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[QUOTE="jncuse, post: 1679141, member: 1969"]
I just can't see at this point how we don't make it if we bear Pitt -- so it becomes the bad scenario.   And as I was hinting at yesterday morning, the "unthinkable" at least has some likelihood.

No different than before, it's about the following -- but we just have a lesser resume.  It probably also helps a bit that if we lose it is vs a tourney team compared to a non tourney team.
[LIST]
[*]#1 Limited Bubble Busters
[*]#2 - Teams that are out in P5+3 (AAC, A-10, BE) confernces do not win enough confernce games... and for most it's not a matter of just winning one game.
[*]#3 - How are we ranked on the teams that  are not "locked" but still in in the committee view (and we have no idea we can only use the matrix as the best proxy available)
[/LIST]

Here is an example for the 3rd point,
- Who does the committee have ahead right now  -- Syracuse or Oregon St
- If it's Syracuse that is deemed ahead and they lose to Pitt, does Oregon beating a bad Arizona St team and then losing to Cal pull them ahead?   Maybe because they are around 90 on the RPI but maybe not.

It is quite possible that there is going to be a lack of push up from #2, and maybe not many bubble busters.  That we could always follow and make some good educated guesses on.   But whether we are #31 or #33 on the at-large rankings matters right now, and that is what is basically impossible to assess.

At this point if we lose to Pitt, and we fail to get in we have no one to blame and we deserved that fate.    But things can still work out in our way,

I see it as well less than 50%, but let's see what happens as new info comes in over the next week.
[/QUOTE]

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