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[QUOTE="jncuse, post: 1673836, member: 1969"]
I'll refer to the matrix first (consensus) then my opinion

If I refer to the bracket matrix, the consensus after tonight's Florida loss would probably be :

1.  Florida
2.  St. Bonaventure
3.  Alabama
4.  Gonzaga

All these 4 teams would probably be close to each other.    I have a hard time finding a  5th team right now -- GW, LSU, Ohio St all have alot to work to do.  I guess Ohio St would be closest, because they can jump into close to an "in" spot with a win in their next game -- if it wins at Michigan St.   Tall task.

Of those above teams, I would not be surprised to see them take Gonzaga.  It just seems that the most "oddball" calls in or out, have occurred with teams that have lower sample sizes of top 50 games played.    They have a lack of wins, but no bad losses either.    I think if the rely on the "Eye Test" for lower tier mid-majors,  the rep of Gonzaga may help them.

I am not particularly high on Tulsa or Oregon St (teams that are seen as in).   The committee has not been kind to the AAC in recent years, and Tulsa would have 11 losses as an at-large.   And I think the committee may discount all the inbred top 50 wins P12 schools are getting, and if there is to be a victim for that it would be Oregon St.

So my guess as last 4 out right now is:
1.  Tulsa
2.  Florida
3.  St Bonaventure
4.  Alabama

#5 - Ohio St (only because they jump up quickly if they win next game)

NOTE - If there are bubble busters, every team moves down a spot so the top 5 could get a bit better by Selection Sunday.   I am not impressed with them right now.
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