Burning questions for Cuse football 2018

[billsin01]

Figured I'd try to get some discussion started since the board is woefully thin on actual football discussion beyond being excited for the season and apparel company conjecture. Figured this could be sort of a de facto preview thread since we're all itching to get to actual games to see what this team looks like.

So with that, some questions I have heading into the season.

Is it me or does this season remind anyone else of 1984?
No, I'm not talking about the Nebraska upset, I"m talking about the Orwell classic. (Rim shot!!) I'm waiting for dino to start a presser with, "Comrades ..."

Can we finally get our running game going?
So Babers' arrival brought with it the expected offensive improvement in terms of yardage (we're up ~100 ypg game since '15) but it has been surprisingly futile from a scoring standpoint. 27 and 25 ppg (our past two seasons) are no better than we did in 15 in Shafer's last season. Some of the blame probably falls on a variety of factors (injuries, Dungey could be better, our WRs have been good but not elite ...), but it's hard not to take a long, hard look at the offensive line and the running backs.

If you had told me when Dino took over that our starting running back would have rushed for a total of 1000 yards (roughly) and 8 TDs of the course of the next two -- TWO -- seasons combined I would have laughed you out of the room. Wins being hard to come by, defensive struggles, more of a focus on the passing game -- fine, I would get all that. But it's crazy to think we haven't had a guy even approach 1,000 yards in this offense.

So this year, more experienced and deeper offensive line (return of Servais, addition of Martin) and a veteran and deeper RB corps (Strickland, Neal, Pierre ...), can we finally get this thing moving. I have to believe that a better OL/RB combo would be a huge key to unlocking a bit more red zone success and, therefore, more scoring.

The bottom line with this offense is that you occasionally are going to have to outscore teams to win. We haven't been able to do that. If there is one key to this season, the OL actually developing into one of the better OLs in the ACC would be a massive plus.

Is this the year we see Dungey break out?
There is some talk of DeVito and I'm sure we'll see him at some point but I have a hard time believing he's anywhere close to claiming the starting job on week one. If we assume Dungey is the man, a healthy year from him would put him on top of the all-time passing leaders on the Hill (only needs like 2,800 yards, which he nearly hit in 9 games in 16). But it's hard to believe we're in Year 4 and he has yet to exceed 15 TDs.

Now the receivers (more on them later) will be a question mark but I really believe this system helps in that regard. Etta-Tawo did nothing at UMD, came here and exploded but still didn't get any run in the NFL. Ishmael and Phillips were two really nice players, but neither turned a lot of heads leading up to the NFL draft either. Great receivers would be awesome, but I don't think the lack of big names hurt Dungey all that much.

Love to see a healthy year and productive year out of a kid who has clearly given his heart and soul to this program. Not sure I'd bet on the health part but some improvement as a passer combined with a better running game should mean good things.

Do we have an ACC level RB or WR?
There have been nice reports on the young players -- more on that later -- and I'm holding out hope for Neal even though he's a bit smaller, but I don't really know what we have here. I haven't seen anything from strickland in three years that gets me excited and Neal is a nice player but an ACC guy? WR, I actually really like Butler but I know he's really struggled to catch the ball consistently, which is an issue. And even if he steps up, do Riley/Custis/the Johnsons give us what we need there? I honestly am in the dark on what we have here and I'm a bit down on the returning RB group, but hopefully we see some kids break out.

Is this the year of the young player?
There are always some young kids who find their way to the field but I do sort of wonder if this is a year where we see a ton of young players assume huge roles. It's hard to do but it happens and man, there are some serious opportunity. RB is a question and Jarveon Howard appears to at least have some solid promise. WR is wide open and the young players there seem to have some talent (hard to tell when it's only the players commenting, but I won't dwell on it). LB is wide open and we have some good first- and second-year players there. DB has more veterans but it's not a unit that has played well either so you have to wonder if some of the higher end young talent like Trill Williams can't move into the starting unit as the season progresses.

Not sure how likely it is, but I don't think it's entirely crazy to think we could get to the end of the season and see DeVito/Howard/the 2nd-year Johnsons/Queeley/Williams/Cisqo and a young LB or two playing essentially starting roles. Will be interesting to watch (note: I'd still rather have most guys redshirting if we can).

Is the DL as good as we think/hope it can be?
I'm perhaps a bit old school but I tend to think the DL is a huge key to having a solid/good defense. I know there are questions at LB but I think that group and the DBs will be helped if this unit is as good as the reports seem to suggest.

How important is it to win games?
I'm of the believe that Dino is under *some* pressure (not much in the sense that no one's job is on the line) to win for a couple reasons. One, I think he himself wants those expectations -- he's said as much in interviews. I believe he firmly expects to at least compete for a bowl berth. Secondly, I think there is a reality that we are never going to have a sked full of cupcakes -- yes, it's a tough schedule, but these are the teams we have to beat. Third, we have enough obstacles to recruiting, one thing we can do to help ourselves is put a competitive team on the field.

I'm completely fine with setting reasonable expectations, but I really think the goal should be 6 wins and anything less than 5 with a chance at a bowl birth heading into the last week will be a disappointment. Not a disaster by any means, but just disappointing.

 

[Nahson]

Yes

 

[billsin01]

Yes

Exactly.

 

[CuseCrew08]

Something you didn't touch on that I think is important is the improved O-Line should allow Rav Pierce to release and add a weapon down the middle of the field. He was under utilized in the passing game last year and I think it was because he was forced to stay in and block on passing downs.

I can see him being Dungey's go to player this year.

 

[TheCusian]

Great post, good read.

For me, the central question is: can our offense be effecient enough to take the Babers system/tempo/philosophy from “difficult to prepare for” to a serious beast that starts to look like Bowling Green under Babers or early years Briles at Baylor (yuck).

 

[billsin01]

Something you didn't touch on that I think is important is the improved O-Line should allow Rav Pierce to release and add a weapon down the middle of the field. He was under utilized in the passing game last year and I think it was because he was forced to stay in and block on passing downs.

I can see him being Dungey's go to player this year.

Yeah, good call. Hope to see him healthy. He should at the very least help with red zone offense.

 

[billsin01]

Great post, good read.

For me, the central question is: can our offense be effecient enough to take the Babers system/tempo/philosophy from “difficult to prepare for” to a serious beast that starts to look like Bowling Green under Babers or early years Briles at Baylor (yuck).

Yeah, I think that is true. I guess I was looking at it in a more granular way, kind of attempting to dive into the different facets of that question. That's got to be the hope because I really feel we need to start winning a few games to at least incrementally help recruiting which should allow us to be a bit more competitive in all three phases.

RB is a huge question, IMO. I just don't see it with Strickland. I've seen a couple flashes from Moe but I'm not totally sold on him either and Pierre was not a big impact guy as a frosh. Nothing inherently wrong with any of the three but I do think we need a significant upgrade here (and like a lot of people will argue, an improved offensive line could be part of that). Not terribly concerned with what form it takes but hoping to see improvement.

 

[Dino2112]

Can we run , can we scare the other school we can , at this point we are home

 

[Ish88888]

I think this team leans on the strength of both lines this year, especially the Dline. We have impact players there, required playing the T2.

 

[CuseCactus]

I expect we'll be better in the red zone - with more experienced o-line, running backs and a senior QB. Scoring will be in the mid-30's.

We will also be more active on defense - likely getting slightly more turnovers than last year and/or more quarterback pressures.

I'm in full Kool-Aid mode.

Can't wait.

 

[Chip]

Great read. To me, topic #1 is how healthy we can be, especially on D. That's what killed last season. QB as well, but that's a different depth story this year, at least 1/2.

I think we can feel better about the 2nd team defense, to the point that they get reps in key spots and help stretch the D productivity this season. Front 4 and back 4, it looks like backups with enough size and/or speed. LB is probably the same, but there are no clear cut 1s, so give everyone time, keep everyone fresh.

 

[shu 49]

I think this team leans on the strength of both lines this year, especially the Dline. We have impact players there, required playing the T2.

Agree wholeheartedly. Open up running game and on backside shut em down!

 

[OrangeTarheel]

Wide receiver is a huge question mark. Am not worried about RB, we have experience and durability there.

And I don't think Dino is remotely on a hot seat. If we go 4-8 again he still won't be on the hot seat. Our rebuild is a long term project and that doesn't mean improvement is linear. We all think Dino is the right coach for us and it's just a matter of time.

Other than those things I agree wholeheartedly.

I always refresh myself with preseason Kool Aid so I am always ready for big points, blowouts and new personal records entering the year.

 

[Ish88888]

Wide receiver is a huge question mark. Am not worried about RB, we have experience and durability there.

And I don't think Dino is remotely on a hot seat. If we go 4-8 again he still won't be on the hot seat. Our rebuild is a long term project and that doesn't mean improvement is linear. We all think Dino is the right coach for us and it's just a matter of time.

Other than those things I agree wholeheartedly.

I always refresh myself with preseason Kool Aid so I am always ready for big points, blowouts and new personal records entering the year.

Yup, we were one year of grads and new recruits away from 9-3, imo. Thats ish and erv as seniors, this Oline and Dline, and a better secondary with young, athletic kids.

 

[Scooch]

Great post.

 

[gbo]

OP, can I get this write up for Clemson too? Thanks in advance

 

[blizz]

A couple of run game thoughts. The most basic tactical principle in this offense is to spread the defense out as much as possible in order to 1) run the ball against a favorable box or 2) exploit match-ups on the outside when the defense elects to be sound against the run.
To make #1 viable, I see two things that have to happen: 1) The defense has to respect a deep threat on both outside flanks. By definition this takes a defender out of the box. Ideally you want 6 defenders with coverage responsibilities against 4 receivers. This leaves 5 against the run. 2) Oline has to be able to consistently execute blocks to cover the 5 run defenders. Ideally this gets your running back in a 1 v 1 against a safety.
We haven't had either 1 or 2 the last two years. AET was a consistent deep threat in year 1. No deep threat on the other side. Last year, Ish made his lunch on stop routes and fades, and situationally he could beat 1 on 1's against a short field as he was a master of leverage. Ish didn't have the top end though to be a deep threat everywhere on the field.
The Oline has been pretty bad run blocking, particularly in executing zone blocks where there is responsibility to climb up to a linebacker. Last year I thought they improved at moving the front but still were usually late climbing up to defeat the run fit.
So, the point in all this is to try to illustrate the fact that the offense has been handicapped. I'm optimistic that the pieces are in place to see improvement. Butler, Custis, Johnson & Johnson, and Riley all have that home run speed that in theory creates the threat of the deep ball. I'm also optimistic that the additions of Martin and Roberts are going to change the dynamics in the trenches as those two are both capable of sticking blocks on the front that will allow Adams and Servais to quickly climb off a double.

 

[SmilinBob]

I expect we'll be better in the red zone - with more experienced o-line, running backs and a senior QB. Scoring will be in the mid-30's.

We will also be more active on defense - likely getting slightly more turnovers than last year and/or more quarterback pressures.

I'm in full Kool-Aid mode.

Can't wait.

Like squeezing OJ out of a cactus, eh?

The red zone is a big question mark and along with that pushing in from the 3 and in. If this OL can push and clear into the end zone with a high efficiency from up close, I'll be a happy camper. I expect them to be a heck of a lot better than the past 2 years and turning FG's into TD's would be huge. Curious to see what their 5 yard in efficiency was for each of the past 2 years. Actually...the stats on all redzone 20/15/10/5. Seemed to be too much meat on the bone as coach would say in the past and sure would like to be cleaning that bone bare this year.

 

[Cuse12]

My largest worries come from the WR spot. I love the youth WRs we have, but being the nature of a freshmen in college, they are still a year away from being in ACC shape I would say.

Luckily we have Ravian Pierce who should be on an NFL roster come next season.

Hopefully he is the key to helping our receivers get more one on one match ups and having DBs/Safeties float towards the middle of the field worrying about our beast of a TE, and allow some over the top plays on the outside.

I expect to have some ugly drops and plays the first few games out of the WR unit, but the past two years we have had a WR emerge. Who will it be? Lets hope someone rises to the challenge. Remember the rumblings were that AET had bad hands and look what happened. Lets hope D. Butler follows that storyline.

 

[billsin01]

OP, can I get this write up for Clemson too? Thanks in advance

Sure -- I'll do it for Clemson. We would take every single player on your roster, give you our players and play any offense or defense and be pretty fine with it.

 

[billsin01]

A couple of run game thoughts. The most basic tactical principle in this offense is to spread the defense out as much as possible in order to 1) run the ball against a favorable box or 2) exploit match-ups on the outside when the defense elects to be sound against the run.
To make #1 viable, I see two things that have to happen: 1) The defense has to respect a deep threat on both outside flanks. By definition this takes a defender out of the box. Ideally you want 6 defenders with coverage responsibilities against 4 receivers. This leaves 5 against the run. 2) Oline has to be able to consistently execute blocks to cover the 5 run defenders. Ideally this gets your running back in a 1 v 1 against a safety.
We haven't had either 1 or 2 the last two years. AET was a consistent deep threat in year 1. No deep threat on the other side. Last year, Ish made his lunch on stop routes and fades, and situationally he could beat 1 on 1's against a short field as he was a master of leverage. Ish didn't have the top end though to be a deep threat everywhere on the field.
The Oline has been pretty bad run blocking, particularly in executing zone blocks where there is responsibility to climb up to a linebacker. Last year I thought they improved at moving the front but still were usually late climbing up to defeat the run fit.
So, the point in all this is to try to illustrate the fact that the offense has been handicapped. I'm optimistic that the pieces are in place to see improvement. Butler, Custis, Johnson & Johnson, and Riley all have that home run speed that in theory creates the threat of the deep ball. I'm also optimistic that the additions of Martin and Roberts are going to change the dynamics in the trenches as those two are both capable of sticking blocks on the front that will allow Adams and Servais to quickly climb off a double.

Nice post -- I'm not sure we've rid ourselves of those handicaps but I do think one major key is getting to blocks on the second level and you have to imagine that a decently talented, veteran offensive line with a bit of depth (for once) *should* be better at that. That alone would be nice for whichever ball carrier ends up being the leading rusher.

Additionally, you have to figure we're improved at RB with all three RBs from last year back (as a random aside, I'm still sort of surprised we didn't see more of Erv in the backfield. Always loved him running the ball) and a pretty intriguing frosh on the roster. Somewhere in there we should be able to find a decent runner (if I had to bet, I'd go with Neal). We desperately need that.

 

[billsin01]

My largest worries come from the WR spot. I love the youth WRs we have, but being the nature of a freshmen in college, they are still a year away from being in ACC shape I would say.

Luckily we have Ravian Pierce who should be on an NFL roster come next season.

Hopefully he is the key to helping our receivers get more one on one match ups and having DBs/Safeties float towards the middle of the field worrying about our beast of a TE, and allow some over the top plays on the outside.

I expect to have some ugly drops and plays the first few games out of the WR unit, but the past two years we have had a WR emerge. Who will it be? Lets hope someone rises to the challenge. Remember the rumblings were that AET had bad hands and look what happened. Lets hope D. Butler follows that storyline.

Though I'm with everyone else in the thought that WR is a pretty big question mark, I'm not as concerned about that unit as I am RB for some reason. I mean, the system itself should make the group somewhere in the neighborhood of adequate and, particularly if you believe in some of the young talent, maybe even pretty decent. Amba was great and Erv and Ish were a solid pair, but none of the three turned NFL heads. And, whoever is running routes, will be doing so with either a veteran and pretty proven passer (even if he's not a perfect fit for the O) in Dungey or a really promising second-year guy in DeVito.

So, as odd as it seems, I feel like the bigger question remains the RBs. Just my opinion.

 

[upperdeck]

one thing that ISH and ERV did was catch the ball.. Ish made catches in traffic, Irv got open .

i think the roster now has more upside just because of bigger/faster/stronger but will they hold onto the ball consistently enough and make the correct reads to be in the open spots.

if the running game we saw the last 2-3 games improves just a bit more the red zone issues happen less often and pts go up. lets hope