregon St, who I am not impressed with at all, won against Arizona St. Big Deal. They stick around. So I have Vanderbilt, Michigan, Oregon St, as P5 teams that the committee may think we are better than. They may think we are not. [*]Many of the teams ahead of us will be AAC, A-10, Small Conference Schools... leagues that have been shafted from time to time. [*]The JB factor (only in terms of breaking a tie with someone) [/LIST] There is enough chaos for fans to at least watch Selection Sunday. I will continue to follow the bubble tomorrow because it is something that interests me, but after tonight there is very little that will really shift things positively for us -- UConn beating Temple is the only meaningful one I can think of. Of course there are LSU and San Diego St that could mess things up more. But it is clear at this point that we will be nowhere near 50/50 because of Michigan and UConn today. And that is fine, we put ourselves in this position and deserve our fate. Go Orange. [/QUOTE]

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