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[QUOTE="pearl31, post: 1679352, member: 1531"]
More and more I think it's going to come down to two things (if we lose to Pitt):

[B] - How the "just off the radar" P5 (plus Big East) teams do in their conf tourneys: Ohio St, Michigan, Northwestern, Ga.Tech, Fla St, Stanford, Washington, Creighton, Maquette, Alabama, LSU, Florida, Georgia. These are the teams we want to lose as early as possible in their tourneys. (a few of those listed would probably have to win their tourney but would still get strong consideration if they were to make it to the champ game or even Semis)

- How the committee views the AAC and A10. Just a big bubble mess with those teams right now. There is no lock in the AAC (Cinci probably closest to it after beating SMU today) and in the A10 really only Dayton is a lock (as jn says above, many regard St.Joes as lock but I don't think so). AAC could get 1-3 teams, A10 could get 2-4 teams.[/B]

And, obviously, if a team like NC St in the ACC or UCLA in the Pac12 or Penn St in the B1G goes crazy and wins their tourney - well, you know.

And lastly need Ark St, Monmouth and Valpo to win their tourneys to keep it at Wich St as the only potential lower mid-major bid stealer.
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