Bubble Watch, where art thou?

[PoppyHart]

I feel like this used to start on ESPN and CBS in mid-January or so, but I haven't seen anything yet and it's Feb. 5th.

FTLOG, who's a "lock", who "should be in", and who has "work to do"?

 

[Knicks411]

Andy Glockner has been doing one at SI for about a month

 

[Timonen]

I feel like this used to start on ESPN and CBS in mid-January or so, but I haven't seen anything yet and it's Feb. 5th.

FTLOG, who's a "lock", who "should be in", and who has "work to do"?

they've been highlighting "bracket buster" games on their scroll when game of those presumably on the bubble are upcoming...so they're not ignoring the entire concept.

 

[PoppyHart]

Andy Glockner has been doing one at SI for about a month

Thanks, and I see that CBS actually just posted something. I could swear it wasn't there on Sunday night.

 

[Knicks411]

gotta say, i'm kind of surprised; a bubble watch column has to be guaranteed clicks. like a power ranking

 

[jdubs30]

Thankfully we haven't had to worry about that the past few years

 

[Marsh01]

Ugh I remember the constant bubble watch games that were on in the 2 back to back NIT seasons. Rooting for random teams to lose on a nightly basis.

 

[NKR1978]

Ugh I remember the constant bubble watch games that were on in the 2 back to back NIT seasons. Rooting for random teams to lose on a nightly basis.

Aside from the 06 BET, those three teams from 06-08 were incredibly forgettable. And even in 06 we were on the wrong side of the bubble going into the BET. Don't think we were safely in until we beat UConn that year.

 

[heresjohnny88]

Aside from the 06 BET, those three teams from 06-08 were incredibly forgettable. And even in 06 we were on the wrong side of the bubble going into the BET. Don't think we were safely in until we beat UConn that year.

Agree. Only memory from that 06-07 team was beating Gtown in the dome (when we rushed the court). Gtown was loaded that year. Didn't lose again until FF.

 

[jncuse]

Bubble is weak this year

I do a bracket based on the projected data on www.rpiforcast.com, primarily because I am a loser who finds it interesting. It helps me to see what games matter at this time of the year I guess.

I had Syracuse as the last #2 seed, playing Harvard as the 15 seed. Harvard would move up to 14, but right now the 14/15/16 seeds are stronger then they actually will be because we assume conference leader will win the conference tourney.


My last teams in were - BYU, Colorado, Temple, Lasalle, and Maryland

Here were the teams I considered for the last spots:

Illinois
Iowa
Boise St
Air Force
Villanova

FSU
Virginia
Stanford
Cal
Indiana St
Detroit
NewMexSt
Lehigh
SoDakotaSt

Ugly.

 

[Knicks411]

Bubble is weak this year

not saying you are wrong, but i feel like we hear that every year

I had Syracuse as the last #2 seed, playing Harvard as the 15 seed.

Interesting; you had then as #8 last year? Seems really low to me.

 

[jncuse]

not saying you are wrong, but i feel like we hear that every year
.

Every year lately people say that no way power conference X team is a tourney team…. And yet they are a tourney team. Te bubble is getting weaker over the past few years due to the relative decline of the power six. Nobody wants to take a 9-7 or 10-8 or 10-6 team from a strong non power conference – even if they deserve it – as a result some bad power six teams rise above the bubble.

So perhaps compared to last year it’s no more weaker. But as a trend the bubble has been weaker the last tree or so years…. Add in the tree extra teams as well, as some effect as well.

 

[jncuse]

Interesting; you had then as #8 last year? Seems really low to me.

Last year Harvard was 25-4, and RPI around 40. The projection for this year was 18-9, and an RPI around 108. Harvard’s KPom rating last year was 44, this year it’s 114. So its two totally different teams. Last year they were in contention for an at large – not this year.

As for the 8 seed last year – they ended up at 12. Te error I continuously make in my projections is ranking very strong lower mid majors (tat would be at lare teams) over the mediocre power six conference teams…. It’s a mistake I always make.

Te 14 seeds I currently have are Valpo, Stony Brook, Davidson, and Steve Austin. Te committee tends to use power rankings to seed the 14-16 teams. It won’t do that for bubble teams – they have separate metrics for that. I don’t waste much time on the 14-16 – they are merely ranked by the KP rating… even if I used RPI Harvard would still end up on the 15 line I believe,

You must remember the 13 and 14 seeds are much stronger today tan come tourney time. Projections don’t identify any upset in low conference tourneys.

 

[Knicks411]

Sorry, I mean you had SU as #8 last year? You said they were the last #2; is that what you meant?

You must remember the 13 and 14 seeds are much stronger today tan come tourney time. Projections don’t identify any upset in low conference tourneys.

Yup, and this can also serve to tighten up the bubble a little bit.

 

[Jake]

After being on the bubble for what seemed like a decade, if I never hear that word again, I'll be fine.

 

[jncuse]

Sorry, I mean you had SU as #8 last year? You said they were the last #2; is that what you meant?



Yup, and this can also serve to tighten up the bubble a little bit.

Oops my bad. My Syracuse projection was for tis year. I really went off on a unnecessary arvard rant lol.

 

[Knicks411]

Sorry, don't know why I thought you meant last year. Good stuff on the Harvard rant; I didn't really think about it but it does seem like you're righ tabout how they seed the AQ's at the bottom

 

[PoppyHart]

Oops my bad. My Syracuse projection was for tis year. I really went off on a unnecessary arvard rant lol.

What u got against "h"s?

 

[jncuse]

What u got against "h"s?

And g. Keyboard is broken. Some words don’t get spell checked on word before I paste my post.

Im just oin to start postin witout eiter and let you fers fiure it te ell out. My posts are mostly jibberis anyway.

 

[jdubs30]

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch?id=144

 

[MyMeloMyMan]

I cant quite put my finger on why almost all current and former Cinci players rub me the wrong way.

 

[jec1521]

Aside from the 06 BET, those three teams from 06-08 were incredibly forgettable. And even in 06 we were on the wrong side of the bubble going into the BET. Don't think we were safely in until we beat UConn that year.

I don't think we were ever safely in until we won the BET that year. We lost to depaul by ****ing 40.

The 06-07 team was screwed though.

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